Arthur Smith Study: Offensive EPA Success By Down (2019-2023)

Continuing to learn about new Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, I wanted to dive into how things have shaken out on a down-by-down basis. That is an extremely important facet of how a team performs with the goal to see what we can glean for the 2024 season.

The stats I will use are Expected Points Added per play (EPA/play) and success sates (EPA > 0) via nflfastR, including all run and pass plays for every NFL offense since 2019 (160 qualifiers). On the visuals, Smith’s coaching stops, and Pittsburgh squads will have colored logos for easier comparative context.

First, here are offenses total EPA and success to give a lay of the land:

In totality, we can see that the 2020 Tennessee Titans were by far the best team we’re focused on, as they have been in several of my studies. That year was Smith’s second season as their offensive coordinator, an impressive unit that ranked third-best in total EPA/play (0.189) and total success rate (50.8) since 2019, a rather encouraging feat.

Smith’s first season with the 2019 Titans was also above-average, with a 0.063 total EPA/play that tied for 41st out of 160 qualifiers, along with a 45.7 total success rate that landed 51st. In Smith’s return to an OC position in Pittsburgh, the hope is a return to results closer to that time in Tennessee.

Following that success, Smith became the head coach in Atlanta, from 2021-2023. But his results diminished and were more lockstep to how Pittsburgh has fared in that time frame. The strongest Falcons team was in 2022, posting an above average 45.4 success rate that ranked 11th that season, and a 0.002 EPA/play that dropped to 19th.

Pittsburgh had very similar numbers the same season: 0.012 EPA/play, 45.1 success rate, with season ranks of 14th in each. The 2020 season was next best: 0.035 EPA/play, 43.9 success, but lower ranks of 17th and 25th.

Unfortunately, the 2023 season was well below-average for Smith and Pittsburgh. Atlanta had a -0.089 total EPA/play (27th), 41.5 success rate (20th). Steelers had a -0.064 EPA/play (23rd), 42.3 success rate (16th). Considering how poor the Steelers’ offense was last season, the Falcons finishing worse says a lot.

Smith’s first year as Falcons head coach was nothing to write home about either: -0.076 EPA/play and a 41.2 success rate that both ranked 27th in 2021. So, Smith coached three teams that were above-average (TEN ’19, TEN ’20, ATL ’22), while two were well below the NFL mean (ATL ’21, ATL ’23).

Two other Pittsburgh teams land on the bottom left, QB Ben Roethlisberger’s final season in 2021 and 2019 when the position was ravaged by injury. In 2021: -0.051 EPA/play (23rd), 40.2 success rate (30th). In 2019: -0.136 EPA/play, 38.5 success rate, ranking an abysmal 31st in each, along with being ninth and seventh worst since 2019.

Scoring was definitely down across the league in 2023, including in Pittsburgh. But there were worse situations, namely four teams in the bottom five of the entire time frame in EPA/play: the Panthers, Giants, Patriots, and Jets. How this trends will be very interesting to monitor for 2024.

Next, here are how drives started on first downs:

Obviously first downs are the most frequent, where Smith had three above-average units in each, compared to none for Pittsburgh. The 2020 Titans were his best once again, with a 0.085 EPA/play (sixth), and 46.6 success rate (ninth). Those ranks were a bit lower that their totals that season though (second, first).

The 2019 season moved up the charts compared to their totals that year, with a 0.05 EPA/play (fifth) and 45.4 success rate (fourth). The 2022 Falcons were the other, with 0.033 EPA/play (seventh), 43.3 success rate (14th).

Here are Pittsburgh’s season ranks:

FIRST DOWN

2019: EPA/play (30th), success rate (29th)
2020: EPA/play (19th), success rate (29th)
2021: EPA/play (31st), success rate (31st)
2022: EPA/play (28th), success rate (18th)
2023: EPA/play (13th), success rate (6th)

Very poor overall, including negative EPA numbers each season. Surprisingly, 2023 was their best success by far, emphasizing how big an issue first downs have been in Pittsburgh since 2019.

Like the original view, 2021 and last season were unfortunately below-average for Smith in Atlanta. Those numbers came out at -0.089 EPA/play (29th) and 38.4 success rate (29th) in 2021, while last year was even worse: -0.144 EPA/play (29th), 37.9 success rate (27th).

So, the hope is Smith can return to the success on his resume as Pittsburgh’s OC, boding well with a stronger roster than Atlanta’s, and riding the positive trend the Steelers had starting drives in 2023.

