Falcons vs Cowboys: What’s Wrong With Dallas?

The Dallas Cowboys won a total of 36 games from 2021-23, the most in the NFC and trailing the Kansas City Chiefs by just one win for the NFL lead.

Going exactly 12-5 in each of those three NFL seasons, the Cowboys won two NFC East titles. Sure, those campaigns each ended with heartbreaking playoff losses to rivals, but Dallas has been the model of regular-season consistency in recent years.

This season, however, the Cowboys are off to a 3-4 start and are in desperate need of a turnaround after dropping consecutive games.

Entering Week 6 at 3-2, Dallas had an opportunity to make a statement when hosting the NFC-favorite Detroit Lions. Instead, the Cowboys were sent home from JerryWorld with their tails between their legs after a 47-9 drubbing.

After regrouping over the bye week, Dallas visited the San Francisco 49ers. The Cowboys were down 27-10 after three quarters before scoring twice in the final 8 minutes to “only” lose 30-24.

With 11 teams (including the arguably less-talented Seattle Seahawks, Washington Commanders, Arizona Cardinals and Tampa Bay Buccaneers) ahead of Dallas in the NFC playoff picture and only the New York Giants below them in the NFC East standings, the urgency to turn this season around grows with each passing week.

As of now, our model gives the Cowboys 8.2 projected wins and 8.8 projected losses with only a 20.7% chance of making the playoffs.

And the schedule doesn’t get any easier, with the team’s matchup with Kirk Cousins, Bijan Robinson and the 5-3 Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium this week being one of the most winnable game of the next four (vs. Philadelphia Eagles, vs. Houston Texans, at Commanders).

After their recent struggles, the Cowboys enter Sunday’s game in Atlanta as 3.0-point underdogs. Our model also favors the NFC South leaders, giving the hosts a 62.5% chance (as of Friday) in its Cowboys vs. Falcons pick and potentially sending Dallas into panic mode.

With the season on the brink of slipping away, it’s fair to ask: What is wrong with the Cowboys, and can it be fixed?

The Quarter-Billion-Dollar Question

Dak Prescott has been among the league’s most divisive quarterbacks during his time with the Cowboys. He’s a three-time Pro Bowl selection and has had some impressive statistical seasons but carries the reputation as a shrinking performer in the playoffs.

Prescott has often been characterized as “very good, but not great,” which can feel like failure with all the pressure that comes from being the face of “America’s Team.”

Last season was possibly the best of Prescott’s career, as he set a career high with a 105.9 passer rating while throwing for 4,516 passing yards, 36 touchdowns and nine interceptions. And mere hours before the start of the 2024 campaign, he signed a four-year, $240 million extension.

The 31-year-old quarterback has followed that up with an uneven start – terrible timing for an extended slump. Prescott has already thrown eight picks in seven games and his completion percentage has dropped from 69.5 last season to 63.7 in 2024. His yards per attempt and touchdown rate have also fallen, leading to a drop of over 20 points in passer rating.

The advanced numbers aren’t much better.

Prescott has an expected completion rate of 64.7% this season, ranking 38th out of 41 quarterbacks with at least 50 pass attempts and behind names like Aidan O’Connell, Bryce Young and Deshaun Watson.

Even on plays when throwing without pressure, Prescott’s expected completion rate is 67.2%, which is 10 points below average among qualified quarterbacks. Dallas fans will be hopeful that Prescott can right the ship against a porous Atlanta secondary that is allowing the fourth most yards per pass (8.1) on first downs.

But Prescott’s struggles have not come in a vacuum, and the offense has taken a major step backward as a whole this season. CeeDee Lamb signed a four-year, $136 million extension in August, and while his raw stats have been good, they’re not as good as last season.

In 2023, Lamb made 135 catches for 1,749 yards and added 14 total touchdowns. The star wideout is still on track for a third-straight 100-reception season, but Dallas is relying on him to be an elite difference-maker.

Lamb has a burn rate of 50.8%, well below the league average of 58.6% among qualified wide receivers. His 2.6 burn yards per route are slightly above average (2.2), but his 9.74 burn yards per target rank in the bottom half among receivers with at least 100 routes run.

Even more concerning for the Cowboys is that Lamb is still their best receiver by far, even in a down year for him. The result has been Prescott struggling to find open receivers with defenses able to shade coverage toward Lamb.

Just 67.8% of Dallas’ adjusted pass attempts (no spikes or throwaways) have been directed toward an open receiver, the lowest rate in the league. A hyper-aggressive scheme could explain such a number, but the Cowboys’ average depth of target (7.5 yards) is below than league average (7.9).

With receivers unable to create separation and Prescott not playing up to his usual standards, the passing offense has been pedestrian at best. It goes without saying that Prescott needs to protect the ball better if Dallas hopes to turn this season around, but his receivers will also need to be better down the stretch for an offense that has become shockingly one-dimensional.

Find a Running Game

While the air attack has been surprisingly inefficient, their rushing attack has fallen off a cliff.

Rico Dowdle is averaging 4.17 yards per carry but has yet to be tested as a feature back, while Ezekiel Elliott has shown that the mileage has caught up with him and can only be relied upon as a short-yardage option.

Desperate for a spark on the ground, Dallas elevated veteran Dalvin Cook for last week’s game against the 49ers. He responded with six carries for 12 yards.

With a combination of unproven youngsters and 2019 fantasy studs, the backfield has lacked punch this season, and the lack of balance has affected Prescott as well. Less than 5.0% of Dallas’ pass attempts have come on play-action concepts.

Elliott’s short-yardage prowess has boosted the team’s success rate on run plays, clocking in just below average at 35.9%. Dallas has converted 91.7% of its 3rd- and 4th-and-1 opportunities, tied for the best in the league.

Outside of short-yardage scrums, the Cowboys have the worst rushing attack in football. Only 33.3% of their first down rushes gain at least 4 yards, the worst rate in the league, and Dallas ball carriers rank 31st with just 1.9 yards per carry before contact.

The Cowboys are the only team without a 20-yard rush this season. Their longest was a 13-yard carry by Dowdle, who missed last week’s loss to San Francisco due to an illness but is expected back against the Falcons on Sunday. While the undrafted South Carolina product has been less than impressive, he remains the Cowboys’ best hope at keeping some kind of balance.

Game script has also made it hard for Mike McCarthy and company to remain balanced, with the Cowboys have to get up after falling behind in each of the last two games.

Improve in the Red Zone

Among the ugliest statistics for this year’s Cowboys team have come in the red zone, where the offense has a 27.7% success rate that ranks 31st in the NFL.

A league-high five red-zone giveaways have made the problem more glaring, but even when avoiding disaster Dallas needs to find ways to score touchdowns instead of field goals.

The Cowboys have found the end zone on just 42.1% of their red-zone drives (31st in the NFL), while Prescott has a passer rating of just 62.3 inside opponents’ 20. Atlanta’s defense is allowing a 42.9% overall success rate in the red zone, so this could be the week to reverse those trends.

The problems in Dallas are almost too numerous to list, and the number of defensive impact players (like Micah Parsons) on the injury report each week have made things more difficult. But if the Cowboys have any hope in salvaging a playoff appearance after a rough start, their $240 million man has to play well enough to carry an imperfect roster.

Dallas is looking at you, Dak.

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