Eagles vs. Saints Predictions | Opta Analyst

Sirianni has come under fire for the blown lead, as well as the time management on the previous drive, as the Eagles fell to 1-1.

Most sportsbooks didn’t seem convinced of the Saints’ early offensive explosion, with the Eagles opening the week as 3.0-point favorites. The line has since flipped, however, to favor the Saints by 2.5 points.

Our prediction model sees the home team as the best bet, giving New Orleans a 58.6% chance of starting 3-0 for the first time since 2013 and a 67.5% chance of making the playoffs.

This matchup is also tied for the third-most entertaining game on the NFL Week 3 slate with a SmartRating of 66. The model’s excitement scale translates to the following general sub-ranges: 0-39 (dull), 40-64 (OK), 65-84 (good), 85-100 (great).

Saints’ Key: Lean on Kamara

The Saints offense has been able to exert its will over the first two games of the season, with excellent numbers across the board. And Carr’s league-leading pass efficiency has come from a variety of sources.

Standout WR Chris Olave has yet to really even get going, but the former Raiders QB has been able to find Rashid Shaheed down the field. Shaheed caught touchdown passes of 59 and 70 yards in the Saints’ first two games, providing a quick-strike threat.

It’s early, but it’s hard to find any weaknesses in the offense through two weeks. Philly’s quick strikes and big leads have allowed the offense to coast in the second half, when 75.9% of the play calls have been runs.

Points on Drives of Three or Fewer Plays

• 28 – New Orleans Saints         
• 14 – Minnesota Vikings    
• 13 – Indianapolis Colts    

But New Orleans will be forced to play a four-quarter game soon, and if that game comes this Sunday, the Saints will need to feature Kamara to keep moving the ball. Kamara’s 145.0 scrimmage yards per game and five touchdowns both lead the NFL, and he remains one of the league’s most dangerous offensive weapons in his eighth season.

His 1.94 yards per carry after contact is above the league average for running backs despite facing a loaded box on 50.0% of his carries. Kamara also opens up the passing game, with Carr averaging 18.3 air yards per attempt on play-action throws.

If Sunday’s game remains tight into the second half, the Saints will be well-served to stay balanced and let Carr throw when he catches the defense off guard.

Saints Player Projections (as of Friday)

• Derek Carr: 21.5 completions on 31.6 attempts for 230.6 yards with 1.2 TDs and 0.3 INTs
• Alvin Kamara: 15.2 rushes for 62.6 yards with 0.8 TDs; 3.9 receptions for 26.6 yards
• Rashid Shaheed: 4.3 receptions for 63.2 yards with 0.3 touchdowns
• Chris Olave: 5.0 receptions for 60.2 yards with 0.3 touchdowns
• Foster Moreau: 2.2 receptions for 23.3 yards with 0.1 touchdowns

Eagles’ Key: Win in the Red Zone

The injury bug could play a factor for the underdog Eagles, with two key players having their statuses unknown. A.J. Brown, Jalen Hurts’ top target, missed Monday’s loss to the Falcons due to a hamstring injury and has been unable to practice this week.

Starting safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson, meanwhile, suffered a foot injury in practice and was unable to participate Thursday, leaving his status in doubt.

While Brown is the bigger name of the two players, the Eagles can ill afford to be missing a starting defensive back from a unit with mixed results early in the season.

Philadelphia allows 7.1 yards per pass play and has a pressure rate of 30.0%, both ranking 26th in the NFL. They also rank dead last in the league in defensive EVE. The Eagles will need to defend the pass better entering this matchup against Carr and the red-hot Saints.

Philly’s offense has been the better unit of the two so far but has lacked explosiveness, especially with Brown injured.

The offense has been characterized by extended drives and ball control, needing to string together several successful plays to get into the end zone.

Average Length of Scoring Drives (Plays)

1. 10.71 – Cleveland Browns 
2. 10.70 – Philadelphia Eagles      
3. 10.63 – New England Patriots 
4. 9.90 – Washington Commanders  
5. 9.60 – New York Giants    

With the Eagles unlikely to generate many chunk plays (especially without Brown), they will need to execute in the red zone.

The Eagles rank seventh in overall offensive success rate in the red zone and are above the league average in rushing and passing success rate. But the Saints have excelled in locking teams down near the goal line.

Opp. Red Zone TD Efficiency

• 0.0% – Los Angeles Chargers 
• 20.0% – New Orleans Saints
• 20.0% – Pittsburgh Steelers  
• 25.0% – New York Giants       
• 28.6% – Atlanta Falcons  
• 28.6% – Minnesota Vikings  
• 28.6% – Philadelphia Eagles 

Saquon Barkley’s red-zone drop on Monday night opened the door for the Falcons’ comeback, and the Eagles will need to execute better to avoid a 1-2 start.

Eagles Player Projections (as of Friday)

• Jalen Hurts: 21.8 completions on 32.9 attempts for 239.0 yards with 1.3 TDs and 0.5 INTs; 10.6 rushes for 44.8 yards with 0.6 TDs
• Saquon Barkley: 18.0 rushes for 74.3 yards with 0.6 TDs; 4.1 receptions for 26.6 yards
• DeVonta Smith: 6.2 receptions for 94.1 yards with 0.5 touchdowns
• Britain Covey: 2.3 receptions for 27.0 yards with 0.1 touchdowns
• Dallas Goedert: 4.4 receptions for 41.5 yards with 0.2 touchdowns

Things can change dramatically in the NFL in just a week. The Saints enter this game riding high after two blowout wins, and the Eagles are licking their wounds after a heartbreaking loss.

If Philadelphia can score touchdowns instead of field goals against a stingy New Orleans defense, last week’s shortcomings could become a distant memory.

The Saints, on the other hand, are hoping a balanced offense called by Klint Kubiak continues to dominate and they continue their perfect start.

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