College Football Predictions for Week 9

With the help of our trusty supercomputer, we’re providing college football predictions for every game each week.

As always, our projection model is spitting out its data-backed predictions for all college football games throughout the 2024 season.

In a relatively wide-open landscape this year, traditional SEC powerhouses Alabama and Georgia are among the favorites to win the national championship. Tennessee and Ole Miss are also contenders, with SEC newcomer Texas showing it’s also a legitimate threat.

Big Ten teams Ohio State, Oregon and Penn State all expect to be vying for a place in the newly expanded 12-team College Football Playoff. Utah and Kansas State were the early favorites in an unpredictable Big 12, while Boise State, Notre Dame, and SMU hope to make the playoff from outside the power conferences.

Now, all of that is a little far in the future to be given much consideration yet, but our TRACR-powered supercomputer is continuing to make predictions for every game this season.

TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster) is a net efficiency stat that measures how a team should play against a standardized level of competition. The model is based on an EPA (expected points added) calculation weighed by opponent strength.

A team with a TRACR of 0.0 is considered an average team in the FBS. So if a team with a 7.5 TRACR faced a team with a minus-3.0 TRACR, the better team would be a 10.5-point favorite, according to the model.

Each week throughout the NCAA football season, our model will have something to say about every game. No matter if it’s a headliner like Ohio State-Michigan in another chapter of a legendary rivalry, or a game we may all be a bit less excited about, it unsentimentally beeps its way through its college football picks, boldly dropping predictions for each.

We kick off our Week 9 predictions with three Friday night contests and several more key matchups across the Saturday slate. There’s Indiana-Washington in a Big Ten showdown, and Notre Dame at Navy, Illinois at Oregon and LSU at Texas A&M among the others with potential College Football Playoff implications.

For those matchups and everything between, we’ve taken plenty of data, pumped it through our predictive model and come up with its Week 9 predictions. 

Note: The ranking below represents where the team sits in TRACR, while the percentage indicates win probability for the given matchup (as of Thursday).

Friday Night

No. 20 Boise State 79.3% at No. 51 UNLV 20.7%

Ashton Jeanty rushed for 217 yards in the most recent game versus Hawaii, his third game this season with 200+ rush yards (only FBS player with multiple). Only three Mountain West players have had more such performances in a season – San Diego State’s Rashaad Penny (six in 2017) and Donnel Pumphrey (four in 2016) and Wyoming’s Brian Hill (four in 2015).

No. 25 Louisville 73.7% at No. 52 Boston College 26.3%

Louisville is led by its passing game, as it ranks 17th in the nation in passing TRACR. Boston College, meanwhile ranks 56th in defensive TRACR against the pass.

Saturday’s Schedule

No. 35 Nebraska 7.4% at No. 3 Ohio State 92.6%

Ohio State has won seven straight games against Nebraska dating back to 2012, averaging 49 points per game over this span. The Cornhuskers are 1-7 overall against the Buckeyes since joining the Big Ten in 2011, their second-worst win percentage against any conference opponent over this span (Wisconsin, .083).

No. 36 Oklahoma 9.4% at No. 5 Ole Miss 90.6%

Ole Miss was idle after a 29-26 overtime loss in Baton Rouge; both Rebels’ losses this season have come by a field goal. The Rebels rank third in the FBS with 7.68 yards per play (Miami FL, 8.05; Boise State, 7.79) and third in the FBS defensively, allowing 4.06 yards per play (Texas, 3.74; Tennessee, 4.03).

No. 26 Missouri 12.2% at No. 6 Alabama 87.8%

Alabama has won each of the last five matchups with Missouri dating back to 1978. The Crimson Tide pulled out a 38-19 win in Columbia in the last meeting in 2020 and won the only
prior meeting in Tuscaloosa 39-10 back in 2018.

No. 30 Washington 10.9% at No. 7 Indiana 89.1%

Indiana is 7-0 for the second time in school history. The other was 1967, when they started 8-0, finished the regular season at 9-1 and represented the Big Ten in the Rose Bowl (lost 14-3 to USC).

No. 16 LSU 36.6% at No. 10 Texas A&M 63.4%

Texas A&M has won three straight home games against LSU, its second-longest active home win streak against an SEC opponent (South Carolina, five). LSU hasn’t lost four straight road games to an SEC team since a four-gamer at Auburn that ran through 2006.

No. 57 Florida State 8.8% at No. 13 Miami (FL) 91.2%

Miami leads the all-time series with Florida State 35-33, but the Seminoles have won three straight with two of those having been decided by one score. Florida State has won seven of its last nine trips to Miami dating back to 2006, including a 45-3 rout in 2022.

No. 40 Illinois 17.5% at No. 14 Oregon 82.5%

Oregon blanked Purdue 35-0 for its first shutout win since 2012 (49-0 vs. Arizona). The Ducks are 7-0 for the first time since an 8-0 start in 2013 and are ranked No. 1 for the first time since November 2012.

No. 42 Kansas 22.0% at No. 17 Kansas State 78.0%

Kansas State has won 15 straight games over Kansas, the longest win streak by either team in series history (121 all-time meetings). It is also tied for the second-longest win streak in any Big 12 conference matchup (Oklahoma, 18 straight wins vs. Kansas 2000-22).

No. 41 Georgia Tech 26.4% at No. 18 Virginia Tech 73.6%

No. 11 Penn State 80.5% at No. 28 Wisconsin 19.5%

Penn State has won five straight games against Wisconsin, the longest winning streak by any team in this series. Four of those victories came by seven points or fewer.

No. 22 Auburn 63.0% at No. 29 Kentucky 37.0%

No. 8 Notre Dame 87.3% vs. No. 34 Navy 12.7% (at MetLife Stadium)

Since 1980, Notre Dame is 39-4 head-to-head against Navy, its best win percentage against any single opponent over this span (min. 10 games). Three of Navy’s four wins against the Irish over this span have been decided by two or fewer points.

No. 1 Texas 95.3% at No. 47 Vanderbilt 4.7%

Texas fell to Georgia 30-15 last time out – the Longhorns had not allowed more than 13 points in a game this season. The Longhorns lead FBS in opponent points per game (9.7) and opponent yards per game (237.3); each of the last four teams to do so won the national championship (Michigan – 2023; Alabama – 2011, 2012, 2017).

No. 21 Arkansas 86.5% at No. 60 Mississippi State 13.5%

No. 24 SMU 84.7% at No. 67 Duke 15.3%

SMU beat Stanford 40-10 in its last game, its third game scoring at least 40 points against a power conference opponent this season. Only Clemson and Indiana (four each) have more in the FBS. Prior to this season, the Mustangs had just four 40-point games against power conference schools since the beginning of the century.

Stats and facts provided by Stats Perform’s data insights team. Be sure to check out our MLB, NBA, NFL and college football coverage. And follow us on X and Instagram for more!