Colts vs Vikings: Joe Flacco’s Promotion Enhances Indy’s Chances

The time appears right for the Colts to pivot to the Super Bowl champion over Anthony Richardson, and they could be catching the Vikings at an opportune time.

Anthony Richardson said he needed a break, and the Indianapolis Colts are giving him one. 

The Colts are putting their experiment with the 2023 No. 4 overall pick on pause as they enter an important stretch of November games that begins with this week’s clash with Sam Darnold, Justin Jefferson and the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis.

Indianapolis will be heading onto the national stage of NBC’s Sunday Night Football with a quarterback who won’t be playing under the bright lights for the first time following its decision to play 39-year-old Joe Flacco over the struggling Richardson, subbing out the NFL’s second-youngest signal-caller for the second-oldest QB.

It’s a move that’s sparked plenty of debate. After all, why would a team that very likely isn’t championship material (as of Saturday, the Colts have a 1.9% chance of reaching the Super Bowl, according to our projection model) not take advantage of the opportunity to provide its intended long-term answer at quarterback the game experience that’s so evidently been lacking?

The answer is really pretty simple. The Colts want to make the playoffs, something they haven’t done in three straight years and have achieved just once in five seasons since Andrew Luck’s abrupt retirement in 2019. They’ve got a reasonable chance of getting there this season, and it’s hard to argue those chances aren’t better with Flacco’s battle-tested and less risk-averse style leading the offense.

Indianapolis enters Sunday’s matchup a half-game out of a wild-card spot in an AFC group that’s displayed less overall depth than its NFC counterparts, and our model gives the 4-4 Colts better odds of reaching the postseason than one of the teams ahead of them. It has Indy with a 51.1% playoff probability while placing the 5-3 Denver Broncos at 33.2%.

AFC PLAYOFF PROJECTIONS (AS OF SATURDAY)

Though Richardson didn’t do himself many favors by asking out on a 3rd-and-goal play because he was admittedly tired during last week’s 23-20 loss to the division-rival Houston Texans, it’s his on-field performance that warrants more criticism and prompted head coach Shane Steichen to make the switch.

Last among qualified quarterbacks in passer rating (57.2), Richardson’s current 44.4% completion rate would be the lowest of any player with at least 125 attempts in a season since 2013 (Josh Freeman, 42.9%) if he never throws another pass in 2024.

The advanced metrics are equally unkind. Among the 41 quarterbacks with at least 50 pass attempts this season, Richardson ranks at the bottom in pickable pass percentage (9.45), catchable ball percentage (59.8) and expected completion percentage (61.9).

Steichen may have still been willing to ride it out with the uber-talented 22-year-old QB had Richardson’s game showed some signs of progression. It hasn’t, however, as the second-year pro’s accuracy issues have been even more pronounced in back-to-back abysmal outings over the past two weeks.

Richardson has completed a troubling 35.7% of his throws during that stretch with less than half (48.1%) of his adjusted attempts deemed catchable. That completion rate is the fourth lowest by any quarterback with 50 or more attempts over a two-game span this century.

LOWEST COMPLETION% IN A TWO-GAME SPAN SINCE 2000 (MIN. 50 ATT.)

• .340 – Philip Rivers, Los Angeles Chargers (2006)
• .340 – Kirk Kittner, Atlanta Falcons (2003)
• .352 – JaMarcus Russell, Las Vegas Raiders (2009)
• .357 – Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts (2024)
• .360 – Aaron Brooks, New Orleans Saints (2002)

There’s reason to believe Flacco could bring a spark similar to the one he gave Cleveland in 2023, when the veteran guided the Browns to four straight December wins to send them into the AFC playoffs. Or like the one Gardner Minshew generated after taking over for an injured Richardson last October when he kept the Colts in the postseason hunt until the final week.

Though obviously a stop-gap solution at this stage of his career, Flacco has shown he can still get it done at his advanced age. The 17-year signal caller has won five of his seven regular-season starts over the past calendar year while recording the highest touchdown pass percentage of any quarterback since the start of the 2023 campaign.

