Can Sam Darnold Continue to Thrive With the Vikings?

Darnold has found a home, shedding the bust label and rising as one of the 2024’s best QBs so far. Now he’ll try to move the Vikes to 5-0 against a tough Jets defense in London.

When the New York Jets selected quarterback Sam Darnold with the third overall pick of the 2018 NFL Draft, they envisioned one day he would develop into an MVP candidate and lead his team to the playoffs.

Fast forward seven NFL seasons, and his team is 4-0 and he’s an early front-runner for MVP – albeit as the quarterback of the Minnesota Vikings.

Darnold looks to continue his storybook start to the 2024 regular season on Sunday against his former team when the Vikings and Jets meet in London’s Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

Following the offseason departure of Kirk Cousins and a season-ending knee injury to rookie J.J. McCarthy in August, Kevin O’Connell handed the keys to Minnesota’s offense to Darnold.

After flaming out with the Jets, Darnold was starting 2024 with his third team in as many seasons after playing for the Carolina Panthers in 2022 and serving as the backup on the San Francisco 49ers last year.

With Darnold at the helm, expectations were rather low for Minnesota. Exactly how low? Well, prior to the start of the season, our supercomputer projected the Vikings’ season win total at 5.9 – the fewest for any team.

That win total looks to be a smidge low at this point, but little suggested Darnold would be experiencing the career renaissance he’s enjoying in Minnesota.

Sure, he was part of terrible Jets and Panthers teams and never had the weapons nor the offensive system to unleash his full potential, but to predict he would take a leap of this magnitude in O’Connell’s offense and be playing like an MVP candidate was completely unpredictable – even for our supercomputer.

Off to their best start since the 2016 team opened with five straight wins, the Vikings have put the rest of the NFL on notice, and Darnold’s play has been instrumental to their success.

In the latest win – Sunday’s 31-29 victory over the rival Green Bay Packers – Darnold completed 20-of-28 pass attempts for a season-high 275 yards with three touchdowns to give him an NFL-best 11 with just three interceptions on the season.

Last Sunday’s QB rating of 123.4 QB rating was the USC product’s highest since 2019, and he has now registered a passer rating of at least 109, while throwing for multiple touchdown passes in each of his first four games.

To put that in perspective, he had three such games in 43 starts over the past five seasons.

With his latest win, Darnold became just the fourth QB in the Super Bowl era to start 4-0 while recording a passer rating of at least 109 with multiple TD passes in each game, joining Sunday’s counterpart Aaron Rodgers (2011), Russell Wilson (2020) and Tom Brady (2007 and 2016).

4-0 Start With 109.0+ Rating, 2+ TDs in Each Game (Super Bowl ERA)

• 2024 – Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings
• 2020 – Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks 
• 2016 – Tom Brady, New England Patriots 
• 2011 – Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers 
• 2007 – Tom Brady, New England Patriots

This past Sunday was the first time since the season opener Darnold had his top two wide receivers on the field together in Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison after the latter missed the last two games with an ankle injury.

Each receiver caught a touchdown pass with Jefferson finishing with six receptions for 85 yards, while Addison hauled in three balls for 72 yards.

Obviously, having a pair of receivers as talented as Jefferson and Addison lined up on the field together is extremely beneficial, and Darnold is excelling with his throws and decision making when the two are at his disposal.

The return of Addison also gives Darnold another deep threat.

His touchdown to Addison at Lambeau Field was a perfect strike that hit his receiver in stride in the end zone from a play that began on the Packers’ 29-yard line. That was one of several accurate long throws made by Darnold.                            

Against the Packers, Darnold was 7 of 11 for 147 yards on passes thrown between 11-40 yards for an average of 13.4 yards per attempt and a 108.9 QB rating. This came after he was 9 of 16 for 162 yards on such throws in the previous two games for an average of 10.1 yards per attempt and an 85.9 rating.

Not only is Darnold surrounded by better personnel at the skill position, but he’s also playing behind a solid offensive line giving him time to throw. His release time of 3.01 seconds trails only Brock Purdy for the highest in the NFL among the 33 quarterbacks with at least 50 pass attempts.

With more time in the pocket, Darnold isn’t rushed to go through his progression and isn’t just throwing to his first option. He’s throwing to the receiver in which the play was designed 63% of the time – the sixth-lowest rate among qualifying QBs. The NFL average is 69.3%.

Darnold is also second in the league in EVE, which measures the average yards gained compared to the league-wide expected amount in a given situation. His 1.7 average yards gained through the air rank behind only Brock Purdy of the San Francisco 49ers.

He now takes aim at Jets secondary that has been stingy against the pass – granted it hasn’t faced a quarterback that elicits much fear in nearly a month.

After surrendering 231 passing yards to Purdy in a 32-19 season-opening loss, New York has held Will Levis, Jacoby Brissett, Drake Maye and Bo Nix to a combined 372 passing yards with only two throws going for more than 25 yards in the last three games.

That quartet of QBs have completed 59.5% of their passes while averaging 4.71 yards per attempt with a 74.4 QB rating.

New York completely neutralized Denver’s passing game this past Sunday, though it had a couple factors working in its favor.

First off, the conditions were sloppy at rainy MetLife Stadium, making it difficult for both teams to pass. Secondly, they were facing an inexperienced quarterback who has yet to light it up in his rookie year.

In his fourth career start, Nix averaged a mere 2.4 yards per attempt on his 25 throws, but did toss his first touchdown pass and that was enough to help the Broncos escape the Meadowlands with a 10-9 win, dropping the Jets to 2-2.

It wasn’t a pretty statline for Nix, as he became the only QB in the Super Bowl era to win a game while throwing for 60 or fewer yards on at least 25 pass attempts.

Sauce Gardner and D.J Reed will be tested much more this Sunday by Darnold in matchups with Jefferson and Addison. Conversely, this will be one of the better pass defenses the Vikings, who stand on top of the NFC North standings, have faced this season.

Darnold, though, isn’t asked to do everything by himself. Running back Aaron Jones is also thriving in his new home, ranking eighth in the NFL with 320 rushing yards, while Minnesota’s defense is one of the league’s best.

If Darnold and company can continue their sensational start, the Vikings can enjoy the long flight home from London as the NFL’s only 5-0 team.

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