Now for second downs:

The 2020 Titans, wow. They comfortably ranked first in the entire time frame with a 0.312 EPA and 56.2 success rate. For context to how good that is, the 2019 Ravens ranked second-best in each with 0.238 and 53.5 numbers. Really impressive showing from Tennessee.

Smith had the only other comfortably above-average marks of focused teams in his other season with Tennessee. That 2019 unit posting a 0.165 EPA/play and 48.4 success rate. That EPA also ranked impressively at 13th in the timeframe, so we see that Smith was quite good as an OC on second down, encouragingly.

That is music to my ears after the Steelers’ 2023 season, when I wrote about them having an obvious second down problem. This visual also hammers that point home, with the lowest 39.6 success rate of focused teams, and 13th worst in the time frame. Their -0.056 second down EPA/play wasn’t much better, landing 27th last season.

We also see Pittsburgh largely on the bottom left in the five-year span. 2020 and 2022 were near league average, while the others were well below it:

PITTSBURGH SECOND DOWN

2019: EPA/play (31st), success rate (28th)
2020: EPA/play (21st), success rate (22nd)
2021: EPA/play (19th), success rate (25th)
2022: EPA/play (18th), success rate (18th)
2023: EPA/play (23rd), success rate (27th)

So, 2019 were the worst ranks and lowest EPA as you’d expect. Pittsburgh’s lowest 39.6 success rate in 2023 was its only one below 40 percent. Only 16 out of the 160 qualifiers were below that mark. Whoof.

While it was better than first down, Smith’s 2021 and 2023 Falcons were below-average again: 2021 – 0.006 EPA/play (18th), 42.5 success rate (27th). In 2023 -0.036 EPA/play (21st), 44.2 success rate (16th).

Here are how things transpired on crucial third downs:

Overall, the 10 teams we’re focused on landed more in the middle of the pack since 2019. Discouragingly, none topped the chart like the previous view, but the flipside is none bottomed the league either, encouragingly.

THIRD DOWN RANKS

PIT 2019: EPA/play (16th), success rate (22nd)
PIT 2020: EPA/play (13th), success rate (16th)
PIT 2021: EPA/play (16th), success rate (20th)
PIT 2022: EPA/play (8th), success rate (7th)
PIT 2023: EPA/play (25th), success rate (21st)

TEN 2019: EPA/play (17th), success rate (18th)
TEN 2020: EPA/play (seventh), success rate (6th)
ATL 2021: EPA/play (23rd), success rate (17th)
ATL 2022: EPA/play (20th), success rate (13th)
ATL 2023: EPA/play (25th), success rate (21st)

The 2022 season was Pittsburgh’s best mark, within the top 10 in each, which was QB Kenny Pickett’s rookie year. That unfortunately regressed to their worst 25th EPA ranking in the time frame last year, and second worst 41.5 success rate, with the expected 2019 group barley below that (40.9). One aspect to the many changes we saw for Pittsburgh’s offense this offseason, including Smith.

You guessed it, the 2020 Titans were still his best unit on the money down. Otherwise though, we see it was largely average or below in the time frame for Smith. On the encouraging side, the other four Steelers seasons sported positive third down EPA numbers, so there are recent samples of success organizationally.

Here’s to hoping that, along with a return to OC duties for Smith, is the perfect marriage.

Fewer plays here, but here are desperation fourth down results:

I won’t dive as deep here, but the far less frequent fourth downs are of course part of the puzzle. Pittsburgh in 2022 had the best marks, with a 0.939 fourth down EPA/play that ranked third that year, and 12th best among all qualifiers. On the other end of the spectrum was in 2019, very lonely as the NFL’s worst fourth down offense. The Steelers’ -2.364 EPA was nearly an entire point worse than anyone else (-1.439 was second-worst).

So, Tennessee in 2020 was the other clearly above-average team, as it was the entire study. Otherwise, Smith’s teams were below-average on fourth down. Put simply, Smith’s 2020 success is obviously the best-case scenario. He was also top 10 his entire time with the Titans on early downs, while late downs were more average in 2019.

His time in Atlanta was largely worse, with 2022 being his best team as expected, with the other two teams really struggling on first downs in particular. Encouragingly, there was progression on third downs in his three years as head coach, while fourth downs were a struggle compared to Pittsburgh.

Here’s to hoping for a very successful season for Pittsburgh’s offense in 2024, cause boy the Steelers are due for it.

To close, here’s a table of the rankings by season, including all the data used today: