Commanders vs. Ravens Prediction | Opta Analyst

The play displayed Jackson’s poise, running ability, vision, arm talent and unwavering confidence all in the span of 12 seconds.

Jackson played one of the best games of his career, helping the Ravens rally to a 41-38 win in Cincinnati. He threw for 348 yards and four touchdowns, and added 55 yards on the ground.

Best Team Record When Player Has 275+ Pass Yards (Since 2018)

1. 9-1 (.900) – Lamar Jackson, Ravens
2. 49-7 (.875) – Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs                   
3. 7-2 (.778) – C.J. Stroud, Texans                 
4. 22-7 (.759) – Josh Allen, Bills                  
5. 34-11 (.756) – Tom Brady, Patriots/Buccaneers

With Baltimore riding a three-game winning streak and Jackson’s numbers as prolific as ever, it’s fair to ask: Is the two-time MVP getting even better?

As scary as it may sound to his fellow AFC contenders, Jackson might be amid his best season yet thanks to an improved supporting cast.

THE KING HENRY DIFFERENCE

Jackson’s dazzling performances are nothing new, with the former first-round pick putting up numbers that put him right back in the MVP conversation. His 107.3 passer rating this year is better than last season (102.7) and just below the standard he set in 2019 (113.3).

Often overlooked because of some memorable playoff disappointments, Jackson boasts one of the best regular-season records for a starting quarterback in the Super Bowl era.

While some of Jackson’s success is business as usual, the headline-grabbing acquisition of Derrick Henry last offseason has lived up to the hype. Henry and Jackson sharing the backfield has left opposing defenses guessing, and both have seen their numbers spike as a result.

Entering NFL Week 6, Henry led the league in rushing with 572 yards while averaging a career-high 6.0 yards per carry. Henry and Jackson have combined for 935 rushing yards, almost 300 more than the closest teammate duo through five weeks (Jordan Mason and Brock Purdy, 644).

Perhaps less expected has been Jackson’s improved passing numbers with Henry on the field, with opposing defenses forced to defend shallow and deep, sideline-to-sideline.

With opposing defenses stretched to their limit, Jackson has shown noticeable improvement in two key areas: red-zone production and avoiding sacks.

Dual-threat quarterbacks generally take more sacks due to their willingness to keep plays alive even in the face of pressure. Jackson’s elite athleticism has always allowed him to escape even the most precarious of situations, and his decision-making in the pocket has consistently improved.

In 2021, Jackson was sacked 38 times in 12 games, or 3.2 per contest. He showed improvement over the following two seasons, taking 2.3 sacks per game from 2022-23.

So far this year, Jackson has been virtually untouchable – taking just five sacks in five games – despite an average release time of 2.93 seconds, the third longest among qualified quarterbacks.

Teams with dual-threat quarterbacks typically tolerate some negative plays in exchange for big-play explosiveness. Jackson has seemingly distilled his improvisational magic while filtering out the impurities.

Jackson’s versatility is even harder to defend in the red zone, where one false step can result in six points added to the scoreboard.

During the first six seasons of his career, Jackson accounted for 88 passing touchdowns, 22 rushing touchdowns and nine turnovers (five INTs, four fumbles lost).

Jackson has yet to turn the ball over in the red zone this season and has accounted for 10 touchdowns (eight passing, two rushing). His 119.4 passer rating in the red zone is the best of his career.

It is no wonder, then, that the Ravens lead the league with a red zone success rate of 51.2% – well above the NFL average of 37.8%.

TWO OF A KIND?

While Jackson’s last game was memorable because of his dazzling performance, his next game is in the spotlight because of the opposing quarterback in this matchup.

Jackson’s pocket passing and devastating running ability have led many to label him as unique, but when the Ravens take the field on Sunday against the Washington Commanders, they will encounter the closest thing yet to a Unicorn 2.0.

Rookie Jayden Daniels has made quarterbacking look easy through the first month-plus of the season, guiding the Commanders to a 4-1 start atop the NFC East. He threw for 238 yards with one touchdown and one interception, and rushed for 82 yards on 11 carries in last week’s 34-13 win over the Cleveland Browns.

Washington’s stark turnaround has been nearly instantaneous, with Daniels elevating last year’s 25th-ranked offense (19.4 points per game) to a league-leading 31.0 points per game.

Points Per Game Leaders (2024)

• 31.0 – Washington Commanders  
• 29.4 – Baltimore Ravens       
• 28.4 – Buffalo Bills        
• 28.0 – Cincinnati Bengals       
• 28.0 – New Orleans Saints     

Daniels, the No. 2 overall pick in this year’s draft, won the Heisman Trophy last season for LSU and produced the most electrifying highlight reel in recent memory, reminiscent of Jackson’s Heisman season at Louisville.

Daniels leads the NFL by completing 77.1% of his passes and ranks fifth with a 106.3 passer rating. Jackson sits fourth at 107.3.

Just like the Ravens, the Commanders have been a dominant running team, with Daniels’ speed combining with a resurgent Brian Robinson Jr. for the league’s second-best rushing attack at 178.4 yards per game. They trail only Baltimore’s 211.2 yards per game.

The similarity between the Baltimore and Washington offenses – and specifically their quarterbacks – is uncanny as they meet for the first time.

While the Ravens and Commanders may offer mirror-image offenses, there is a wide chasm between the defenses.

Most sportsbooks list Baltimore as a 6.5- or 7-point favorite, and our prediction model also has the home team as the best bets in Maryland, giving the Ravens a 71.8% chance of extending their winning streak to four games.

With two great rushing attacks taking the field, Sunday’s game could be decided by run defense, an area that heavily favors the Ravens.

Baltimore’s run defense is the stingiest in the league, allowing 60.4 rushing yards per game. The Ravens defense has allowed just three runs of 10 or more yards – no other team has allowed fewer than seven.

Washington, on the other hand, fields one of the league’s most porous run defenses. The underdog Commanders have given up a league-high 24 rushes of 10 or more yards.

And it’s not just the big plays that have killed them. The Commanders have allowed 4+ yards on 52.8% of their designed runs, the second-highest rate in the league.

It is hard to envision a scenario in which Jackson, Henry and the Ravens don’t run wild on the Commanders, and Jackson could continue making his case for a third MVP award. Jackson is the top-ranked QB in our player projections for Week 6, as our model has him throwing for 190.9 yards with 1.1 touchdowns and rushing for 84.8 yards and 0.6 TDs.

Perhaps Daniels and Washington could be the first team to gash Baltimore on the ground in return. If not, Daniels will have to show just how polished of a passer he is as a rookie to lead his team to 5-1.

Daniels is the fourth-ranked QB in our projections this week, with 252.3 projected passing yards with 1.1 touchdowns and 58.1 rushing yards and 0.3 TDs.

Either way, the present and future of the quarterback position will be on display in Baltimore with two of the most entertaining players in the league taking the spotlight.

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