Brighton vs Tottenham Prediction: Premier League Match Preview

Can Ange Postecoglou’s men follow up last week’s impressive win at Old Trafford with another away victory? We look ahead to Sunday’s Premier League game at the Amex Stadium with our Brighton vs Tottenham prediction and preview.

Brighton vs Tottenham Stats: The Key Insights

• The Opta supercomputer gives the edge to Tottenham in this one, with the London club winning 41.2% of its simulations.
• Since the start of last season, no team has drawn more home Premier League games than Brighton (eight).
• Tottenham have had the most shots on target of any team in the Premier League this season (45). In fact, it’s the most shots on target Spurs have had in their opening six games of a campaign on record (since 2003-04).

As recently as a week ago, Brighton and Hove Albion were in high spirits, while Tottenham were hoping to get their season back on track.

The Seagulls losing their unbeaten league status at Chelsea followed by Spurs comprehensively beating Manchester United at Old Trafford has somewhat turned those respective moods around.

The two will meet at the Amex Stadium on Sunday in what feels like another potentially big game for both as they look to point their Premier League campaigns in the right direction.

Brighton were taken apart by Cole Palmer in their 4-2 loss at Chelsea last time out, but they have drawn their last two home Premier League matches. They last drew three in a row in November 2023. In fact, since the start of last season, no team has drawn more home games than Brighton (eight).

Following their disappointing back-to-back defeats to Newcastle United and rivals Arsenal last month, Tottenham have won their last two Premier League games, last winning three in a row in December last year. Spurs have recorded three goals in each victory (3-1 vs Brentford, 3-0 vs Man Utd), and should they score at least three in another win on Sunday, it will be the first time they have done so for three games running since April 2022.

Brighton will need to improve their record in the month of October, having won just one out of 16 October games since 2020 (D9 L6), which was a 4-1 win over Chelsea in 2022. Fabian Hürzeler’s side have started this season well, though, and have had 61.5% possession in the Premier League, Brighton’s highest average in a single campaign in the competition.

Young midfielder Carlos Baleba will be looking to follow up his impressive performance at Stamford Bridge. Having not produced a single goal involvement in any of his first 31 Premier League appearances, Baleba scored and assisted against Chelsea, making him the youngest Cameroonian to do so in a Premier League match (20 years, 269 days).

As for Tottenham, they have been getting forward with intent this season. Only Manchester City (115) have had more shots in the Premier League than Spurs (110), while they have had the most shots on target of any team (45). In fact, it’s the most shots on target Spurs have had in their opening six games of a season on record (since 2003-04).

One of the main reasons for that output has been Dejan Kulusevski, who continued his fine form at Old Trafford last week. He created nine chances in the win over Manchester United, the joint most by a Spurs player in a Premier League game on record (since 2003-04). The only other player to do so was Christian Eriksen, who managed it twice, in 2013 vs Newcastle and 2016 vs Crystal Palace.

Spurs made it five wins in a row in all competitions on Thursday with a 2-1 win at Ferencvárosi TC in the league phase of the Europa League, with goals from Pape Sarr and in-form Brennan Johnson, the latter having scored in all five of those victories.

Dominic Solanke didn’t find the net in Hungary, only coming on as a substitute in the 81st minute, but he will be looking to score in three consecutive Premier League games for the first time since December 2023.

The former Bournemouth striker is celebrating a recall to the England squad for the upcoming UEFA Nations League matches against Greece and Finland, and that decision from interim Three Lions manager Lee Carsley appears to be justified. Since the start of last season, the only Englishmen with more Premier League goals than Solanke (21) are Palmer (28) and Ollie Watkins (23).

As for team news, Brighton will again be without injured trio Jan Paul van Hecke, João Pedro and Matt O’Riley, while checks will be made on Joël Veltman, Simon Adingra and James Milner, who all missed the defeat at Chelsea. However, Hürzeler did confirm on Friday that long-term absentees Brajan Gruda and Solly March are back in training and could potentially feature on Sunday.

Richarlison and Wilson Odobert remain out for Spurs, while Ange Postecoglou said on Friday that captain Son Heung-min, who was absent for last week’s win at Man Utd with a thigh issue, is “unlikely” to be involved. The Australian was more optimistic about Destiny Udogie being ready, though, after he came off at half-time at Old Trafford with muscle tightness.

Brighton vs Tottenham Head-to-Head

Having lost consecutive Premier League home games against Tottenham without scoring in 2021-22 and 2022-23, Brighton won this exact fixture 4-2 last season.

Only one of the 14 Premier League meetings between Brighton and Tottenham has finished as a draw (1-1 in April 2018), with Spurs winning nine to the Seagulls’ four.

Their last meeting was at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in February, which Spurs won 2-1 thanks to a 96th-minute winner from Johnson.

Brighton vs Tottenham Prediction

The Opta supercomputer gives Tottenham the edge in this one, with Postecoglou’s men winning 41.2% of its 10,000 pre-match simulations.

Brighton came out on top 34.2% of the time, meaning almost a quarter of sims (24.6%) ended level.

As for season-long simulations, the supercomputer is currently of the impression that Spurs are likeliest to finish fifth (22.1%), while Brighton finish ninth most often (14.7%).

Brighton vs Tottenham Predicted Lineups

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

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