Big Ten basketball preseason media poll: MSU a contender? Is Michigan turned around?

BLOOMINGTON – Here goes nothing.

That’s how one esteemed voter in this year’s media-organized preseason Big Ten men’s basketball poll led into their ballot this fall. And with good reason.

Ballooned to 18 teams and chockablock with transfers and intriguing freshmen, I can’t remember a time when the conference was so hard to forecast. The schedule has never been more unbalanced. We have no idea what effects travel will have, or how styles might make fights with four Pac-12 teams in the door.

It is going to be a wild and whacky Big Ten basketball season. And I suspect we wouldn’t have it any other way.

This year, I was honored to be asked by Adam Jardy of the Columbus Dispatch to help administer our annual media poll. Big Ten writers have been pulling this together since the conference itself lopped off order of finish some years ago, and we’re still at it no matter how big the crowd gets.

We’ve typically aimed for two voters per school (per beat, really), but the sheer size of the conference made that a little trickier this year. We managed to get at least one from all 18 teams, and finished with 33 participants out of a possible 36. The poll is officially bi-coastal.

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Parsing this year’s ballot (which includes predicted order of finish, player, freshman and transfer of the year, and two all-conference teams) was no easy feat. The transfer portal has introduced a remarkable sense of the unknown into the discussion, an uncertainty only intensified by a deeply unbalanced schedule. Eight players received at least one vote for transfer of the year, while only three of the five players receiving at least one player-of-the-year vote competed in the Big Ten last season.

All of which builds to a reporter’s plea: We’re gonna get some of this wrong. Please don’t hold it against us.

The final results of our poll as follows, with two-time defending champion Purdue leading the way. In the interest of transparency, my ballot is below the final results, with some methodology included.

Here goes nothing:

Projected Big Ten basketball 2024-25 standings

(first-places votes in parenthesis):

1. Purdue, 572 (20)

2. Indiana, 549 (7)

3. UCLA, 510 (2)

4. Illinois, 458 (2)

5. Michigan State, 448 (1)

6. Oregon, 412

7. Rutgers, 391

8. Ohio State, 369 (1)

9. Michigan, 342

10. Maryland, 263

11. Iowa, 249

T-12 Wisconsin, 212

T-12 Nebraska, 212

14. USC, 196

15. Washington, 158

16. Northwestern, 153

17. Penn State, 87

18. Minnesota, 62

Big Ten Preseason Player of the Year

Braden Smith, Purdue (27).

Also receiving votes: Oumar Ballo, Indiana, Ace Bailey, Rutgers (2); Kobe Johnson, UCLA (1), Payton Sandfort, Iowa (1).

Big Ten Freshman of the Year

Dylan Harper, Rutgers (19.5).

Also receiving votes: Ace Bailey, Rutgers (12.5); Kasparas Jakucionis, Illinois (1).

Big Ten Transfer of the Year

Oumar Ballo, Indiana (17).

Also receiving votes: Great Osobor, Washington, Myles Rice, Indiana (4); Vlad Goldin, Michigan (3); Kylan Boswell, Illinois, (2); Tyler Bilodeau, UCLA, Ja’Kobe Gillespie, Maryland, Saint Thomas, USC (1).

First-team preseason All-Big Ten team

Braden Smith, Purdue (64)

Payton Sandford, Iowa (48)

Oumar Ballo, Indiana (47)

Bruce Thornton, Ohio State (34)

Dylan Harper, Rutgers (32)

Second-team preseason All-Big Ten team

Jackson Shelstad, Oregon (30)

Ace Baldwin Jr., Penn State (26)

Great Osobor, Washington (26)

Ace Bailey, Rutgers (25)

Dawson Garcia, Minnesota (23)

Also receiving votes: Brooks Barnhizer, Northwestern, Malik Reneau, Indiana (19); Mackenzie Mgbako and Myles Rice, Indiana (13); Kasparas Jakucionis, Illinois (12); Vlad Goldin, Michigan (11); Desmond Claude, USC, Julian Reese, Maryland (7); Dylan Andrews, UCLA (6); Brice Williams, Nebraska (5); Jaden Akins, Michigan State, Kylan Boswell, Illinois (4); Xavier Booker, Michigan State, Kobe Johnson, UCLA (3); Tyler Bilodeau, UCLA, Frankie Fidler, Michigan State, Owen Freeman, Iowa, Ja’Kobe Gillespie, Maryland, Trey Kaufman-Renn, Purdue, Saint Thomas, USC (2); Meechie Johnson, Ohio State, Fletcher Loyer, Purdue, Sebastian Mack, UCLA (1).

