Can Caleb Williams become the Bears’ first 4,000-yard passer?

LAKE FOREST, Ill. — Moments after celebrating the Chicago Bears drafting him with the No. 1 overall pick on April 25, quarterback Caleb Williams was backstage watching a montage of the greatest moments in franchise history.

Narrated by Hall of Famer Mike Singletary, the former Bears linebacker listed the greats who had played for Chicago and how Williams was expected to be next.

But of all the accolades and accomplishments Singletary listed, there was something missing. The Bears are the only NFL franchise never to have a quarterback throw for 4,000 yards or 30 touchdowns in a season.

“You look into it and you wonder why,” Williams said later that night. “I asked questions, obviously. I have no shame in asking questions.

“They told me and my dad the truth about why and what and where and how it’s going to change. That’s what we’re excited about.”

Williams’ quest to erase that blemish begins Sunday against the Tennessee Titans (1 p.m. ET, Fox).

The team’s single-season passing record is held by Erik Kramer, who reached 3,838 yards and 29 TDs during the 1995 season. Jay Cutler, who was the closest the Bears have had to a franchise quarterback, is the team’s all-time passing leader with 23,443 yards, but he never threw for more than 3,812 yards in a season.

Chicago’s rookie record for passing touchdowns is 11 by Charlie O’Rourke in 1942 and 2,193 passing yards by Mitch Trubisky in 2017.

ESPN BET has Williams’ season totals at 22.5 passing touchdowns and 3,451 passing yards as the former Heisman Trophy winner from USC is expected to break multiple team records.

But will he reach 4,000 yards or 30 TDs as a rookie? There have been five rookie quarterbacks to throw for 4,000 yards in NFL history:

• Andrew Luck, 4,374 in 2012

• Justin Herbert, 4,336 in 2020

• C.J. Stroud, 4,108 in 2023

• Cam Newton, 4,051 in 2,011

• Jameis Winston, 4,042 in 2015

Herbert threw 31 TD passes in 2020, the only rookie to top 30.

“I think if Caleb Williams can stay healthy, I do believe he’ll throw for well over 4,000 yards, and he’s going to bring something to this team,” Hall of Fame quarterback and ESPN “Monday Night Football” analyst Troy Aikman said during the Hall of Fame Game on Aug. 1. “… I just think he’s a special, special talent, and I’m really optimistic on what kind of career he’s going to have.”

The biggest reason to be skeptical is the franchise’s history of being unable to produce a prolific quarterback, but there are reasons for optimism. Here are three why Williams might end the Bears’ long history of quarterback futility and could reach 4,000 passing yards and 30 touchdowns.

Three No. 1 receivers

Two wide receivers accounted for the bulk of Kramer’s passing production during the 1995 season: Jeff Graham (1,301 yards) and Curtis Conway (1,037).

Williams has more weapons.

After DJ Moore set career highs in catches (96), receiving yards (1,364 yards) and touchdowns (8) last season, the Bears fortified their receiving corps by trading for Keenan Allen and drafting Rome Odunze with the No. 9 pick. Allen posted the second-most receiving yards (1,243) of his 11-year career with the Los Angeles Chargers in 2023, and Odunze led all FBS programs in receiving (1,640) during Washington’s run to the national title game.

Williams will be the first rookie quarterback in history to start a season opener with two receivers who had at least 90 receptions during the previous NFL season (Allen had 108). He also has a solid tight end in Cole Kmet, who had a career-high 73 receptions in 2023, plus D’Andre Swift, who was top five among running backs in targets (78), receptions (62) and yards (452) during a career year as a pass catcher with the Detroit Lions in 2021.

“I don’t know if we need a No. 1 receiver,” Williams told ESPN. “I think we got a couple No. 1s, and that’s what makes it fun for us on the offensive side of the ball, because it makes it a hell of a lot [more] difficult for the defense on the other teams for the next 18 weeks. …

“They can’t double DJ because you’ve got Keenan and Rome. They can’t double Rome because you’ve got Keenan and DJ. I’m gonna spread the ball around, Keenan’s gonna have fun, DJ’s gonna have fun, Cole [Kmet], Gerald [Everett], Rome, the running backs — Swift and all of them.”

Pass-first mentality

Two plays during the Bears’ 27-3 preseason win over the Bengals on Aug. 17 shed light on Williams’ mindset.

Nearing the end of the second quarter, Williams extended a play with his legs before firing a pass to Odunze in the back right corner of the end zone that would have been a touchdown had the receiver kept his feet inbounds. Two plays later, Williams kept his eyes downfield during a scramble while looking for an open receiver. The play resulted in the quarterback running in a 7-yard touchdown, which was his lone TD of the preseason.

Caleb. Williams.

📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/2YcTQ98uB2

— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) August 17, 2024

In similar situations over the past three seasons, Justin Fields often chose to run the ball before surveying the downfield options.

Knowing when to move off his pass-first mentality and run when necessary is something Williams has worked on throughout training camp.

“It’s a little tough because I like to pass the ball, even in scramble mode,” Williams said. “I tend to lean a lot more towards throwing the ball, throwing the ball for completion, right in front of me, however it may work, something crazy, or just throwing it to the end zone.

“They’ve been coaching me about attacking the line of scrimmage and things like that on my scrambles, on the rollouts, the keepers. So, I’ve been trying to get a little bit better with balancing that and taking what they give me, whether it’s a run for yardage or quick pass in front of me. It’s always a constant battle to do things like that. You just continue to get better at those situations.”

Williams is a capable runner, having rushed for 26 touchdowns in college (2021 at Oklahoma and the next two seasons at USC).

Playcalling

Williams finished his college career with 120 passing and rushing touchdowns. His 45 completions of 40-plus yards over three college seasons were the most in FBS.

Bears offensive coordinator Shane Waldron has been tasked with building a scheme that plays to Williams’ strengths. Getting his quarterback on the move via play-action and designed rollouts were highlights of Williams’ limited action in the preseason when he completed 10 of 20 passes for 170 yards with a 79.2 passer rating.

Williams reaching 4,000 yards passing will rely upon a heavier passing emphasis than the Bears have previously shown. Chicago ranked 30th in designed pass percentage under former OC Luke Getsy (2022-23). During that same stretch, Waldron’s offenses in Seattle ranked seventh. Also, Seattle passed the ball on first down at the sixth-highest rate (56%) in 2023, compared to the Bears, who ranked 25th on first-down passes (49%).

Striking a balance between playing within structure and going off script has been something Waldron has emphasized to his QB during training camp. It was reiterated last week when coach Matt Eberflus said he wants Williams to “play point guard” on early downs by distributing the ball to the skill players first, before, as general manager Ryan Poles put it, “[letting] those wild plays happen at the right time.”

Whether on the move or throwing off-platform, Williams has demonstrated an ability few other Bears quarterbacks were capable of. Harnessing that ability has been a goal for Waldron.

“He can play in rhythm, find those throws,” Waldron said. “And then what’s pretty cool to watch is when the play breaks down, it almost seems like it’s in slow motion for him, and he can find a different rush lane, being smart with the ball, breaking contain and creating some explosives down the field.”