Arthur Smith Study: Explosive Play Touchdown Drives (2019-2023)

Continuing the series, learning about new Pittsburgh Steelers OC Arthur Smith, I wanted to dive deeper into an important aspect of successful offenses – explosive plays. In a recent article, I examined explosive and negative play rates for Smith and the Steelers. Of those teams, Smith had the only above the mean results since 2019 as OC in Tennessee (2019-2020).

With that quantity context outlining, today I wanted to look at and provide data on how explosive plays impacted touchdown drives. In other words, what percentage of explosive plays resulted in a touchdown drive (explosive play touchdown drive rate). I also wanted to include the rate of explosive plays that were touchdowns (explosive play touchdown rate) to add context to what point in the drive the big plays came on average.

Here are the results:

Lots of important info here. First, not only were the Titans above average in quantity as I stated in the opening, they landed on the top right of the chart in these data points as well.

In 2020, Smith’s second season as Tennessee’s OC, they posted a particularly strong 67.19 explosive play touchdown drive rate that ranked tenth-most of any offense since 2019 (160 qualifying teams). So, explosive plays were extremely impactful on their scoring drives that season. Their 18.75 explosive play touchdown rate was also strong, but landed lower in comparison at 46th.

The 2019 season featured a better 22.22 explosive play touchdown rate, ranking 17th in the timeframe, and 57.72-percent of their touchdown drives included an explosive play (33rd). Both seasons featured strong results with Smith at OC, and hopefully a return to that job title will bode well to his time in Pittsburgh.

Looking at Smith’s as a head coach with Atlanta, we see poorer results. Many factors go into this, such as team talent and job responsibilities to name a few, but unfortunate nonetheless.

This was particularly true for the 2021 and 2022 Falcons. The former was Smith’s first season as head coach, with a 43.48 explosive play touchdown drive rate and 6.52 explosive play touchdown rate. Both were in the bottom-20 among the 160 qualifiers, especially the latter at seventh worst.

That was also an issue in 2022, with a 7.41 explosive play touchdown rate that landed one rank higher, along with a 42.59 explosive play touchdown drive rate that was also bottom-20 in the timeframe. Polar ends of the spectrum for Smith in Tennessee and Atlanta.

A positive recent trend in 2023 for Atlanta and Smith was an improvement in explosive play touchdown rate with a 15.79 number. That landed virtually at the mean among qualifiers though, emphasizing an overall issue in his three seasons at Atlanta. This included a third-straight below the mean explosive play touchdown drive rate, but that 45.61 result was a team best since 2021.

Here is how all of Smith’s coaching stops have panned out:

TEN19: 72 explosive plays (T-26th), 59.72 explosive play TD drive rate (33rd), 22.22 explosive play TD rate (17th).

TEN20: 64 explosive plays (T-70th), 67.19 explosive play TD drive rate (10th), 18.75 explosive play TD rate (46th).

ATL21: 46 explosive plays (T-137th), 43.48 explosive play TD drive rate (143rd), 6.52 explosive play TD rate (154th).

ATL22: 54 explosive plays (T-108th), 42.59 explosive play TD drive rate (146th), 7.41 explosive play TD rate (155th).

ATL23: 57 explosive plays (T-96th), 45.61 explosive play TD drive rate (128th), 15.79 explosive play TD rate (T-75th).

So, the hope is for Smith to rekindle his Tennessee days, especially considering the impact it had for those winning teams, compared to Atlanta’s losing records each season. Explosive plays matter.

The visual also emphasizes how Pittsburgh has fared, with explosive play issues particularly the last three seasons, which likely doesn’t come as a surprise.

Here are the Steelers numbers since 2019:

PIT19: 46 explosive plays (T-137th), 50.00 explosive play TD drive rate (T-101st), 23.91 explosive play TD rate (tenth).

PIT20: 58 explosive plays (T-90th), 58.62 explosive play TD drive rate (44th), 24.14 explosive play TD rate (ninth).

PIT21: 50 explosive plays (T-124th), 48.00 explosive play TD drive rate (T-116th), 12.00 explosive play TD rate (T-126th).

PIT22: 52 explosive plays (T-116th), 36.54 explosive play TD drive rate (155th), 3.85 explosive play TD rate (dead last).

PIT23: 55 explosive plays (T-105th), 36.36 explosive play TD drive rate (156th), 16.36 explosive play TD rate (65th).

We can clearly see the last three years were largely abysmal with many ranks in the hundreds. One sliver of light came last season, with a 65th-rank in explosive play touchdown rate, after ranking dead last in that stat in 2022. In 2020, Pittsburgh had their best marks in all the data, substantially in the rates overall, along with their most such plays.

The latter was still below average, and re-emphasizes how the explosive play has lacked for some time in Pittsburgh compared to the rest of the NFL. 2019 was a bit surprising as well, ranking in the top ten in explosive play touchdown rate, but the expected part was it being on their lowest number of explosive plays in an injury riddled season at quarterback.

So, like several of my other Smith studies, his 2019 and 2020 Titans had the best results in quality and quantity. The head coach experiment in Atlanta was a much different story, for the worse overall. They did positively trend in 2023, encouragingly, particularly in explosive touchdowns.

A similar question and hope throughout the series resurfaces: Will Smith be able lead a 2024 Pittsburgh offense to results closer to his Tennessee days where he held the same title (offensive coordinator), or will explosive plays remain an issue for longer in Pittsburgh? Only time will tell.