Are the Los Angeles Rams an NFC Contender Once Again?

Coming off their most impressive win of the season, the Los Angeles Rams seem to have quickly pivoted from a seller to a team that could make a playoff push. So what happened?

The reports of the Los Angeles Rams’ demise were greatly exaggerated. 

Just two days after news broke that the Rams were potentially shopping Pro Bowl wide receiver Cooper Kupp, they put up a season-best 30 points in a huge win over the Minnesota Vikings in Week 8.

It was the first time Kupp and fellow wideout Puka Nacua were in the lineup together since Week 1, and it helped spark the team’s best scoring output since Week 16 of the 2023 season.

With its second consecutive win, Los Angeles appears to have a renewed sense of hope in a season that looked like it was quickly slipping away because of injuries across the offense.

Though the 3-4 Rams technically sit at the bottom of the NFC West, they’re only a half-game back of first place with the Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks all sitting at 4-4.

It’s easy to pin the offensive turnaround on Kupp and Nacua’s return. The pair accounted for 157 of quarterback Matthew Stafford’s 279 passing yards and opened things up for other playmakers like third-string receiver DeMarcus Robinson and running back Kyren Williams. Robinson caught two of Stafford’s four passing touchdowns, while Williams rushed for nearly 100 yards and scored a receiving touchdown (Kupp had the fourth).

On a deeper level, though, the Rams looked like a completely different team on offense with their two best pass catchers in the lineup. Los Angeles had the 12th-best passing success rate in the NFL from Weeks 1-7, but it had the sixth highest this past week. On third down, the Rams went from 28th in passing success rate during the first seven weeks to 10th in Week 8.

We define success rate as how often a team gains or allows a successful play. For example, 50% of the yards to gain on first down, 70% on second down, or 100% on third or fourth downs.

The trickle-down affect reached the offensive line and running game, too. Los Angeles saw nearly half as many heavy boxes in Week 8 as it did from Weeks 1-7, and the team’s sack-allowed rate fell from 7.7% to 0.0% this past week.

Injuries forced the Rams to get creative on the offensive line this season, which made the loss of Kupp and Nacua felt even more given their sudden reliance on the running game and lack of pass catchers on the outside through the first half of the season.

But despite the bounty of configurations, Los Angeles has put together a solid group despite the absences of center Steve Avila and left guard Jonah Jackson. Right guard Kevin Dotson and left tackle Alaric Jackson both have pass-block win rates well above the league averages, and veteran right tackle Rob Havenstein remains a stabilizing force after he missed Week 1.

The biggest issues with the Rams are – unsurprisingly – at Avila’s and Jackson’s spots on the line. Center Beaux Limmer and left guard Logan Bruss have been well-below league average at their positions this season at pass blocking. 

However, the Rams had the lowest pressure rate in Week 8 at just 10.8% – almost four full percentage points ahead of the Philadelphia Eagles. And they did it against a Vikings defense that blitzes at the second-highest rate in the NFL.

The addition of Kupp and Nacua couldn’t have made that drastic of an impact on an offensive line that seems to finally be gelling a bit.

A Youthful Defense Peaking at the Right Time

While the offense hummed in Week 8, the defense has been progressing over the past four weeks and now stands to be a key factor in the team’s potential rise into contention in the NFC.

The Rams went from allowing a success rate of 46.7% through the first three weeks (third worst in the NFL) to ranking seventh in the league by allowing just a 35.5% mark in Weeks 5-8. 

The young defensive core of Jared Verse and Bryon Young on the edges with Braden Fiske and Kobie Turner up front have been the keys to this turnaround.

The Rams had the fifth-, seventh- and ninth-lowest pressure rate, blitz rate and sack rate, respectively, from Weeks 1-4. But those ranks bloomed to 11th in pressure and sack rate and sixth in blitz rate from Weeks 5-8. That doesn’t happen if this quartet doesn’t play at a higher level consistently over the past four weeks.

A quality pass rush is reflective of a better pass defense as well. The Rams allowed the third-highest passing success rate from Weeks 1-4 but have since allowed the fifth-lowest passing success rate over the past four weeks.

Those movements reflected the Rams ability to stymie scoring drives as well – especially in the second half. Los Angeles won all three of its games when it allowed 10 points or fewer in the second half and lost all four when it allowed 14 or more.

The team’s second-half defense has been so good it hasn’t allowed a second-half touchdown since the third quarter of a Week 6 loss to the Green Bay Packers.

But Are the Rams Actually NFC Contenders?

The win over the Vikings is perhaps a sign the Rams have experienced a turning point in their season both with a fully operational offense and rising defense. But the road to the postseason remains arduous at best.

Our prediction model gives Los Angeles 8.0 projected wins and 8.9 losses (it factors in potential ties) with just a 24.6% chance to make the postseason and a 16.4% chance to win the NFC West.

NFC West Projections (as of Thursday)

Fortunately, the Rams still have four divisional contests left after splitting their first two: two against the Seahawks (on the road Week 9 and a season finale match at home), a road game against the 49ers in Week 15 and home game against the Cardinals in Week 17.

An NFC West title might be the easiest path to the postseason for Los Angeles, too, as it has only two other NFC opponents in the second half of the season. Division like the NFC North and NFC East both have at least two teams with four or five wins already, meaning it will be a tough race for the three wild-card spots.

A lot needs to break right for Los Angeles, but if Week 8 has proven anything, a healthy Rams team is one to fear in the NFC. Stafford has proven he can play at a high-caliber level with a full complement of weapons and solid offensive line, and the defense has finally found its groove after it lost Aaron Donald to retirement in the offseason.

And head coach Sean McVay has done this before. His squad’s only loss in the final eight weeks of the 2023 regular season was an overtime setback against the Baltimore Ravens and the Rams made the postseason as a No. 6 seed. The 2024 team has a lot of the same characteristics. 

For a team that looked like it might be sellers at the trade deadline earlier this year, the Rams suddenly look more like a team on the rise. 

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