Can Jannik Sinner stop Novak Djokovic’s pursuit of history in Shanghai final? | ATP Tour

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Can Sinner stop Djokovic’s pursuit of historic 100th title in Shanghai final?

Pair’s first Lexus ATP Head2Head meeting since Australian Open

October 12, 2024

For years, Novak Djokovic has spoken about how important making tennis history is to him. From chasing the record for major singles titles to weeks at No. 1 in the PIF ATP Rankings and most recently an Olympic singles gold medal, the Serbian has reached every goal he has pursued.

On Sunday, the 37-year-old has an opportunity to check another major milestone off his list. Djokovic will try to claim his 100th tour-level title when he plays World No. 1 Jannik Sinner in the Rolex Shanghai Masters final. Only Jimmy Connors (109) and Roger Federer (103) have accomplished the feat according to the Infosys ATP Win/Loss Index.

“It feels like destiny to fight for a 100th title here in a place where I’ve had great success in the past, where I have tremendous support,” the four-time Shanghai champion said.

For a large majority of his finals, Djokovic has been the clear favourite. That is not the case at the season’s eighth ATP Masters 1000 event.

Sinner on Saturday clinched ATP Year-End No. 1 presented by PIF honours, becoming the first Italian to do so. The 23-year-old owns a whopping 3,270-point lead in the PIF ATP Live Race To Turin over second-placed Carlos Alcaraz, which he could extend to 3,620 points with a victory against Djokovic, who is in sixth.

To put that into perspective, Andrey Rublev, currently in line to qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals in eighth place in the Live Race, has earned 3,580 points this season. That is how dominant this year’s Australian Open and US Open champion has been in 2024.

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Sinner is now 64-6, tying his wins total from 2023, when he set the record for most wins by a male player from Italy in a single season in the Open Era. There has been no let-up in his campaign. Of the San Candido native’s six losses, five have come against Top 10 opponents and his only other defeat was to World No. 12 Stefanos Tsitsipas, the 2019 Nitto ATP Finals champion, who last year was World No. 3.

“He’s in form the past 12 months, best player in the world, incredible tennis, just so consistent, and [the] player to beat, no doubt, particularly on hard court,” Djokovic said. “He knows my game, I know his game. We haven’t played since Australia this year. Yeah, I’m hoping for the best. It’s going to take my highest level to win.”

Djokovic leads the pair’s Lexus ATP Head2Head series 4-3, but Sinner has won three of their past four meetings, most recently in the Australian Open semi-finals. Entering that clash, 10-time champion Djokovic had never lost from the semi-finals on at Melbourne Park.

Sinner not only won, but did so convincingly, 6-1, 6-2, 6-7(6), 6-3. Djokovic admitted he was not near his best, but also credited his opponent.

“I think his serve improved a lot. He’s hitting his corners very well, and I think he [increased] his speed, as well. Serving bigger now and more precise,” Djokovic said in January. “He was always very calm, very composed in the court, but I think he struggled maybe to win the big matches, in the big moments. But now it’s coming together for him.”

At the time of that encounter, Sinner had never reached the final of a Grand Slam tournament. Now he is a two-time major champion and leads the ATP Tour this year with six titles.

As confident as Sinner will be walking on court Sunday, he knows the level Djokovic is capable of. The 37-year-old showed it in Paris when he bounced back from a defeat in the Wimbledon final against Carlos Alcaraz to defeat the Spaniard for the gold medal.

“We always had some very tough matches in the past,” Sinner said of facing Djokovic. “It’s going to be a very tough one, it’s one of the biggest challenges we have in our sport.

“I’m happy that I can play against him in the final, it’s even more special, and then we see how it goes. I mean, it’s very tough to predict this one.”

Sinner, who has won 20 of his past 21 matches, is in better form. He has shown great consistency in both his game and results throughout the season. There is no secret about what his gameplan will be. The top seed will try to control the action with his unrelenting groundstrokes and break through the Serbian’s typically indefatigable defences.

Djokovic, who is competing in his first ATP Masters 1000 final of the season, will try to rely on his serve to battle through service games and use his defensive skills to make Sinner uncomfortable and try to break his rhythm.

Sinner, who can claim his fourth different hard-court Masters 1000 crown (also Canada, Cincinnati and Miami) in 14 months, has the form, and Djokovic the hunger for history. Who will prevail on Sunday in Shanghai?

“I’m in a great position to win the title, fighting for my 100th title overall, and 41st Masters [1000], against the best player in the world,” Djokovic said. “I won’t be a favourite on the court, but hopefully I’ll be able to come out physically fresh enough to challenge him for what may be [a] long match. I have to expect probably the toughest encounter of the tournament, and I have to be ready for it, so I look forward to a great challenge.”