Blake Snell contract projections and predictions for free agency

With the 2024 season behind us and the Hot Stove ready to burn, we’re taking a closer look at some of the most prominent players eligible for free agency.

Position: Starting pitcher
Team: San Francisco Giants
Age (as of Opening Day 2024): 32
2024 stats: 5-3, 3.12 ERA, 104 IP, 1.048 WHIP, 145 K, 124 ERA+

Coming off a second Cy Young Award last season, Blake Snell went into free agency expecting to choose between a number of multi-year offers.

Things didn’t work out that way for Snell, who was forced to wait until mid-March to sign a two-year, $62 million deal with the Giants. That deal included a $30 million player option for 2025, one Snell declined after posting a stellar second half when you could argue he was the best pitcher in the Majors.

After going 5-0 with a 1.23 ERA over his final 14 starts beginning on July 9, Snell once again carries momentum into free agency. But he’s a year older – he will be pitching in his age-32 season in 2025 – which poses a simple question for Snell this winter: Why will this offseason be any different for him than last year?

Snell’s late signing with the Giants may have contributed to his early-season ineffectiveness – he went 0-3 with an 11.57 ERA in his first three starts before landing on the injured list with a groin injury. Snell returned on May 22, making three starts before his groin issue resulted in a second trip to the IL.

The left-hander certainly redeemed himself with his superb second half, but now he returns to the free-agent market in search of the long-term deal that eluded him a year ago.

Let’s take a look at how Snell’s offseason might play out:

At his introductory press conference, new president of baseball operations Buster Posey called Snell “one of the premier starting pitchers in the big leagues,” noting that he is “going to be a priority for us to take a hard look at and make a decision as a group.” The Giants will have a big hole to fill if they are unable to re-sign Snell, who enjoyed success pitching at Oracle Park, posting a 2.85 ERA in 11 home starts. San Francisco did what was necessary to keep Matt Chapman in a Giants uniform after signing him to a similar deal last winter, but it remains to be seen whether they can or will do the same with Snell.

Gerrit Cole’s return to the Bronx might have impacted the Yankees’ interest in Snell, who would have been a candidate to replace the ace had he become a free agent. New York showed interest in Snell a year ago, though given the Yankees’ desire to bring back Juan Soto on a deal that will likely exceed $500 million, the best shot for Snell to wind up in pinstripes would be for Soto to sign with a new club.

The Mets are considered co-favorites to sign Soto, which would obviously have a sizable impact on their payroll. But New York could face the loss of starting pitchers Sean Manaea and Luis Severino, each of whom was extended a qualifying offer on Monday. Should both starters depart via free agency, filling those holes in the rotation would become a priority for the Mets, who could turn to Snell to help fortify the starting staff.

Los Angeles has been in the mix for Snell in the past, both on the free-agent and trade markets, and with a projected rotation led by Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow and Shohei Ohtani (assuming his left shoulder surgery isn’t an issue), the need for a frontline starter isn’t necessarily clear. But given Glasnow’s health history, the uncertainty over Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin’s health, the loss of Gavin Stone for 2025, and the potential departures of Jack Flaherty and Walker Buehler to free agency, the Dodgers – who were forced to throw a bullpen game in the World Series – could look to Snell as they take aim at a repeat.

Boston’s 4.04 ERA ranked ninth in the American League, and while its 3.81 rotation ERA ranked fifth in the league, the club was in the middle of the pack in innings pitched by its starters and lacked a veteran ace. Only three Red Sox starters threw as many as 160 innings – Kutter Crawford, Tanner Houck and Brayan Bello – and adding a No. 1 starter to the group would seem to be a priority for Boston this offseason.

Baltimore made a big splash last winter with its trade for ace Corbin Burnes, but the former Cy Young Award winner is now a free agent, leaving a huge hole atop the rotation. Burnes – who like Snell is represented by Scott Boras – is expected to land a mega-deal that could mean the end of his time with the Orioles, and while Snell will certainly command a large contract, he’s two years older than Burnes and is likely to require a shorter-term commitment than the one Burnes should receive.

Toronto’s window to contend is as open as it may be for a while, as Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Chris Bassitt are among more than a half-dozen players entering the final year of their contract in 2025. Kevin Gausman will be a free agent after the 2026 season, potentially opening another hole in the rotation at that time. Signing Snell would not only boost the Blue Jays’ chances of returning to the postseason next season, but also help fill the void in future years should Bassitt and/or Gausman leave as free agents.

“Snell will likely face the same challenges as last year in terms of seeking a long-term agreement. Entering his age-32 season, some of the concerns of durability and health remain the same. While he has a plus fastball and can essentially use any of his breaking balls as an out pitch, the concern is that he has only thrown 180 innings twice in his career. That’s alarming. However, Snell did have a strong second half and ended the year with a higher strikeout percentage and lower walk percentage than his 2023 season. Snell will always have stuff, it’s just a matter of whether a team wants to sign him long-term, understanding the risk that he will likely be unavailable for a period of time throughout the year. That said, one of the big-market competitive teams will probably give him that long-term contract that he’s looking for, so opting out of his deal made sense. He did win the Cy Young in his two 180-inning seasons, so it’s definitely in there.”

Consistency is the biggest question when it comes to Snell. Prior to 2022, he had never put together consecutive strong seasons, and while his success over the past three years may have allayed those concerns, he made 25-plus starts in only one of those seasons. Snell’s availability might be the biggest red flag; the left-hander has topped the 130-inning mark only twice in his career: his two Cy Young campaigns, in which he threw 180 2/3 and 180 innings.

Carlos Rodón landed a six-year, $162 million deal with the Yankees prior to the 2023 season, parlaying two solid seasons into a long-term, nine-figure contract. Rodón was far less decorated than Snell when he reached free agency, but he was entering his age-30 season and had posted a 2.67 ERA in 55 starts over the previous two years when he hit the market. Snell should receive an average annual value higher than Rodón’s $27 million, but likely for fewer guaranteed years.