Guardians-Yankees ALCS position-by-position breakdown

Yankees-Red Sox is the classic rivalry. But the real ones know that New York has actually played more postseason games against Cleveland (by a 27-24 count).

The American League Championship Series that begins Monday night in the Bronx is the extension of a long-running postseason pairing in the Wild Card era. These two clubs previously met in the 1997 AL Division Series (won by the Indians), the ‘98 ALCS (won by the Yanks), the 2007 ALDS (Indians, again), ‘17 ALDS (Yankees, again), the ‘20 Wild Card Series (Yanks) and the 2022 ALDS (Yanks).

So we’ve seen how these two franchises match up historically. But how do they match up right now? Let’s take a look, position by position.

Yankees rookie Austin Wells not only ranked fourth with a +13 Fielding Run Value among catchers with at least 500 innings caught and had a solid .718 OPS and 103 OPS+ (3 percent better than league average), but he also has an elite catcher mustache, which has to count for something. He should figure prominently in the AL Rookie of the Year voting.

Guardians second-year backstop Bo Naylor has been slower to adapt to big league pitching. He’s grown on the defensive side but had just a .201/.264/.350 slash this season. Both of these catchers have struggled at the plate in the postseason, but Wells has had more impact this year.

With Anthony Rizzo out of the picture for the ALDS after fracturing two fingers in his right hand, the Yankees put 34-year-old Jon Berti at first for the first time in his career and also used utilityman Oswaldo Cabrera at the position. Rizzo has not resumed baseball activities, so he doesn’t seem likely to reappear for this series.

The Guardians counter with a first-time All-Star in Josh Naylor, who set new career highs with 31 homers and 108 RBIs this year. He can succumb to chase tendencies that put him in prolonged funks, but he can also get as hot as anyone at any time.

A pending free agent, Gleyber Torres seemed to be pressing a good portion of the year for the Yankees and was twice benched for underperformance and lack of hustle. But he had a stellar September (333/.387/.472 slash in 25 games) that has rolled into a postseason in which he’s gotten on base at a .400 clip from the leadoff spot.

For the Guards, Andrés Giménez was an All-Star in 2022 (141 OPS+) but regressed offensively in 2023 (96 OPS+) and took another step back in 2024 (82 OPS+). He will likely win his third straight Gold Glove, and the defensive difference is not to be ignored here. But Torres is the bigger threat at the plate right now.

Neither club has gotten the offense it hoped for out of this position.

Anthony Volpe had appeared to be the Yankees’ next star, and he’s come a long way defensively (ranking sixth with 13 outs above average at short this season). But he had a .657 OPS and an 86 OPS+ in 2024. Guardians rookie Brayan Rocchio is also a good defender, but his regular season featured even lesser numbers — a .614 OPS and a 76 OPS+. Rocchio surprisingly had six hits in the ALDS, and that might be a reason to give him the edge here. But we generally lean on the larger samples, and Volpe graded out better in both the offensive and defensive equations this year.

A midseason trade from the Marlins has been good for both Jazz Chisholm Jr. and the Yankees. Inspired by the move, Chisholm has played more like the star Miami had hoped he would become. He had an .825 OPS, 11 homers and 18 steals in only 46 regular-season games with New York, and he homered and swiped a bag in the ALDS.

But he’s not José Ramírez, because there’s only one José Ramírez. The Guardians’ superstar fell just one homer shy of a 40-40 season, and he had his hardest-hit dinger of the year during the ALDS. The Tigers took the bat out of his hands three times with intentional walks in the five-game series, and it would not be a surprise to see the Yankees try to do the same.

The Guardians have an All-Star in left in Steven Kwan, who is a terrific defender and contact hitter who stepped up his power game this year (.292/.368/.425 slash with a career-high 14 homers). Kwan went into a slide and battled a back issue in the second half, but he had 11 hits and two walks in the ALDS, so he is back to being an impact table-setter.

