Fight Picks: Canelo Alvarez vs. Jaime Munguia

Super middleweight Ring champion Canelo Alvarez will face his unbeaten Mexican countryman Jaime Munguia at the T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, on Saturday.

With national bragging rights up for grabs, a fierce battle is expected when both throw down on Amazon Prime Video and on DAZN Pay-Per-View. The event begins at 8 p.m. ET/ 5 p.m. PT.

Canelo, rated at No. 4 by The Ring at pound-for-pound, boasts a cache of outstanding wins over Shane Mosley (UD 12), Austin Trout (UD 12), Erislandy Lara (SD 12), Miguel Cotto (UD 12), Gennadiy Golovkin (MD 12), Daniel Jacobs (UD 12), Sergey Kovalev (KO 11), Callum Smith (UD 12), Billy Joe Saunders (RTD 8) and Caleb Plant (TKO 11).

The 33-year-old is a modern day great, having captured world titles at junior middleweight, middleweight, super middleweight and light heavyweight. The Mexican superstar was upset by Dmitry Bivol (UD 12) but has bounced back by beating Golovkin (UD 12), John Ryder (UD 12) and, most recently, whitewashing Jermell Charlo (UD 12).

Munguia, rated at No. 5-rated by The Ring at super middleweight, came from nowhere to bludgeon Sadam Ali (TKO 4) and lift the WBO junior middleweight title. He made five defenses, most notably defeating Liam Smith (UD 12). The power-punching Mexican then stepped up to middleweight and established himself further by beating the experienced trio of Gary O’Sullivan (TKO 11), Kamil Szeremeta (RTD 6) and Gabriel Rosado (UD 12).

The 27-year-old had conversations to face WBC titlist Jermall Charlo that ended in a frustrating stalemate. Weight issues saw him move up and edge past Sergiy Dereyanchenko (UD 12) in a classic and then impressively bludgeon common opponent Ryder (TKO 9).

Canelo (60-2-2, 39 knockouts) will have a vast edge in experience, but how key will that be? Meanwhile, Munguia (43-0, 34 KOs) has youth on his side and will likely try to force Canelo to exchange and fight at a higher pace than he’d like. Can Canelo slow the pace or will Munguia be able to initiate a fire-fight? Canelo hasn’t scored a stoppage win in his four fights since he stopped Plant in November 2021. Will the added spice of an all-Mexican showdown bring out the very best of Canelo? However, it should also be remembered this encounter is just a few months shy of Canelo’s 34th birthday, and his 64 fights and countless rounds of sparring and training are taking a toll on his body. It appears he isn’t quite what he was, but will Munguia find the time is right to unseat the king?

Online gambling group William Hill lists Canelo as a 1/5 (-600) favorite, while Munguia is priced at 4/1 (+400); the draw is 16/1 (+1600).

Here’s how the experts see it:

THE RING 

ANSON WAINWRIGHT: CANELO UD

“Any time two Mexicans are scheduled to clash in a world title fight you can expect war. When you look at both men, how passionate they are and stubborn, I can see no different here. That said, while Canelo looks to have seen better days, he’s still a heck of a fighter and the class of the super middleweight division. I expect Munguia to put up a really good fight but Canelo has more experience and is a better boxer. Munguia is tough and takes a good shot and will be there pushing the older fighter. But he will be a step behind and lose a 12-round unanimous decision, even though he will come out with credit for his effort.”

LEE GROVES: CANELO UD

“Munguia is the best possible opponent not named Benavidez or Morrell, and the winner will be the man who will be able to impose his preferred work rate and distance on the other. Munguia would like a fast pace at longer range while Alvarez would want a slower-paced trench war. We’ll probably get a bit of both here, and while I believe Munguia will administer a stern test, Alvarez will probably prevail because of his vast experience and his superior marksmanship.”

DIEGO MORILLA: CANELO UD

“One exciting prediction can be made about this fight: expect Canelo to hit the canvas, and pretty hard too. I am guessing full backwards seat-of-his-pants knockdown with the champ springing back up at around six in the count, but I’ll take a one-knee three-count too. Before that, and especially after that, I expect a war. This one’s for all the Mexican bragging rights and more. Both (especially Munguia) have proved able to defy all odds and turn the tables on their opponents to rally back to a dramatic victory. This will be one of such fights. Politics and smart money will say it’s Canelo’s fight to lose, but it will take every ounce of energy, punching power and IQ for him to get past what I believe will be a prime Munguia.”

MARTY MULCAHEY: CANELO UD

“Canelo Alvarez is slowing down and has exited his prime. However, I think speed or exceptional sense of distance (AKA Bivol) is what will derail Alvarez next and Munguia does not possess either of those traits. Munguia will have his moments and give Canelo problems with sporadic volume punching and that swarming style. Canelo has handled those traits before, with aplomb, and will do so again taking punishment in the first four rounds before timing and countering Munguia with increasing efficiency. There could be a late stoppage, but Munguia’s boxing ability has increased to the point where I see him losing a unanimous decision. A comparable fight historically is the Michael Carbajal-Jorge Arce thriller, in which Arce just lacked that bit of experience to derail a Hall of Fame opponent.”

