Eckert’s Examinations: DL Dean Lowry Run Defense Study

Continuing to learn about new additions to the Pittsburgh Steelers this offseason, I wanted to look at interior defensive lineman (IDL) Dean Lowry last season in run defense with the Minnesota Vikings. Today, let’s look at and provide some date context on Lowry, along with the 2023 Steelers (with at least 200 total regular season snaps) for comparative context.

Up first, run snaps and total snaps:

Right away, we get a very important quantity context for the group. The only IDL in our sights with above-average opportunities in 2023 was Larry Ogunjobi. He had 730 total snaps and 284 run snaps, ranking respectably at 13th and 19th out of the 123 qualifiers. The latter emphasizes fewer opportunities in run defense than on pass downs, which the trendline (horizontal line) also visualizes.

The rest of the group we’re focused on landed on the bottom left for a variety of reasons. Keeanu Benton was close to the NFL mean with 465 total snaps and 208 run snaps, ranking 65th in each his rookie year. He seems primed to handle a larger workload in his second season, building on some encouraging play that makes that a reasonable expectation.

Then we see veteran captain Cameron Heyward, who missed time and played through injury in 2023, with just 423 total snaps (76th) and 163 run snaps (88th). Also, a lesser split of run defense opportunities, which isn’t ideal considering his strengths in that regard. Number one, please stay healthy.

Close behind was Montravius Adams, who had 395 total snaps (85th) and 158 run snaps (T-89th). He is one of several of the returning IDL for Pittsburgh, vying for extremely valuable depth roles in 2024.

Armon Watts was another for the black and gold last season, with 260 total snaps (112th) and 122 run snaps (113th). He curiously wasn’t retained despite some encouraging contributions in 2023, and it will be interesting to see how his next chapter with New England pans out.

Last up is our main focus in Lowry. He had 230 total snaps (121st) and 115 run snaps (118th). That landed very low among the 123 qualifiers due to a season-ending pectoral injury and playing in just nine games. He was on the field much more in several of his eight-season career to date, so hopefully, he will be able to provide that for Pittsburgh in 2024 if called upon.

Next, let’s look at a very important aspect of being a quality run defender: tackling. The chart below looks at the players’ tackles per game and average tackle depth, with the latter suggesting quality play up front and attacking the line of scrimmage:

The first thing that jumps out is no focused player landed above average in each data point. This hammers the point of run defense issues up front for Pittsburgh last season.

Unfortunately, Dean Lowry landed below the mean in both. His starting with 1.6 tackles per game was tied for 85th among qualifiers. His 2.5 average tackle depth doesn’t sound alarming, but it is tied for 94th. Considering the IDL line-up at the line of scrimmage and both data points being second least among players we’re focused on, this points to a less-than-ideal recent resume in this regard.

On the bright side, we see Heyward provided the most tackles per game of the group with 3.2 (T-23rd) despite fighting through injury, but had an apparent effect on his below-the-mean 2.4 average depth of tackle (88th) that barely topped Lowry. Here’s to hoping that’s stronger in 2024.

This point is also true for Benton, who was the only other player besides Dean Lowry to land below the mean in each data point. His 2.1 tackles per game tied for 60th, while his 3.1 average tackle depth was the worst of the group and well below the mean (T-115th) among qualifiers. Ninth-worst, to be exact, and one thing on the docket for hopeful 2024 improvement.

Second among the group we have sights on with 2.6 tackles per game was Ogunjobi, tying for 40th. However, he landed just below average at a 2.3 average tackle depth (T-80th). So, he fell into a similar camp as Heyward, providing tackles but not of the run stuffing variety overall.

Watts was second on the team in those terms, with a 1.9 average tackle depth that landed just above the mean (T-51st), but came on the lowest 0.9 tackles per game among Steelers in 2023 (T-third least among qualifiers).

Encouragingly, Adams had the strongest 1.3 average tackle depth of Pittsburgh IDL by a substantial margin, tying for 15th league-wide. While that is impressive, it came on a low 1.8 tackles per game that tied for 75th. That is the rotational role that guys like Adams and Dean Lowry are battling for and what the latter would need to improve to potentially provide comfort in run defense.

This next view attempts to weigh positive and negative plays, using broken and missed tackle rates (negative plays) along with SIS positive play %, which is the rate of run plays with the player on the field that resulted in positive expected points added (EPA), with lower percentages being the best:

It’s a very telling visual, with encouraging team results for Pittsburgh in positive rates, along with several above-average broken/missed tackle percentages as well. On the contrary was Dean Lowry, the only focused player below the mean in both data points, substantially. His 12.5 broken/missed tackle rate tied for 96th, and a 43.5 positive rate (T-114th) with Minnesota last year. Not good, Bob.

The unfortunate end to otherwise encouraging results was Benton’s broken/missed tackle percentage, the only below-average mark for the Steelers in 2023:

Heyward: 5.4 broken/missed tackle rate (T-36th), 32.5 positive percentage (12th)
Watts: 6.7 broken/missed tackle rate (T-49th), 27.9 positive percentage (first)
Adams: 7.7 broken/missed tackle rate (T-57th), 33.5 positive percentage (T-19th)
Ogunjobi: 8.2 broken/missed tackle rate (T-63rd), 37.7 positive percentage (50th)
Benton: 10.3 broken/missed tackle rate (T-80th), 32.7 positive percentage (13th)

The most positive (pun intended) was Watts’ top ranking in positive percentage among qualifiers, providing the most value when on the field in run defense in 2023 and re-emphasizing some strengths he provided for Pittsburgh last season. Also encouraging were Heyward, Benton, and Adams, who all remain on the roster, landing in the top 20 as well.

To close, here is a more total view of the players in the run game:

• Points Saved per Play: The total of a player’s EPA responsibility on run plays using the Total Points system that distributes credit among all players on the field for a given play, with positive numbers being good. Totals are scaled up to map to the average points scored or allowed on a team level, with the player’s snap count determining how much to adjust. For run defense, that includes accounting for defenders in the box, blown blocks forced, broken tackles, turnovers, and turnover returns.
• Points Above Average per Play: using the same Total Points system and putting a number to their value above an average level player:

Factoring more into the equation, this visual really stacks the men up in terms of run defensive value last season. Neck and neck were Adams (18th, 17th) and Watts (T-20th, 18th) at the top of the focused group. It is important to reiterate their lower volume as role players, with the retained Adams encouragingly providing more of that in 2023.

Veterans Heyward and Ogunjobi also landed above the mean here, particularly the former (T-22nd, T-25th) compared to Ogunjobi tying for 40th and 46th. Then, slightly below the mean was Benton, his rookie year, tying for 61st in both data points. Many are optimistic about him making a second-year leap, including me, and personally looking for it in run defense, considering the pass rush juice he displayed more regularly in 2023.

Unfortunately, though Dean Lowry is looking to carve out a role, we see that 2023 was not an ideal offering in run defense as the worst player in our sights. He seemingly played better leading up to his one season with the Vikings last year but will have to show vast improvements in hopes of separating himself as a viable depth piece in 2024.

Other candidates that are returning for Pittsburgh in 2024 include Isaiahh Loudermilk and DeMarvin Leal, who had even fewer snap opportunities than the six focused players and would have landed on the bottom left as well. We have seen how poor things can look, particularly when Heyward is unavailable (knocks-on-wood), and I can’t wait to see how the IDL rotation shakes out for Pittsburgh this season.

Here’s hoping the position group and entire unit can come together to produce a stronger and more consistent effort in 2024’s run defense.