Weekend Woes: How Much Did Arsenal’s Defeat Hurt Their Title Chances According to the Opta Supercomputer?

After Arsenal lost and both Manchester City and Liverpool won on Matchday 8, we assess how each team’s Premier League title chances has swung in our rest-of-season predictions.

It was not a good weekend for Arsenal. They headed into Matchday 8 as one of the two remaining unbeaten teams in the Premier League, alongside title rivals Manchester City, and just one point off the top of the league. Yet they emerged from it with that unbeaten record in tatters, and the gap opened up to four points.

On Saturday, Mikel Arteta’s men suffered their first away defeat of 2024, going down 2-0 against Bournemouth. It was a game that was flipped on its head after half an hour, with William Saliba (eventually) shown a straight red card for his last-man foul on Evanilson as the Bournemouth striker tried to latch onto Leandro Trossard’s errant backpass.

It’s the third red card Arsenal have suffered this season, and they’ve picked up just two points from nine in those encounters. In fact, since Arteta’s first game in charge for the club, Arsenal players have been shown 18 red cards, at least five more than any other team in the league.

Their misery was compounded on Sunday as both their title rivals won narrowly. First up were Man City, who looked on course to drop points against Wolves. They conceded the first goal of the game for the fifth time in seven Premier League matches, yet rallied through goals from Josko Gvardiol and a last-minute John Stones winner. That Stones scored the winner, having equalised with the last kick of the game against Arsenal last month, would have been an extra sickener for Gunners fans.

Liverpool then maintained their fantastic start under Arne Slot, overcoming Chelsea 2-1 at Anfield. Goals from Mohamed Salah and Curtis Jones, either side of Nicolas Jackson’s leveller were enough to give the Reds all three points and send them back to the summit.

Liverpool and Arsenal know all too well the exacting standards that Manchester City demand of their fellow title rivals; any slip up, no matter how early, can be costly.

And the Opta supercomputer knows that as well. Here’s how it believes each team’s chances of winning the title have swung after the weekend’s results.

Arsenal’s defeat and Man City and Liverpool’s subsequent victories have seen the Gunners’ chances of winning the title drop by 8.3%, down from 19.6% to 11.3%. Liverpool are now second favourites, with their likelihood of winning the title up to 13.0%.

The 2024-25 season is still very much City’s to lose though. Not only are Pep Guardiola’s team the overwhelming favourites of the three (75.5%) but the weekend’s results saw them increase their title-winning chances by 6.1%.

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