AFC South betting preview – Texans favored to defend division title

Aug 29, 2024, 09:28 AM ET

The Houston Texans pulled off an epic turnaround, going from last (3-13-1 in 2022) to first (10-7) in the AFC South last season and reaching the divisional round of the playoffs. Led by 2023 No. 2 overall pick C.J. Stroud (+850 to win MVP, behind only Patrick Mahomes) and buoyed by one of the best receiver trios in the NFL following the addition of former Buffalo Bills star Stefon Diggs, Houston enters this season as the favorite to repeat as AFC South champs (+105). The Texans also bolstered their backfield by trading for RB Joe Mixon.

The Jacksonville Jaguars were runners-up to the Texans last season after having won the South in 2022. They lost free agent WR Calvin Ridley to the division rival Tennessee Titans, but addressed the need at wide receiver by selecting LSU’s Brian Thomas Jr. (-115 to record 750.5+ receiving yards) with the No. 23 overall pick in April’s draft and also signed Gabe Davis.

The Indianapolis Colts‘ fortunes will be heavily tied to the health of Anthony Richardson. The quarterback flashed as a rookie last season but appeared in just four games. He suffered a concussion in Week 2 before a Week 4 shoulder injury ended his season prematurely.

The Colts gave Richardson more help by selecting WR Adonai Mitchell in the second round of the draft and also beefed up the defense by taking DE Laiatu Latu at No. 15 overall.

It’s a new era for the Titans, who have moved on from franchise legend Derrick Henry. In his place is the tandem of RB Tony Pollard and second-year RB Tyjae Spears. They will be tasked with trying to (somewhat) replace Henry’s tremendous production. Tennessee added Ridley to pair with WR DeAndre Hopkins, but the Titans remain well behind the other teams in the AFC South in terms of odds, coming in at 9-1 to win the division.

Here are all the odds for the AFC South teams and our thoughts on potential wagers.

Odds as of publication. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET.

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Courtesy ESPN Stats & Information

ESPN Analytics gave the Texans an 11% preseason chance of winning their division last season, the lowest of the four AFC South teams and ahead of only the New England Patriots (6%) and Las Vegas Raiders (4%) in the AFC. The Jaguars had a 55% chance of winning the division, the second-highest among AFC teams, behind the Kansas City Chiefs (57%), but finished 9-8 and missed the playoffs.
ESPN Analytics doesn’t project a close race this season, with Houston’s chances to win the AFC South at 53% being well ahead of the Jaguars (23%) and Colts (21%). The Titans are projected with just a 5% chance to win the division.
C.J. Stroud, the 2023 NFL leader in passing yards per game (273.9) and TD-INT ratio (4.6, 23 passing TDs, five INTs). is the first rookie to lead the NFL in TD-INT ratio (minimum 15 passing TDs in a season), according to Elias.
Stefon Diggs has recorded four consecutive seasons with 100 receptions, tied for the second-longest streak in NFL history.
Trevor Lawrence is one of four QBs over the last two seasons to have over 8,000 passing yards and 55 combined passing and rushing TDs, joining Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Jared Goff.
Will Levis completed only 54% of his passes thrown beyond the line of scrimmage last season, the lowest percentage in the league.

Staff bets

C.J. Stroud to win MVP (+850)

This line has been on the move because Stroud is one of the most bet on players in this market at ESPN BET. Stroud is coming off an impressive rookie campaign where he posted 4,108 passing yards, 23 touchdown passes and just five interceptions to capture Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. He now has an even better offensive line in front of him and another star receiver to target after the Texans acquired Stefon Diggs during the offseason. If Stroud can take the Texans to the playoffs and put up gaudy numbers once again, he is primed to win this award. — Erin Dolan

AFC South betting preview – Texans favored to defend division title