Zach Osterman’s Big Ten preseason ballot

Deep breath.

I’ve voted in this poll for roughly a decade now. This was the hardest ballot I’ve ever pulled together. There are just so many considerations that are difficult to weigh against one another. With that in mind, a few notes:

∎ I leaned hard on Bart Torvik’s preseason conference projections, not just team rankings but projected strength of schedule as well. Obviously those numbers will be refined with time and games once the season starts, but I used them as a starting point.

∎ As a rule, I’ve never voted for freshmen in preseason polls in categories that weren’t freshman-specific.

It is not difficult for me to see some freshmen (Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey prominent among them) cracking into postseason all-conference teams. But unlike with returners and transfers, there’s just no body of evidence to compare them to the rest of the league yet.

And while you are free to disagree with that, I’d point out no freshman has ever won Big Ten player of the year. In fact, in the past 20 years only eight freshmen have been voted first-team All-Big Ten (Greg Oden, Mike Conley, Robbie Hummel, Eric Gordon, Jared Sullinger, Melo Trimble, D’Angelo Russell, Hunter Dickinson) by either the media or the coaches. It’s not a forgiving league to first-year players.

∎ I tended to dock West Coast teams a place or two out of concern for travel. I like Oregon this year. UCLA could be very good as well. Washington has a coach I respect and USC is a big unknown. Until we see these teams learn to navigate all the miles and time changes, though, it felt prudent to consider that a significant factor.

All that in mind, here’s my ballot, with some annotations beneath each category:

Predicted order of finish

1. Purdue

2. Illinois

3. Indiana

4. Michigan State

5. UCLA

6. Oregon

7. Rutgers

8. Wisconsin

9. Ohio State

10. Michigan

11. Northwestern

12. Nebraska

13. USC

14. Washington

15. Iowa

16. Maryland

17. Penn State

18. Minnesota

Purdue got a lot of our votes because of what it has returning plus, I’m guessing, respect for what it’s achieved the past two years. Indiana was its closest competition at the top. I like the Hoosiers, as you’ll see by their representation in my player votes, but the schedule troubles me. That run of seven road games in 11, with some really tricky trips included, just looks like a daunting hill to climb to get to 14-15 wins, which is what I think it will take to win the league.

Outside the top four, I think potential title contenders include Oregon, Rutgers and maybe Michigan. They will need to navigate, in order, demanding travel, a big freshman learning curve and a first-year coach’s adjustment to the league to get into that mix.

Player of the year: Braden Smith, Purdue

Freshman of the year: Dylan Harper, Rutgers

Transfer of the year: Myles Rice, Indiana

No real surprise on Smith, who dominated our POY voting. Ace Bailey might be the better NBA prospect, but I went with Harper for freshman of the year because he seems likely to be more involved in more success, as a point guard. Ballo won transfer of the year, a nod, I suspect, to his consistent, proven production at a high-major program before transferring to IU. But for the moment, I’m taking Mike Woodson at his word about playing smaller and faster, which means Rice will feature prominently.

Also, if you go roster by roster, this suddenly looks like a point guard’s league in 2024-25. It’s beautiful.

First-team All-Big Ten

Braden Smith, Purdue

Myles Rice, Indiana

Ace Baldwin, Penn State

Payton Sandfort, Iowa

Brooks Barnhizer, Northwestern

I might be driving it at this point, but I invite you to join me on the Brooks Barnhizer hype train. All the dude does is stuff stat sheets, and Northwestern will ask more of him with Boo Buie gone.

Second-team All-Big Ten

Jackson Shelstad, Oregon

Bruce Thornton, Ohio State

Dawson Garcia, Minnesota

Malik Reneau, Indiana

Oumar Ballo, Indiana

Shelstad might top the list of players at former Pac-12 schools Big Ten fans should get to know first, because he’s good and he’s a big reason why Oregon might be as well. Thornton will be key to surprisingly high expectations for Ohio State. I wasn’t sure about Garcia here, given how much else Minnesota has lost, but out of respect for his considerable career production, he made the list.

So, there you go. A whole bunch of this is probably going to look silly in March, and I’ll wear it when it does. That’s life in a league that’s harder to pin down and predict than it has been in years, if not ever.

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This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Big Ten basketball 2024-25 preseason media poll, All-Big 10 teams