Arsenal vs Liverpool Prediction | Opta Analyst

We look ahead to Sunday’s Premier League game at the Emirates Stadium with our Arsenal vs Liverpool prediction and preview. Can Arne Slot’s side make a statement against a title challenger?

Arsenal vs Liverpool Stats: The Key Insights

• The Opta supercomputer favours Arsenal to come out on top in this clash, with the hosts triumphant in 41.3% of our pre-match simulations.
• The Gunners could struggle without the suspended William Saliba, however, with their win rate just 45.5% without him.
• Liverpool are looking to make their second-best-ever start to a Premier League season after nine games.

Two of the top three are set to meet in the final game of the Premier League weekend, as Arsenal welcome Liverpool to the Emirates Stadium on Sunday.

The Gunners find themselves slightly adrift of the leaders heading into the weekend, sitting four points behind the early pacesetters after a shock 2-0 defeat to Bournemouth last time out. That defeat meant Arsenal failed to hit the landmark of 2,000 top-flight league wins, something they could achieve this weekend with victory.

They bounced back with a slightly unconvincing 1-0 win over Shakhtar Donetsk in the UEFA Champions League on Tuesday but are facing the prospect of losing back-to-back Premier League games for the first time since December 2023.

In fact, it was just the second league defeat inflicted upon Mikel Arteta’s side in 2024; prior to their trip to Bournemouth, Arsenal had lost just one of their first 25 matches in the competition this calendar year (21 wins, 3 draws).

After receiving a third red card of the season against the Cherries – a league-high at this stage – Arsenal have also been dealt more injury blows, with Riccardo Calafiori limping off in midweek to go with Bukayo Saka’s potential absence.

But it could be William Saliba’s suspension that is felt most keenly. The French defender had played every single minute in the Premier League since the start of last season before his red card at the Vitality Stadium. He has missed just 11 league matches since his debut in 2022, with Arsenal boasting a 74%-win rate with him in the side compared to just 45.5% without him.

It is a welcome boost for Liverpool, who are looking to continue their strong start to the campaign that has seen them lose just one of their opening 12 games in all competitions.

Arne Slot is the first manager to win as many as 11 of his first 12 games in charge across all competitions in English top-flight history, and their away form in particular has been stellar – they are just the seventh top-flight side to win each of their opening six away games across all competitions in a season, following their 1-0 victory over RB Leipzig on Wednesday.

Slot passed what was seen as his first ‘real’ Premier League test against Chelsea last weekend with a 2-1 win at Anfield, and if Liverpool win this game, it will be their second-best-ever start to a campaign in the competition after nine games (24 points – currently on 21).

And while the Dutchman has got his forward players working in tandem, it is their defensive play that has proven the most impressive, possessing the best record in the top-flight.

They have conceded fewer goals than any other team in the Premier League this season (3), while they also have the lowest xG against total (6.2).

And that should come in handy as they try to nullify Arsenal’s attacking threat. Saka may be missing, but Gabriel Martinelli has been involved in more goals against Liverpool in all competitions than against any other side (7 – 5 goals, 2 assists).

And Kai Havertz has netted in each of his last five Premier League appearances at the Emirates, with only Thierry Henry ever scoring in more successive home appearances in the competition, doing so twice.

In terms of team news, as mentioned, Arsenal will be missing Saliba, while Arteta said at a press conference on Friday regarding Jurriën Timber, Calafiori and Saka: “We’re going to do our very best to somehow have them available. It’s very uncertain.” Martin Ødegaard is also unlikely to return from his ankle injury just yet.

Liverpool will also be missing some key players, though, with Alisson sidelined for the next few weeks, while Diogo Jota remains out after suffering bruising to his torso against Chelsea last weekend. Harvey Elliott is still unavailable, while Slot suggested on Friday that Federico Chiesa and Conor Bradley could be back in training soon but are unlikely to make it back in time for Sunday.

Arsenal vs Liverpool Head-to-Head

Despite facing the league leaders, Arsenal should feel fairly confident, having won their last two Premier League home games against Liverpool, last having a longer such run between 2004 and 2006 (four consecutive wins).

In fact, the Gunners are unbeaten in their last four Premier League games against Liverpool (2 wins, 2 draws), taking more points from these four games (8) than they had in their previous 14 against the Reds (7 – 1 win, 4 draws, 9 defeats).

They won this fixture 3-1 last season thanks to goals from Saka, Martinelli and Leandro Trossard.

Liverpool’s last win against Arsenal in the top-flight did come at the Emirates, with a 2-0 victory in March 2022., though they did also win by the same score in north London in the FA Cup third round last season.

And the Reds have not failed to score in any of their last 17 Premier League meetings with Arsenal since a 0-0 draw in August 2015.

Arsenal vs Liverpool Prediction

Arsenal are considered the favourites for this tie, coming out on top in 41.3% of the pre-match simulations. Slot’s men have a 32.2% chance of victory, while 26.5% of sims ended in the points being shared.

Despite occupying top spot, Liverpool are given just a 14.9% chance of holding onto that by the end of the season, with second considered their most likely finishing spot, while Arsenal, who are projected to finish third (45.8%), are given an 8% chance of getting their hands on the Premier League trophy.

Arsenal vs Liverpool Predicted Lineups

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

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