Flacco has given the Colts a boost when called upon previously this season. He stepped in for an injured Richardson in the first quarter of Indy’s NFL Week 4 game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, helping to engineer a 27-24 victory over a fellow AFC playoff contender with a two-touchdown, turnover free display.

The following week, the 2023 NFL Comeback Player of the Year lit up a porous Jacksonville Jaguars defense for 359 yards and three touchdowns in the first of two consecutive starts that preceded Richardson’s return from an oblique issue.

The offense has indisputably been more formidable during the period that Flacco either started or took the majority of the snaps from Weeks 4-6. They scored on 44.1% of their drives with a 26.5% touchdown rate over that stretch, compared to a 29.8% scoring rate with 19.3% of their possessions resulting in touchdowns in all other games.

The passing game has been far more robust under Flacco’s direction, and the Colts have been markedly better in two critical areas – third-down conversion percentage and turnovers – with the grizzled vet at the controls. 

The Colts will still be losing something with the change in quarterbacks, as Richardson is a far superior runner than the cement-footed Flacco and the offense has shown more explosive potential with the youngster under center. Just 3.7% of Flacco’s pass attempts this season have resulted in completions of 25-plus yards, while Richardson has delivered such plays at a rate more than double that number at 8.3%.

Steichen would likely gladly take that tradeoff, however, if it results in an offense that takes better care of the ball, moves the chains at far greater frequency and ultimately produces more points. The Colts have converted third downs at a woeful 23.1% rate in the two games since Richardson returned from his injury, and he’s been responsible for three turnovers (two interceptions, one fumble) in the red zone during his challenging sophomore season.

And while it’s true that the Colts are averaging nearly 40 more rushing yards in games that Richardson has played the entire way, that number could be a bit skewed considering Indianapolis was without standout running back Jonathan Taylor for both of Flacco’s prior starts.

Flacco also theoretically presents a more difficult matchup for Minnesota due to his ability to recognize and beat the blitz, a tactic the NFC North contenders have employed at the second-highest frequency in the NFL during an encouraging 5-2 start that’s been dampened somewhat with back-to-back losses to the juggernaut Detroit Lions and a Los Angeles Rams team that’s starting to get healthy again.

Coordinator Brian Flores has sent extra rushers nearly 45% of the time so far this season, and that attacking philosophy has resulted in Minnesota leading the league with 12 interceptions and ranking third in sacks per game (3.4). That game plan could have been a huge advantage against Richardson, who’s completed just 7 of 29 attempts with two interceptions and a woeful 30.1 passer rating when blitzed this season.

That strategy shouldn’t be as effective against Flacco, among the league’s better performers against the blitz during his five-start stint with the Browns last season. He registered an above-average 112.7 passer rating in such situations in 2023, while throwing for six touchdowns in 45 attempts and completing 64.4% of his throws.

Minnesota, which our model gives a 67.8% probability of winning this week, still could pose some major problems for the Indianapolis offense if able to disrupt Flacco on a consistent basis. The Vikings weren’t able to do that a week ago, as they mustered a meager 10.8% pressure rate against the Rams’ Matthew Stafford, another aging quarterback whose limited mobility is offset by his experience and powerful arm.

With Stafford largely unencumbered throughout the night, the outcome was predictably bad for Minnesota, which wound up on the wrong end of a 30-20 decision as the Rams’ accomplished veteran racked up 279 yards and four touchdowns on 25-of-34 passing.

Flacco had a similarly clean pocket to work with in the Jacksonville game, as the Jaguars applied pressure on just 32.0% of his drop backs. He couldn’t duplicate that outstanding effort the following Sunday, however, as his lackluster 57.9 completion percentage, 66.7 well-thrown percentage and 4.97 yards per attempt against Tennessee in Week 6 could at least in part be attributed to the 48.7% pressure rate the Titans generated that day.

Though definitely not the turnover risk Richardson has been, Flacco did record a 7.89 pickable-pass percentage when under pressure in 2023, the fifth highest among quarterbacks with 40 or more attempts under duress.

Flacco isn’t the perfect solution, but the data says he’s the best one at the moment for a Colts team whose clock is ticking at a critical point of the NFL season.

And giving Richardson a refresher may not at all be a bad thing, as his recent play suggests he may need a mental break even more than a physical one.

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