Fulham vs Brentford Prediction | Opta Analyst

We look ahead to Monday’s Premier League game at Craven Cottage with our Fulham vs Brentford prediction and preview. The two local rivals will compete for bragging rights in a West London derby.

Fulham vs Brentford Stats: The Key Insights

• The Opta supercomputer has Fulham as the favourites to win this one, with the hosts victorious in 46% of its 10,000 pre-match simulations.
• Fulham have lost six of their last seven Premier League games played on a Monday night, but did win 3-2 against Wolves in their last such match in November last year.
• Coming into this matchday, only West Ham’s Premier League matches (275) had seen more shots than Brentford’s nine games this season (268).

Fulham host Brentford on Monday night as the West London rivals again lock horns in the Premier League at Craven Cottage.

There’s just a point between the two teams in the table, with Brentford currently just ahead having picked up 13 points from their opening nine games.

That’s despite a series of leaky defensive displays from Thomas Frank’s men, conceding 18 goals in their opening nine Premier League games this season.

That’s their most after nine league games since 1961-62 (19), while it’s the first time the Bees haven’t kept a clean sheet by this stage since 2015-16.

However, Brentford’s attacking prowess has meant they came into this matchday in the top half of the table, shipping eight goals in their last three Premier League games but winning both of the matches in which they’ve conceded three goals in that time (5-3 vs Wolves, 4-3 vs Ipswich).

Prior to that run, Brentford hadn’t won a Premier League match when they’d conceded three or more goals (four draws, 19 defeats).

However, Fulham have a strong recent record in London derbies, with the Cottagers unbeaten in their last five such matches. They last had a longer unbeaten run against fellow London sides during the 2006-07 campaign (seven in a row).

They haven’t quite hit the attacking heights of Brentford so far this season, scoring 12 goals to their rivals’ 18, though that hasn’t been helped by the finishing of their forwards.

Andreas Pereira has certainly been providing the opportunities, with only Bukayo Saka (27) creating more chances than the former Manchester United man’s 26. However, none of the opportunities Pereira has created have been converted by his team-mates.

Pereira has set up 11 different players, with only Tottenham’s Dejan Kulusevski creating a chance for more team-mates with 12.

Brentford have attacking firepower of their own, especially considering the form of Bryan Mbeumo, who has scored eight Premier League goals so far this season.

Only Manchester City’s Erling Haaland has scored more (11), and Mbeumo has netted 11 goals in his last 13 London derbies, including two goals at Craven Cottage in a 3-0 win last season.

Yoanne Wissa has chipped in too. He has been involved in 10 goals in his last eight Premier League appearances for Brentford (seven goals, three assists), scoring or assisting every 52 minutes over that run.

In terms of team news, Brentford could welcome the return of Kristoffer Ajer, though the likes of Aaron Hickey and Rico Henry remain out with long-term injuries.

For Fulham, Joachim Andersen will likely return from suspension, while Carlos Vinicius and Timothy Castagne could also feature. However, Sasa Lukic is looking more likely to be fit again towards the end of November.

Fulham vs Brentford Head-to-Head

Fulham have won just one of their last nine league games against Brentford (three draws, five defeats), beating them 3-2 in the first ever Premier League meeting between the sides in August 2022.

Brentford, meanwhile, have only lost one of their last 11 away league games against Fulham (five wins, five draws), failing to score just once at Craven Cottage in that run.

The last derby between the sides came back in May when the two teams played out a goalless draw at the Gtech Community Stadium on their way to comfortable Premier League safety.

Fulham vs Brentford Prediction

The Opta supercomputer is backing Fulham to claim the bragging rights on Monday, winning 46% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations.

Brentford could move closer to the European spots with a victory, and they take the three points in 29.7% of simulations. A draw, meanwhile, occurs 24.3% of the time.

Despite their slight superiority over Fulham this season, Brentford are expected to finish just below their rivals come the end of the season. The supercomputer rates 13th as Brentford’s most probable finish, relegated in just 1.51% of simulations, while Fulham are predicted to finish 12th.

Fulham vs Brentford Predicted Lineups

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off on Monday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

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