The Yankees, on the other hand, are just trying to piece it together here. Despite Alex Verdugo’s struggles this season and the possible offensive upside presented by Jasson Domínguez, New York has stuck with the more known commodity in left and was rewarded when Verdugo had the go-ahead RBI in Game 1 of the ALDS.

Guardians trade acquisition Lane Thomas hit just .143 in August for his new club and was instantly villainized. But after a strong September and two huge homers in the ALDS — including the game-changing Game 5 grand slam that essentially sent the Guards to this ALCS — he’s emerged as a Cleveland hero worthy of having a street named after him (Thomas Lane?).

Were we to get cute, we could put all the weight on postseason performance and take Thomas over Aaron Judge, but … we’re not that cute. Judge might be hitting .154 with zero homers this October, but we’ll still take the guy who had 58 home runs, 144 RBIs, a 1.159 OPS and an 11.2 fWAR in the regular season, thank you.

For the Guards, you can expect to see Will Brennan get the starts here against right-handers and Jhonkensy “Big Christmas” Noel against the lefty Carlos Rodón.

It’s been a bit simpler for Yankees manager Aaron Boone. Just pencil in Juan Soto’s name and watch him smack 41 dingers with a .419 OBP and .569 SLG. He’s remained an impact presence in October and has done nothing to diminish that gargantuan payday coming his way this winter.

A litany of issues with his lower half have left Giancarlo Stanton a shell of his former MVP self. But the man can still bash a baseball and rise to the occasion in October, as we saw when he doubled, hit the go-ahead homer and even stole a base in Game 3 of the ALDS. In his postseason career, Stanton has gone deep at a rate (one per 9.33 at-bats) not terribly far off from that of Babe Ruth (8.60).

The Guardians will continue to lean on rookie Kyle Manzardo against righties and David Fry against lefties. Given Fry’s unexpected All-Star status and ALDS hero role, you could go with Cleveland here, but his opportunities may be more limited against a righty heavy New York staff.

While Gerrit Cole has not pitched like the next-level ace we’re accustomed to seeing, he can dominate any given night, as we saw in the Yanks’ Game 4 clincher in the ALDS. Clarke Schmidt had a breakthrough year (145 ERA+ in 16 starts) and was solid in his ALDS outing. The question is what the Yankees get from Carlos Rodón, who has mostly been a disappointment in pinstripes, and Luis Gil, whose high walk rate caught up with him in the second half after an astounding start to the season. Nestor Cortes, who is rehabbing a left elbow injury, might be an option in this round.

Thanks to an early-season right elbow injury for Shane Bieber, the struggles of Triston McKenzie and other developments, the Guardians’ rotation is not the team strength it was when these clubs last met in the playoffs. Cleveland will continue to rely heavily on young Tanner Bibee and midseason veteran acquisitions Matthew Boyd and Alex Cobb, but the hooks figure to be quick.

The Yankees have had some success remodeling their bullpen on the fly this season, with Luke Weaver seizing the closing role. Their relief crew tossed 15 2/3 scoreless innings against the Royals in the ALDS.

But the Guards had simply the best bullpen in MLB this season, anchored by the great Emmanuel Clase and young setup men Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis and Tim Herrin. Cleveland’s 2.57 relief ERA was the fourth-best of the Wild Card era (since 1995). It showed some vulnerability in the ALDS, but there’s no mystery which of these clubs feels better about its bullpen.

The Yankees boasted an AL-best 94 wins this year and they were the only AL team with a positive run differential that reached triple digits (plus-147). They have the home-field advantage and are hungry to end an organizational pennant drought that stretches an uncharacteristic 15 years. They also earned some extra rest by taking care of business relatively quickly against the Royals. So they are the obvious favorite here.

Still, the Guardians’ bullpen has the capability to swing this series. Had that ‘pen not expended so much energy in the ALDS, I would go so far as to pick the Guards, given how bullpen-oriented October has become and the fact that New York did prove pitchable in a lot of run-scoring opportunities against Kansas City. But with the heavy workload taken on by the Cleveland ‘pen this season and thus far this October, I’m going chalk with this one.