NORM FRAUENHEIM: CANELO UD

“The temptation is to pick Jaime Munguia in a huge upset. He’s younger. He was surprisingly athletic in his stoppage of John Ryder. But Canelo’s stubborn pride, long resume and timely body shots provide an advantage hard to overcome, especially in a fight for the Mexican turf still owned by Canelo. Canelo prevails. This time.  But if Munguia keeps it close — close enough to argue he deserves a rematch – he’ll put himself in line for another time. He might win that one.”

Canelo Alvarez presses the action against Jermell Charlo during their super middleweight title fight in Las Vegas – Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images

BOXING INSIDERS

DUKE MCKENZIE (FORMER THREE-DIVISION TITLEHOLDER/TV ANALYST): CANELO UD

“There are many skeptics that think Canelo is there for the taking with 60 fights on his resume and a lot of miles on the clock. Is this really the time to fight a young undefeated champion in his own right? In Munguia, to me, this comes down to experience at the highest level and it will take a brave man to bet against Canelo. Munguia’s style is tailor made for Canelo. We know Canelo can box and fight. On that basis, I can see one winner, Canelo by unanimous decision.”

STEVE FARHOOD (TV ANALYST): CANELO UD

“Canelo may not be the fighter he was in his prime, but he’s comfortable at 168-pounds and should prove too skillful for Munguia. Canelo by unanimous decision.”

SERGIO MORA (FORMER CHAMPION/ COMMENTATOR): CANELO TKO 10

“Canelo-Munguia should be a good old fashioned Mexican war! Munguia’s youth and size will be a big factor here. If Canelo can’t hurt him early this fight can get harder and harder for him. I see Canelo starting fast, then controlling Munguia with jabs and head movement. The later the fight goes the more Munguia will be effective. Ultimately, Munguia’s aggression will fall into the hands of the more experienced Mexican. Canelo TKO 10.”

JOLENE MIZZONE (MANAGER): MUNGUIA UD

“Everyone is going to say Canelo should win everyday of the week, but the reason for my Munguia pick is, I have seen Munguia get better in his past couple of fights. I have not seen the same with Canelo. Lets also remember that Canelo has over 60 fights at some point you get old in there, all the training can’t help that. I am not going to lie, my pick can be for the simple reason that I want to see Munguia win, and Canelo pass that torch, which is good for boxing. That is how it was done in the past and it works!”

CAMILLE ESTEPHAN (PROMOTER, EYE OF THE TIGER): CANELO UD

“I don’t think this will be a walk in the park for Canelo. Munguia will want to put it on him but I think Canelo’s IQ and ring generalship will be too much for Munguia. I see this going the distance with a unanimous decision for Canelo.”

TOM GRAY (FORMER MANAGING EDITOR FOR THE RING): CANELO UD

“This is a terrific clash of styles and we could be in for a Fight of the Year contender. Munguia’s best chance of victory is to outwork Canelo. He’s a much busier fighter and he has youth on his side. The only downside is that this strategy will open the challenger up to Canelo’s vaunted counter punching. Canelo isn’t a knockout artist at 168, but he hits hard enough to keep an opponent honest. I think the fight will be even through the first six rounds, but the champ’s sharp-shooting will slow Munguia down in the second half and he’ll pull away on the cards.”

JOE ROTONDA (MATCHMAKER, MAIN EVENTS): CANELO TKO

“This is a fun fight, we know what Canelo brings to the table, he’s been in so many big fights over the years. I think the question is whether Munguia attempts to seize this moment or not. Munguia has never faced an elite fighter, this will be the biggest fight of his career thus far. As entertaining as I believe this fight will be, I do not think there is anything that Munguia has in his arsenal that Canelo has not seen time and time again. I foresee a very entertaining and action-packed fight for as long as this lasts, but in the end I think Canelo’s power will be too much, ultimately leading to a stoppage win for Saul Alvarez.”

