College Football Predictions for Week 7

With the help of our trusty supercomputer, we’re providing college football predictions for every game each week.

As always, our projection model is spitting out its data-backed predictions for all college football games throughout the 2024 season.

In a relatively wide-open landscape this year, traditional SEC powerhouses Alabama and Georgia are among the favorites to win the national championship. Tennessee and Ole Miss are also contenders, with SEC newcomer Texas showing it’s also a legitimate threat.

Big Ten teams Ohio State, Oregon and Penn State all expect to be vying for a place in the newly expanded 12-team College Football Playoff. Utah and Kansas State are the early favorites in an unpredictable Big 12, while Boise State, Notre Dame, and SMU hope to make the playoff from outside the power conferences.

Now, all of that is a little far in the future to be given much consideration yet, but our TRACR-powered supercomputer is continuing to make predictions for every game this season.

TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster) is a net efficiency stat that measures how a team should play against a standardized level of competition. The model is based on an EPA (expected points added) calculation weighed by opponent strength.

A team with a TRACR of 0.0 is considered an average team in the FBS. So if a team with a 7.5 TRACR faced a team with a minus-3.0 TRACR, the better team would be a 10.5-point favorite, according to the model.

Each week throughout the NCAA football season, our model will have something to say about every game. No matter if it’s a headliner like Ohio State-Michigan in another chapter of a legendary rivalry, or a game we may all be a bit less excited about, it unsentimentally beeps its way through its college football picks, boldly dropping predictions for each.

We kick off our Week 7 predictions with multiple big games including South Carolina at Alabama in the early time slot on Saturday. More key matchups will follow, like Ohio State at Oregon and this year’s Red River Rivalry game with Texas visiting Oklahoma. 4-1 Boise State will travel to Hawaii for a Saturday night matchup to conclude the week. 

For those matchups and everything between, we’ve taken plenty of data, pumped it through our predictive model and come up with its Week 7 predictions. 

Note: The ranking below represents where the team sits in TRACR, while the percentage indicates win probability for the given matchup.

Saturday‘s Schedule

No. 38 South Carolina 11.5% at No. 5 Alabama 88.5%

The Crimson Tide have not lost back-to-back games against unranked SEC opponents since 2004 (losses to Arkansas and South Carolina). South Carolina has won two of its last three games against AP top-10 teams (Tennessee and Clemson, both in 2022).

No. 8 Clemson 95.6% at No. 94 Wake Forest 4.4%

Clemson has won 15 straight against Wake Forest, with the Demon Deacons’ last win in the
series coming in 2008. The Tigers’ 15-game win streak matches the longest by either team (Clemson, 1977-91) and is the second-longest active streak by an ACC team over a conference opponent (Florida State, 22 vs. Duke).

No. 15 Washington 84.1% at No. 61 Iowa 15.9%

No. 24 Georgia Tech 67.2% at No. 47 North Carolina 32.8%

No. 117 UAB 1.9% at No. 11 Army West Point 98.1%

Army has outscored its opponents 194-49 during a 5-0 start. The team’s passing game is elite, ranking second in offensive TRACR through the air behind only Penn State. The AP Top 25 might not believe in Army yet, but TRACR does at No. 11.

No. 2 Texas 96.4% at No. 48 Oklahoma 3.6%

Texas, No. 1 in the AP Top 25, and Oklahoma will meet for the 120th time and the first as members of the SEC, with the Longhorns holding a 63-51-5 edge in the all-time series. The Sooners have won five of the last six meetings dating back to the 2018 Big 12 Championship.

No. 6 Penn State 80.0% at No. 23 USC 20.0%

Penn State is 5-0 for the fourth straight season following a 27-11 win over UCLA. The Nittany Lions managed just 85 rushing yards – their fewest in a win since September 2021 (84 vs. Auburn) – after averaging 251.0 yards per game in their first four this season.

No. 87 Stanford 7.3% at No. 16 Notre Dame 92.7%

Notre Dame leads Stanford 22-14 in the all-time series, including four wins in the last five meetings dating back to 2018. The Cardinal won 16-14 in their last trip to South Bend in 2022 and have won three of six meetings there since 2010.

No. 58 California 33.5% at No. 30 Pittsburgh 66.5%

Pittsburgh has scored 10 or more points in the fourth quarter of every game this season. Pitt has a +63 point differential in the fourth quarter of games, tied with Indiana for the second-best in the FBS (Miami, +66).

No. 92 Mississippi State 3.9% at No. 9 Georgia 96.1%

Georgia has won 37 consecutive games against teams not ranked in the AP Top 25, the second-longest active streak in the FBS (Ohio State, 44). It is the second-longest streak by an SEC team this century behind Alabama’s 100-game streak from 2007 to 2021.

Saturday Night

No. 31 Florida 10.6% at No. 4 Tennessee 89.4%

Tennessee’s only two wins over Florida in these SEC rivals’ 19 meetings both came in Knoxville (2022, 2016) against ranked Florida teams. That matches the Gators’ best record against any opponent since 2005 – they’re also 17-2 versus Vanderbilt in that span.

No. 1 Ohio State 72.1% at No. 20 Oregon 27.9%

Ohio State, ranked No. 1 in our TRACR rankings but No. 2 in the AP Top 25, has lost three straight games against AP top-five opponents and is 2-5 against top-five teams under Ryan Day. Oregon has lost both games played against AP top-five teams under Dan Lanning – with the school’s last win coming in 2021 against Ohio State (ranked No. 3 at the time).

No. 3 Ole Miss 80.8% at No. 29 LSU 19.2%

Ole Miss has lost seven straight games in Death Valley dating back to 2010, with its last road win against the Tigers coming in 2008 (31-13). LSU is averaging 39.2 points per game against the Rebels over this home win streak.

No. 17 Iowa State 73.8% at No. 41 West Virginia 26.2%

The Mountaineers have lost seven in a row against AP Top 25 opponents since beating a 22nd-ranked Cyclones team in 2021. They won 38-31 in Morgantown despite Breece Hall and Brock Purdy combining to rush for 231 yards. That is Iowa State’s only loss in the last five meetings, during which the Cyclones have outgained WVU 1034-345 on the ground.

No. 21 Kansas State 74.4% at No. 51 Colorado 25.6%

Kansas State has rushed for at least 200 yards in seven straight games dating back to last season, tied with Boise State and Army for the longest streak in the FBS. It is tied for the longest such streak by the Wildcats in the last 25 years (2002-03, 2016).

No. 13 Boise St 96.3% at No. 104 Hawaii 3.7%

Boise State RB Aston Jeanty has rushed for three or more touchdowns in four games this season. There are 29 FBS teams yet to rush for three touchdowns in a single game (including Georgia and this week’s opponent, Hawaii). Jeanty’s 16 total rushing TDs are already more than 33 FBS teams had in all of 2023.

No. 7 Indiana, No. 10 Miami (FL), No. 12 Arkansas, No. 14 Nebraska, No. 17 Texas A&M, No. 18 Auburn, No. 23 Virginia Tech and No. 25 Navy have a bye week.

Stats and facts provided by Stats Perform’s data insights team. Be sure to check out our MLB, NBA, NFL and college football coverage. And follow us on X and Instagram for more!