Real Madrid vs Barcelona Prediction

We look ahead to Saturday’s huge La Liga fixture at the Santiago Bernabéu with our Real Madrid vs Barcelona prediction and preview. Who will come out on top in the season’s first Clásico?

Real Madrid vs Barcelona Stats: The Key Insights

• Real Madrid are the Opta supercomputer’s favourites for victory ahead of El Clásico, beating Barcelona (31%) in 45.6% of pre-match simulations.
• Real Madrid could equal the longest unbeaten run in La Liga history (43 matches), set by Ernesto Valverde’s Barcelona between 2017 and 2018.
• Vinícius Júnior has been involved in seven goals in his last four games in El Clásico in all competitions, scoring five goals and laying on two assists.

With a four-point gap already developing between the top two and their nearest challengers, Barcelona and Real Madrid look likely to go head-to-head to rule La Liga once again this season.

And after the two sides lit up the UEFA Champions League in midweek – Madrid recovering to beat Borussia Dortmund 5-2 while Barcelona trounced Bayern Munich 4-1 – this is surely the must-watch fixture in the European calendar this week.

While Hansi Flick’s Blaugrana currently lead the way with nine wins from his first 10 league games at the helm, Madrid boast one of two unbeaten records remaining in the division, alongside neighbours Atlético.

Carlo Ancelotti’s reigning Spanish and European champions have an opportunity not only to knock Barça off the top, but to earn a slice of history.

They are one game away from matching the longest unbeaten run in the history of La Liga, recorded by Ernesto Valverde’s Barcelona between April 2017 and May 2018.

Incredibly, Madrid have not been beaten in league action since 25 September 2023, when they went down 3-1 to rivals Atlético. Their unbeaten run in La Liga now stands at 42 matches, with 31 wins and 11 draws in that span.

Saturday’s game offers them the chance to draw level with the mark brought up by Valverde’s Barça (34 wins, 9 draws), and with bottom club Valencia their next opponents after this match, they have a golden opportunity to earn that record outright.

They fought back from 2-0 down to beat Dortmund 5-2 in a thrilling Champions League clash on Tuesday, with Ballon d’Or frontrunner Vinícius Júnior scoring a stunning second-half hat-trick, taking him to 35 goal involvements (20 goals, 15 assists) in his last 35 Champions League starts.

He also has a fine record against Barça, having been involved in seven goals in his last four games in El Clásico in all competitions, scoring five goals and laying on two assists. In total, the Real Madrid forward has scored seven goals in 17 games against Barcelona; his second-best goalscoring record against any opponent after Valencia (8 goals).

With the Brazilian linking up with Jude Bellingham and Kylian Mbappé, Madrid have the firepower to halt Barça’s brilliant start to life under Flick, and seal their own place in the record books in the process.

Flick, meanwhile, could hardly have wished for a better start to his tenure at Barcelona, with a 4-2 defeat at Osasuna last month the only blot on his record in La Liga.

Last week’s 5-0 rout of Sevilla took the Blaugrana to 33 goals in 10 league games under Flick – only Real Madrid icon Zinedine Zidane has enjoyed a more prolific start through 10 games as a manager in La Liga this century (34).

Three of the nine players in the big five European Leagues to be involved in 10 or more goals this season, meanwhile, represent Barcelona – Robert Lewandowski (12 goals, 2 assists), Lamine Yamal (4 goals, 6 assists) and Raphinha (5 goals, 5 assists).

Only three players from those five leagues have at least five goals and five assists this term – Mohamed Salah (5 goals, 5 assists with Liverpool), Cole Palmer (6 goals, 5 assists with Chelsea) and Raphinha.

Flick got one over on his former club Bayern in style on Wednesday, with Raphinha’s hat-trick helping them end a run of six straight Champions League meetings with the Bundesliga giants.

And as if that result was not enough of a statement, Barcelona achieved it with a starting XI with an average age of just 24 years and 185 days, their youngest lineup for a Champions League match since December 2011 versus BATE Borisov (23 years, 93 days).

A trip to the Bernabéu, however, will surely represent Flick’s toughest test to date.

Each of the last five Barcelona coaches – Xavi, Ronald Koeman, Quique Setién, Valverde and Luis Enrique – have lost their first competitive Clásico, with Gerardo Martino the last to oversee a victory on his first taste of the fixture (2-1 in 2013). If Flick can buck that trend, it will be advantage Barça in the title race.

If the Blaugrana are to emerge victorious, expect Yamal to play a central role. The Euro 2024 winner already has six assists in La Liga this season, becoming the first Barça player to reach that figure within the opening 10 matchdays since Lionel Messi in 2014-15 (seven).

However, Barça still have a number of players sidelined due to injury, including Marc-André ter Stegen, Andreas Christensen, Ferran Torres and Ronald Araujo.

Real Madrid vs Barcelona Head-to-Head

Madrid have an excellent record versus Barcelona lately, winning each of their last four matches against them in all competitions. They could now record five straight victories in El Clásico fixtures for just the second time in the last 59 years, having done so between 2020 and 2022.

Ancelotti, meanwhile, could become only the third coach to win five or more successive Clásicos in the history of the fixture, after Miguel Muñoz between 1962 and 1965 (seven) and Pep Guardiola between 2008 and 2010 (five).

Bellingham struck dramatic winners in both league fixtures between these great rivals last season – a 2-1 triumph in Catalonia last October and a 3-2 victory in Madrid in April.

On their own turf, Madrid have won four of their last five meetings with Barça (one defeat), winning each of their last two. They have not won three straight home Clásicos in the competition since they enjoyed a run of four consecutive wins between 1988 and 1991, a period in which they won La Liga three times in four campaigns.

Real Madrid vs Barcelona Prediction

Despite Barcelona making a flying start to Flick’s reign, it is Real Madrid who are made favourites by the Opta supercomputer on home soil.

Ancelotti’s team were victorious in 45.6% of the 10,000 match simulations conducted by the supercomputer, with Barca winning 31.0%, and 23.4% finishing all square.

Despite Barça’s flying start, meanwhile, they are still given just a 30.1% chance of lifting the title in our La Liga season predictions, with Real Madrid assigned a 68.6% probability.

Real Madrid vs Barcelona Predicted Lineups

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

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