Finland vs England Prediction: UEFA Nations League Match Preview

England are predicted to get back to winning ways on Sunday. We look ahead to what is now a crucial UEFA Nations League game with our Finland vs England prediction and preview.

Finland vs England Stats: The Key Insights

Despite slipping up at home to Greece last time out, England are huge favourites to win this Nations League match, victorious in 72.8% of the Opta supercomputer’s pre-game simulations.
England are unbeaten in their 12 meetings with Finland – the joint-most they’ve faced any nation without ever losing.
Finland’s Joel Pohjanpalo has scored six goals in his last eight home international starts.

England will look to get their UEFA Nations League campaign back on track on Sunday after falling to a shock 2-1 defeat at home to Greece on Thursday that has thrown Group 2 in League B wide open.

Anything but winning a group also containing Finland and Republic of Ireland would be seen as a colossal failure on the Three Lions’ part, but at the midway point in the competition – with three games played out of six – they are second in the group behind Greece.

Greece were fully deserving of the win at Wembley earlier this week; they had the ball in the back of the England net a frankly astonishing five times in total, with three goals ruled out for offside either by a late flag or a VAR review. The three ruled-out goals don’t contribute to the stats, and yet Greece still matched their opponents for shots attempted (12 each) and had more shots on target (3) than England (2).

Interim manager Lee Carsley needs a big response, and not just because England’s chances of winning their group and gaining promotion back to League A will almost certainly rely on them winning all of their remaining matches.

Carsley also needs a win to boost his rapidly dwindling hopes of earning the manager’s job on a permanent basis. Those hopes will have taken a massive hit with Thursday’s defeat to Greece.

They will be confident of getting a positive result here, though, against a Finland side who are bottom of the group and yet to pick up a single point from their three games. England won the reverse fixture at Wembley 2-0 last month.

England have lost two of their last four competitive games – a run that includes their Euro 2024 final defeat to Spain – having lost only one of their previous 20 such matches. However, they have won four and drawn two of their last six away games, making this their longest unbeaten streak in away matches since a run of 12 between March 2013 and October 2015.

Finland shouldn’t be taken entirely for granted, however. Striker Joel Pohjanpalo has scored six goals in his last eight home international starts, including the opening goal in a 2-1 defeat to the Republic of Ireland earlier this week. Each of the striker’s last six goals for his country have come at the Helsinki Olympic Stadium, where this game will be played.

Carsley will hope to have Harry Kane back after the Bayern Munich striker missed the defeat to Greece. Jude Bellingham could again play a key role, having been directly involved in eight goals in his last 12 England appearances (5 goals, 3 assists). Since the start of 2023 only Kane (15) has scored more goals for England than Bellingham, who is level with Bukayo Saka on five. Saka, meanwhile, will likely miss this game having limped off at Wembley with an injury.

Finland vs England Head-to-Head

England are undefeated in 12 games against Finland, winning 10 and drawing two of those games. It is the joint-most they’ve faced any nation without ever suffering defeat (alongside Bulgaria).

England won the reverse fixture at Wembley last month 2-0 thanks to two goals from Kane, who earned his 100th England cap on the night.

However, this is the first game in Finland between the sides since October 2000 – a goalless draw in a World Cup qualifier. Finland have drawn two of their last three home games against England.