Canelo Alvarez Vs. Edgar Berlanga: Strategic Analysis 

Tonight, at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Unified super middleweight world champion  Canelo Alvarez (61-2-2, 39 KOs) will take on the very hungry WBA mandatory contender, Edgar  Berlanga (22-0, 17 KOs).

A fight that promises fireworks on Mexican Independence weekend.  Berlanga has the bravado, does he have the skills to defeat Canelo? Edgar has claimed  throughout the week that he intends to knock Canelo out in the 6th round. Canelo has made a  similar statement claiming the fight won’t go past the 8th.

Edgar Berlanga is a fighter who started his career on a hot streak with sixteen 1st round  knockouts but has since then fizzled having scored only one knockout in his last six fights.

Scoring a 6th-round knockout against Padraig McCrory in February of this year. In that match similar to his fight against Alexis Angulo, where he attempted to bite Angulo’s ear due to frustration. Edgar Berlanga elbowed McCrory with an elbow in the third round.

Berlanga was suspended six months and suffered a $10,000 fine for that incident against Angulo. This brings  into question Berlanga’s temperament, will he stay levelheaded against Canelo Alvarez? He’s  facing the unified super middleweight champion, arguably one of the best in the sport. He’s  never faced competition at the elite level before.

Canelo will surely be challenging,  demonstrating a skill level Berlanga’s never encountered before. Berlanga’s frustration could lead him to questionable behavior – – throwing elbows and low blows.

Berlanga has stated in press week conferences he intends to be smart and lead his attack by jabbing and boxing at a distance. In the few matches he’s utilized this approach, Berlanga has not looked impressive.

In his match against Marcelo Coceres, he suffered a 9th round knockdown  and Angulo landed several big shots in their match, giving Berlanga a bloody nose. If Berlanga is  unable to defend effectively, he’ll sustain great punishment. Canelo has one of the highest  power punch connect percentage in the sport at 46.3 percent.

Amazingly, Canelo has a higher  output than Berlanga with a 41 to 37.6 average punches thrown per round, respectively  (Compubox). A defensive approach by Berlanga will only decrease his output.

Canelo Alvarez seeks to continue his reign as the super middleweight king. Before him is another hungry fighter looking to make history and take his crown. Canelo has faced this before; if Berlanga chooses to box, Canelo can adjust.

If Berlanga decides to stay in the pocket  and trade with Canelo, he’ll make him pay. Up until now, Canelo has demonstrated to have a  granite chin. Berlanga has good power, but it’s never been tested at the elite level.

Berlanga claims to have great boxing IQ, but his temperament will be put to the test. How will he adjust to Canelo’s power and deceptive speed? In his May fight against Jaime Munguia, Canelo stated that he could see Munguia’s punches coming, which made him miss several times.

Berlanga has struggled against counters in the past, getting hit with several big punches in his matches against Angulo, Coceres, McCrory, and Jason Quigley. If he’s unable to defend Canelo’s power punches, it may be a short night for Berlanga.