Everton v Newcastle Prediction: Premier League Match Preview

Newcastle are backed by the Opta supercomputer to pick up three points in the Premier League on Saturday, but Everton have a good recent track record on home soil. Look ahead to the game at Goodison Park with our Everton vs Newcastle prediction and preview.

Everton vs Newcastle Stats: The Key Insights

• The Opta Supercomputer rates visitors Newcastle as the favourites for this clash, winning 46.8% of match simulations to Everton’s 28.7%.
• Everton have won six of their past eight Premier League matches at Goodison Park, losing the other two.
• Newcastle have amassed 11 points this season, their most through six matches in the Premier League since the 2011-12 campaign.

Everton will be seeking more home comforts when they welcome Newcastle United to Goodison Park on Saturday having finally broken their Premier League duck last time out.

Having taken just a solitary point from their opening five top-flight matches of 2024-25, the Toffees earned a comeback 2-1 victory over Crystal Palace on home soil thanks to a Dwight McNeil brace.

It means they have taken four points from their past two games and Sean Dyche’s men are now in search of back-to-back wins for the first time since April.

And their form at Goodison Park does, in general, give the Toffees cause for optimism. Indeed, six of their previous eight home Premier League matches have yielded victories for Everton – albeit one of the two losses in that run was the dreadful late collapse in the 3-2 defeat to Bournemouth at the end of August.

Still, since the first game of that run back on 6 April, Everton have more home points than any other Premier League side with 18.

In Newcastle, they face a pretty formidable opponent, though, and a team with aspirations of returning to the Champions League next season.

The Magpies earned an impressive 1-1 draw away at champions Manchester City last weekend and have started the season well. They have three wins, two draws and just a single defeat from six Premier League matches for a return of 11 points.

That marks their best tally through the opening six games of a Premier League campaign since the 2011-12 season, when they racked up 12. Moreover, it equals Eddie Howe’s personal best start to any campaign since 2010-11, when he was in charge of Bournemouth in League One.

One trait that stands out about Newcastle right now is their tenacity and ability to fight back from adversity.

Howe’s side have won five points from losing positions already this term, a tally bettered only by Aston Villa and Man City on seven apiece.

Impressively, they have only lost twice from the previous seven occasions they have fallen behind (W2, D3), having lost 11 of the 13 games prior to that when going down 1-0.

One area Everton always look to exploit is their prowess from set-pieces, and you sense this will be important against a Newcastle side that don’t give up many chances.

Since Dyche first took charge of a Premier League game for Everton in February 2023, no side have scored a higher percentage of their goals from set-pieces, with 30 of 66 (45.5%) coming via such a route for the Toffees.

Newcastle might get the opportunity to cause harm themselves from dead-ball scenarios, though, particularly if Bruno Guimarães can impose himself on the game.

The Brazilian is the most-fouled Premier League player this season on 24, and since his first top-flight start in March 2022, he’s won more 42 more fouls than anyone else (249). Furthermore, since Opta started gathering such data in 2003-04, only Jack Grealish (3.8) and Wilfried Zaha (3.1) have won more fouls per 90 minutes than Guimaraes (3.0) among players to have played a minimum of 5,000 minutes.

One of the main narratives in this game will surround Anthony Gordon’s latest return to Goodison Park with Newcastle. The England winger has 13 goal involvements from 23 top-flight appearances for the Magpies in 2024, with seven goals and six assists. However, since swapping Everton for Newcastle in January 2023, he’s has failed to score or assist against his former employers and only has one goal in his past 15 games at Goodison.

Potentially coming up against Gordon directly on Saturday is Ashley Young. The veteran has earned the ire of Everton supporters at times this season, but the former Manchester United man has chalked up an assist in each of his past two Premier League outings, as many as he managed in the previous 117 combined.

At the age of 39, Young is now the oldest player in the competition’s history to register back-to-back assists in Premier League games.

Kieran Trippier is a fitness doubt after missing Newcastle’s midweek EFL Cup win over Wimbledon, though his muscular injury isn’t thought to be serious; this weekend will also likely come too soon for Alexander Isak.

Nick Pope was absent in the week as well due to swelling on his knee and back-up goalkeeper Martin Dúbravka went off at half-time, meaning Odysseas Vlachodimos could make his first start for the club at Goodison. Otherwise, Howe is only expected to be without long-term absentees such as Sven Botman, Jamaal Lascelles, Lewis Miley and Callum Wilson – the latter two could be back after the international break, however.

Everton have no new injury concerns, while Youssef Chermiti and Armando Broja are still at least a couple of weeks from fitness.

Everton vs Newcastle Head-to-Head

The Toffees possess a healthy home record against Newcastle, losing just three of their previous 20 Premier League encounters with the Magpies – winning 12 and drawing five.

However, on the flip side, two of those three losses have occurred in their past four home Premier League games against Newcastle, with Everton winning the other two.

Newcastle hold the edge in terms of recent top-flight encounters, winning five of their past eight meetings, as many as in their previous 24 against Everton (D6, L13).

Last season, though, Howe’s side were unable to get the better of Dyche’s men in either clash having lost 3-0 at Goodison Park in December 2023 and only mustering a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture in April this year.

Everton vs Newcastle Prediction

Newcastle are considered favourites with the Opta supercomputer for this one, coming out on top in 43.9% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations conducted.

By comparison, Everton emerged victorious 30.9% of the time, while the two sides drew in 25.2% of the outcomes.

In terms of the season as a whole, Everton finally getting the monkey off their back by beating Palace last week means the supercomputer predicts the Toffees to finish 16th on most occasions (15.9%).

Newcastle, by contrast, placed fifth most often (20.6%) and even won the title in some scenarios – albeit only 0.1% of the time.

Everton vs Newcastle Predicted Lineups

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

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