Tottenham vs Aston Villa Prediction

We look ahead to Sunday’s Premier League game at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium with our Tottenham vs Aston Villa prediction and preview. It promises to be an enthralling clash.

Tottenham vs Aston Villa Stats: The Key Insights

• The Opta supercomputer makes Tottenham the favourites, with a 47.2% win likelihood.
• That’s despite Spurs having lost three of their last four league meetings with Aston Villa.
• However, they did win 4-0 in their last such fixture against Villa in March.

Two defeats in the space of three Premier League matches for Spurs have left them in eighth, five points off the top four heading into the weekend. However, they come into Sunday’s meeting with Villa having defeated Manchester City 2-1 in the EFL Cup.

Villa, who top the UEFA Champions League standings with three wins from as many matches in that competition, occupy fourth spot in the top flight as it stands and their only defeat in the league this term came back in August against Arsenal.

And though Opta’s model forecasts a Spurs win, it should be noted that Unai Emery’s team have won nine of their 13 away Premier League games in London under the Spaniard (D3 L1). That 69% win ratio is the best by a manager at a single club in away games in London in Premier League history (min. 10 games).

Only Liverpool (13) and Nottingham Forest (11) have claimed more away Premier League points this season than Villa (10 – W3 D1). Villa have only won as many as four of their opening five away league games in a season once before, doing so in 2020-21 (W4 L1).

Tottenham, on the other hand, have conceded the first goal in 11 of their 13 home Premier League matches in 2024.

However, they have come back to win seven of those games. The only team with more home wins when conceding first in a single year are Newcastle United in 2002 (eight).

That includes Spurs coming back from 1-0 down to beat West Ham 4-1 in their last league home match.

Tottenham have, though, lost nine of their last 16 Premier League games (W6 D1), with only Wolves (12) losing more since the first game in this run in April. Spurs had only lost seven of their first 31 games under Ange Postecoglou (W18 D6).

Only two of Tottenham’s last 71 home Premier League games, meanwhile, have ended as a draw (W47 L22) and they are the only side without a home draw since the start of last season (W16 L7). So, anticipate there to be a winner in this one.

You should expect some goals, though. Spurs have scored 49 times in 23 home Premier League games under Postecoglou. The only manager to hit 50 goals in 24 or fewer home games with Spurs is Antonio Conte (50 in first 20). Between them, these teams have already netted 34 goals in the league in 2024-25.

Having Son Heung-min back from injury could prove crucial for Spurs’ hopes. Son has been involved in nine goals in eight Premier League games against Villa (six goals, three assists), though all six of his goals against them have come at Villa Park. No player has scored more against an opponent without netting a home goal in the competition.

Villa, meanwhile, have been able to call on their bench options to great effect this season. Jhon Durán has been clinical as a substitute, and Ross Barkley came on to score in last week’s draw with Bournemouth.

In 2024, Villa have scored the most Premier League goals from subs (10) and have the most goals and assists combined from subs (10 goals, seven assists). It is the joint most sub goals they have scored in a single year, also netting 10 in 2023.

Tottenham vs Aston Villa Head-to-Head

Villa have won three of their last four Premier League away games against Tottenham (L1), including the last two in a row under Emery.

They last won three consecutive away league games against Spurs between 1922 and 1924.

Tottenham have lost three of their last four Premier League meetings with Villa overall, too, though did win the last such match 4-0 in March, with James Maddison, Brennan Johnson, Son and Timo Werner on target during a blistering second-half showing at Villa Park.

Spurs had only lost two of their previous 21 against the Villans (W16 D3).

Tottenham vs Aston Villa Prediction

Despite their recent form against Villa, Tottenham are backed by Opta’s supercomputer, with their chances of victory coming in at 47.2%.

Villa won in 29.6% of the model’s simulations, while the probability of a draw is 23.2%.

Tottenham vs Aston Villa Predicted Lineups

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

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