Early Season Numbers Hint at a Troubling Trend for Oilers

The Edmonton Oilers have stumbled out of the gate in the 2024-25 season, posting a concerning 0-3 record. TSN columnist Travis Yost has taken a closer look at the numbers behind this slow start, revealing some alarming trends.

Through the first three games, Edmonton has been outscored by 12 goals, but Yost points out that a significant part of this issue could be attributed to poor puck luck. The Oilers’ shooting percentage is an abysmal 3.2%, the lowest in the NHL, while their goaltenders are stopping only 78.3% of shots, ranking them 31st in the league. These extreme splits highlight how quickly the team’s fortunes have turned, despite not being territorially outplayed.

It’s not just as simple as Connor McDavid not having or goal, or Zach Hyman not getting on the board. This isn’t just about a huge downtick in the success of the penalty kill or not getting that one key save at the right time. There is a combination of factors leading to the huge difference between goals for and goals against.

One of the key areas of concern Yost highlights is the disparity between Edmonton’s top defensive pairing of Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard and the second pairing of Darnell Nurse and Travis Dermott. In short, the two best defensemen are getting the best forwards. The other blueliners are working with lesser offensive talent.

Ekholm and Bouchard, often playing with the Oilers’ top forwards, have been strong, benefiting from the offensive pressure led by McDavid. However, Nurse and Dermott, tasked with tougher defensive minutes alongside middle-six forwards, have struggled mightily. This second pairing has been outscored and out-chanced at an alarming rate.

In other words, while it’s easy to jump all over Nurse and his d-partner, remembering that they aren’t just trying to improve their play, but doing it with the forwards who don’t produce as effectively explains a lot.

Early Numbers Suggest Good News and Bad News for the Oilers

The good news is that there’s reason to believe the Oilers’ shooting and goaltending numbers will regress to the mean. This horrific shooting percentage won’t stay this low forever. The team is too talented and too skilled to finish last in the NHL when it comes to offense.

That said, Yost suggests that the underperformance of the second defensive pairing could be a more long-term issue that needs addressing. If the team can’t find a partner for Nurse (or Nurse gets better) and that duo can’t play with any forwards, that poses an issue.

For now, the best the Oilers can do is wait for the offense to kick, and for the coaching staff to find solutions to balance the defensive workload. It might mean giving Bouchard and Ekholm a shift or two with other forward lines.

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