ROBERT DIAZ (MATCHMAKER): CANELO TKO 10

“Mexican vs Mexican, experience vs. youth. Munguia has been groomed for this moment and the timing is perfect, he has matured very well and now with the great Freddie Roach, who will have a great fight plan makes him that much more dangerous. Munguia will come to win as he knows the significance that a victory will mean to his legacy and his career. Canelo has nothing more to prove but its his character and his style to keep on challenging himself and that what will motivate him in this bout. Questions: will it be an all-out Mexican War? Is Munguia too fresh? Is Canelo on the decline after so many years and fights? Is Canelo far to experienced and is the jump in opposition too much for Munguia? This will all be answered on May 4th. The atmosphere will be electric as you will have all Mexico in attendance cheering for both and they will provide for another classic in the long list of Mexico vs. Mexico Greatest Hits. I see a tactical fight in the first three or four rounds and both waiting for the other to make the first mistake, after falling behind on cards Freddie will send Munguia out to let his hands go and with that we will now have a fight on our hands. What makes this fight exciting is that Munguia throws punches in bunches but also get hit, this will be key for Canelo who will once again surprise many with his slipping and making Munguia miss along with his counter punching ability. The fifth through seventh will have fans on their feet but the end will be near in the eighth and or ninth round as Canelo is now landing the harder punches. The fans will leave happy and knowing they witnessed another classic. Boxing wins on May 4th and Canelo retains the undisputed title by 10th round TKO.”

Munguia (right) tags Gabriel Rosado.

TONY SIMS (TRAINER): CANELO PTS

“It’s a monster of a Mexican fight in Vegas. Both massive names, both sell huge arena’s out on their own. Munguia has youth on his side. He’s big at the weight and is smarter in his ring generalship than he looks. He’s also heavy handed. Canelo is a master at reading your next move and pressuring you to counter off, he’s also very heavy handed. I see a really tough fight but I’m slightly leaning towards Canelo although I wouldn’t be surprised if Munguia wins a split decision.”

RICH MAROTTA (COMMENTATOR): MUNGUIA SD

“Like most followers of the sport, I wanted to see Canelo go in against Benavidez, so when the bout against Munguia was made, I more or less wrote it off as easy work for Alvarez. He is unquestionably one of the greatest Mexican champions in history, and his resume is impeccable. However, as the fight has drawn near, I have adjusted my thinking. I am not eliminating the chance for a humongous upset. It would take a perfect storm but the elements are present. As I often do in big fights, I looked for an historical parallel, and I’ve arrived at Foreman-Frazier 1. George was 37-0 with 34 KOs. Munguia is 43-0 with 34 KOs. George was a 4-1 underdog, Jaime’s about the same. Frazier was a great champ, but George was hungry, on the ascendancy, much bigger, and possessor of great power. In this case, Canelo is the great champ, but seemingly in a slow, mild decline. Jaime is the hungrier, bigger fighter with great power. So I’m going to go against the odds, out on a  limb, and pick the kid Munguia to shock the world. He won’t blow out Canelo the way George did “Smokin’ Joe” but will engage in a wild shootout with Canelo, land a million punches, on the way to a close split decision win.”

ALEX STEEDMAN (COMMENTATOR): CANELO UD

“Munguia will make this a fight, while his attitude and brio make it a fight to enjoy for the fans. And while it’s remotely possible that just maybe timing plays a part and he gets Canelo on absolutely the perfect night, the truth is, he’s simply not good enough. Canelo has slipped in recent times but not so far that someone as limited as Munguia takes his scalp. Canelo really should toy with this opponent. Canelo should’ve stopped John Ryder but couldn’t because of the Englishman’s courage and Munguia is cut from the same cloth. Canelo should win by KO but I think a long, painful decision win is more likely.“

RAUL MARQUEZ (FORMER WORLD CHAMPION/COMMENTATOR): CANELO UD

“Munguia is a young hungry lion. He is determined and will set a busy pace and I believe he will give Canelo problems early on. Canelo has the experience and has been at this level many times. He will figure out the puzzle in the second half of the fight and win a close unanimous decisions.”

BOB SANTOS (TRAINER): CANELO PTS

“I think early on Munguia is going to be a little tense and tight. Canelo’s been in big fights at the highest level, although Munguia has been a champion, it’s a different level and different atmosphere of fight of that magnitude. I think there’ll be times in the fight when he’s gonna push Canelo, but for the most part Canelo has seen everything under the sun and he’ll end up with his hand raised. I think Canelo by decision.”

WAYNE MCCULLOUGH (FORMER WORLD CHAMPION/ TRAINER): CANELO KO 5

“I think Canelo will have an easy night against the unbeaten Munguia but I expect it to be exciting…while it lasts. Munguia is tough but is also very easy to hit. He will try against Canelo throwing left hooks to the head but Canelo will catch most of them and counter with his own left hooks that will hurt Munguia. I think Canelo will get the stoppage around the fifth after he drops Munguia a few times, then knocks him out with a left hook to the head.”

RUDY HERNANDEZ (TRAINER): CANELO PTS

“Munguia will put up a good fight but experience will play a huge factor. Canelo is the more disciplined fighter and things will unfold in his favor. The only way Munguia can pull off the upset is being super disciplined from Round 1-12 without engaging in a full-on war. Overall, I expect a good fan-friendly fight. Canelo wins via decision.”

Final Tally: Canelo 18-2

Questions and/or comments can be sent to Anson at [email protected].

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