Daniil Medvedev’s knuckleball in an era of fastballs | ATP Tour

Beyond The Numbers

Backhand abundance: Medvedev’s knuckleball in an era of fastballs

Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analyses Medvedev’s backhand

September 24, 2024

Nobody loves their backhand more than Daniil Medvedev.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers groundstroke analysis from the 2024 season identifies Medvedev as the only player in the Top 20 who hits more backhands than forehands. The data set is from ATP matches on Hawk-Eye courts. Medvedev is the king of the “backhand cage” strategy, where he locks opponents into a sharp-angle backhand ad-court exchange, daring them to take on more risk by attempting to escape his clutches down the line.

It’s a damned if you do, and damned if you don’t predicament for Medvedev’s opponents. They have little chance of outlasting him backhand to backhand, while at the same time hitting down the line to escape the backhand lockdown pattern also comes with elevated risk.

The six players in the Top 20 of the PIF ATP Rankings who hit the highest percentage of backhands are:

1) Daniil Medvedev 53.1%
2) Alex de Minaur 49.4%
3) Taylor Fritz 49%
4) Sebastian Korda 48.9%
5) Novak Djokovic 48.9%
6) Frances Tiafoe 48.2%

What is fascinating is that Medvedev is also the leader in the Top 20 putting the most backhands in the court. He was the only player in the data set who put north of 90 per cent of his backhands in play.

The six players who put at least 87 per cent of their backhands in the court are:

1) Daniil Medvedev 90.2%
2) Novak Djokovic 88.3%
3) Jack Draper 88%
4) Casper Ruud 87.8%
5) Alexander Zverev 87.3%
6) Alex de Minaur 87%

Medvedev hit 3,253 backhands in the data set. He only missed 319. The ATP Tour average for backhand speed is 68 mph. Medvedev’s backhand is precisely that. He is not over-cooking this shot by trying to play through opponents, but he is also not just pushing it in either.

Medvedev rarely uses slice off his backhand wing. The Tour average is 21 per cent backhand slice in 2024. Medvedev is only at nine percent. He would much rather contort his body into an unorthodox position to shovel the ball back flat and deep, almost always giving his opponents nothing to work with.

Medvedev hits his backhand flatter than most. The Tour average for backhand topspin is 1,775 rpm. Medvedev averages just 1,496 rpm. Flatter equals lower. The Tour average for backhand height over the net is 0.73 metres. Medvedev is at 0.69 metres. Opponents are used to a higher ball with topspin. All Medvedev cares about is making his opponents uncomfortable.

Medvedev’s backhand is simply a different animal.

There is absolutely nothing about Medvedev’s backhand that opponents look forward to. He puts a ridiculous amount of backhands in play. It comes at you almost dead flat at the bottom of your strike zone. Opponents don’t know what to do with it except shovel it back cross court. That’s the first mistake. Trying to attack Medvedev’s backhand encourages overhitting. That’s the second mistake.

Medvedev is a throwback in an age of more forehands and more raw groundstroke power. His backhand confuses and disorientates. It’s a knuckleball in an era of fastballs. As the Tour migrates back to outdoor hard courts in Asia and indoor hard courts in Europe to finish the year, Medvedev will be right at home on his favourite surface doing Medvedev things that completely confound opponents.