Juan Soto contract projections and predictions during free agency

With the 2024 season behind us and the Hot Stove ready to burn, we’re taking a close look at some of the most prominent players eligible for free agency.

Name: Juan Soto
Position: Outfielder
Team: New York Yankees
Age (as of Opening Day 2025): 26
2024 stats: .288/.419/.569, 41 HR, 109 RBIs, 128 R, 178 OPS+

Let the Juan Soto sweepstakes begin.

From the moment Soto turned down the Nationals’ 15-year, $440 million contract back in mid-2022, it was crystal clear that the All-Star slugger would test free agency at the end of the 2024 season.

Two trades and two teams later, that time has finally arrived.

Following a superb season in the Bronx during which he helped the Yankees reach the World Series for the first time in 15 years, Soto is now the hottest free agent in the game, putting himself in position to challenge Shohei Ohtani’s records for total guaranteed dollars and average annual value in a baseball contract.

This is not to say he will get a deal north of the 10-year, $700 million pact that Ohtani signed with the Dodgers last winter, but given that $680 million of that deal was deferred until 2034, the present-day value of that contract was a little more than $460 million, giving Ohtani an AAV of roughly $46 million.

Given that Soto already turned down $440 million and is still in the midst of his prime, many inside the industry expect him to sign a deal worth more than $50 million per season for at least 10 years.

Will the Yankees do what it takes to keep Soto in pinstripes? Which clubs will be the biggest threats to pry him away from the Bronx? Let’s take a look at the most intriguing free agent of the 2024-25 offseason:

Soto’s one year in the Bronx was a smashing success, as he posted MVP-type numbers, forming an incredible 1-2 punch with Aaron Judge that led the Yankees to the AL East title and a run to the World Series. Soto and the Yankees appear to be a perfect fit, as few stars have taken to the bright lights of New York as seamlessly as Soto did in 2024. The Yankees’ payroll was north of $300 million this season, but they have more than $80 million coming off the books this offseason. Will the Yankees be willing to pay Soto $50 million or more per season when they’re already spending $40 million a year on Judge? Based on this season, they may have to.

Soto seemed to enjoy his first year in New York, and while the Yankees are viewed as frontrunners to retain him, there’s a team across town that will likely try to bring him back to the National League East. Owner Steve Cohen has the financial wherewithal to pay Soto whatever he wants, and if president of baseball operations David Stearns decides that Soto is the missing piece for a club that reached the NLCS, the Mets could prove to be the biggest threat to Soto’s return to the Yankees.

If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em. Soto got a first-hand look at how good the Dodgers are during the World Series, but how much scarier would Los Angeles become with Soto joining Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman atop the lineup? The Dodgers have more than $50 million coming off the books this winter, and while it might seem like overkill to sign Soto, it’s not wise to rule out the Dodgers as an option when any star hits the market, especially given the $68 million annual deferral in Ohtani’s contract.

At first glance, this one feels like a sentimental possibility, as Soto played his first four and a half years in the Majors with Washington, helping lead the Nationals to the 2019 World Series title. Top prospects James Wood and Dylan Crews graduated to the Majors in 2024, while Jacob Young had a stellar defensive season in center field (20 outs above average). Soto would add a dynamic bat to the lineup that has been missing ever since he was traded in 2022, and the Nationals could shift Crews to center field and use Young as a fourth outfielder. The real question is whether Washington is ready to spend the money it will take to bring Soto back home.

San Francisco has tried to swim in the deep end of free agency for the past few years, taking big shots at players such as Judge, Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto only to see them sign elsewhere. New president of baseball operations Buster Posey could look to make a big splash by adding a superstar such as Soto, who has actually hit well at Oracle Park, belting seven homers with a 1.050 OPS in 22 career games in the pitcher-friendly ballpark.

Philadelphia has plenty of friendly faces to make its pitch to Soto, who played in Washington with Bryce Harper, Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber and has a strong relationship with hitting coach Kevin Long. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has never been afraid to make a big move, and if ownership green-lights the type of money it will take to sign Soto, the Phillies could prove to be a player in these sweepstakes.

Toronto took a big swing at Ohtani last winter, so we know the Blue Jays are willing to spend big for big talent. With Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette heading into their free-agent seasons, signing Soto would give the Jays one season with all three stars under contract, opening a brief-but-exciting opportunity. It’s difficult to imagine Soto staying in the AL East and not being with the Yankees, but a move to Toronto would certainly spice up this division rivalry.

“Soto is undeniably a perennial talent. Despite having a below-average to poor fielding run value, his offensive prowess more than makes up for what his defense lacks. He slashed .288/.419/.569 in the regular season with 41 home runs and a 178 wRC+, and he just participated in his second World Series at just 26 years old. His age and power at the plate alone will garner him a contract worth at least $500 million, likely the second-highest-paid player behind Ohtani. Soto is interesting because he is expected to have a high asking price, but his below-average defense will likely only weaken over time, causing him to become a full-time DH, especially in the later years of his contract. However, being an excellent contact hitter who can drive in runs for his team – combined with his age – his presumed half-billion-dollar asking price is justifiable for a team that intends to compete with him in the middle of the lineup.”

Soto’s offensive profile is as good as any hitter in the game; his Baseball Savant page looks like a valedictorian’s report card, with rankings in the 98th-to-100th percentile in eight different categories. When it comes to defense and baserunning, the same can’t be said, however. Soto posted -5 outs above average in 2024 (14th percentile), giving him a -28 mark for his career. His baserunning is also below-average, though his proficiency at the plate shouldn’t make either of these areas a huge concern for clubs pursuing this generational talent.

It’s difficult to find a strong comp for Soto, as his age and accomplishments put him in rarified air. As a two-way player entering his age-29 season, Ohtani offered a package the likes of which we had never seen: a superstar both at the plate and on the mound with a following as large as any player in the game. Two years ago, Judge landed a nine-year, $360 million deal following a 62-home run season that saw him win the AL MVP award, but Judge was entering his age-31 season when he reached free agency. Soto just turned 26 last week, an age when many players are just entering the arbitration process, though there are some recent comps: In 2019, both Manny Machado and Bryce Harper were entering their age-26 seasons when they signed for $300 million (10 years) and $325 million (13 years), respectively, but that was six years ago. The general consensus is that 10 years and $500 million will be the floor for Soto’s deal, though a bidding war between big-market teams could push that to $600 million or beyond.