League One Predictions 2024-25: The October Opta Supercomputer Update

We’ve decided it’s time to check in on the Opta supercomputer’s updated League One predictions and analyse some of the underlying data powering those projections.

With everyone either nine or 10 games into their 2024-25 League One campaign, we thought we’d take another look at the Opta supercomputer’s season projections.

The October international break means this coming weekend will see just two games take place, so for fans of the 20 teams who aren’t playing, you can get your League One fix for the time being by checking both how your team is expected to perform for the remainder of the season, as well as how well they are doing relative to their underlying numbers so far.

It may not be a surprise to see big-spending Birmingham City leading the way, and as we’ll reveal in greater detail shortly, the supercomputer doesn’t expect the Blues to relinquish control any time soon.

Three of the four promoted teams in Wrexham, Mansfield Town and Stockport County have taken to life in the third tier very well, all sitting in the top six, but it has been a less enjoyable return to League One for Crawley Town despite an initially promising start.

The gap between sixth and 18th is just three points, so with at least 36 games remaining for everyone, there’s plenty of time for things to change drastically.

The supercomputer’s prediction numbers have changed a lot since the start of the season, and there’s plenty of time for them to change again. Pinches of salt are highly recommended.

So, without further ado, let’s see what the supercomputer thinks.

The Promotion Race

At the start of the season, the Opta supercomputer suggested that Bolton Wanderers were the favourites to win League One. Ian Evatt’s men were given a 29.7% chance of finishing top of the pile, and a 48.1% chance of automatic promotion.

However, nine games in Bolton sit in ninth place, eight points off leaders Birmingham, who had been second favourites for the title (13.6%) and had a 27.3% probability of a top-two, promotion-securing finish.

There’s still plenty of time for Bolton to correct their course; they have won three of their last four (D1), but their chances of finishing first have now slipped to just 3.4%, while automatic promotion now only occurs in 12.7% of simulations.

Their poor start as well as an underwhelming first couple of months for Huddersfield Town (9th place) and Peterborough United (14th) – both also fancied to finish in the top four by the supercomputer in early August – has seen Birmingham’s title hopes skyrocket. Chris Davies’ men may only have a two-point lead, but they finish top in a whopping 69.3% of sims, at least 56.1% more than any other team. Naturally, they are heavily fancied for automatic promotion, going back up to the Championship 86.2% of the time.

Huddersfield have not adapted to life in League One as well as Birmingham, having won five and lost five of their 10 games. They find themselves finishing in the top two in 9.2% of sims, though, down from 22.5% at the start of the season, while Peterborough’s chances have reduced even further, from 20.6% to just 4.0%.

Wrexham will have felt underestimated at the start of the season, predicted to finish 20th, though in fairness the supercomputer largely looks at the recent history of a club’s results, with fewer points assigned for wins at lower levels, and no points awarded for how famous the owners are.

Expect that to change soon though as Phil Parkinson’s side have picked up in League One where they left off in League Two. Second-place Wrexham’s chances of finishing in the automatic promotion spots were just 0.02% in early August, and that has now improved to 3.9%. That might not seem like much but it’s almost as high as the fourth most-fancied side at the start of the season, Peterborough.

Many will have expected Wrexham to do well, but fewer will have looked at Mansfield. Nigel Clough’s Stags have won six of their nine games so far (D2 L1), improving their automatic promotion chances from a lowly 0.02% up to 2.3%.

Wycombe Wanderers have been something of a surprise package too, sitting in fifth after five wins from nine (D2 L2). They have seen their automatic promotion chances rise from 8.0% in early August to 19.3% third favourites now.

The Expected Points Table

The Opta expected points model simulates the number of goals scored by each side in each match based on the expected goals (xG) value of every shot taken. It then uses the simulated number of goals to determine the match outcome (win/draw/loss). Each match is then simulated 10,000 times. The expected points for each team in each match can then be calculated based on the proportion of simulations they win/draw/lose.

This is of course not an exact science, as expected goals data doesn’t include a lot of factors, such as game state and dangerous periods of possession that don’t lead to shots. Nevertheless, it’s still a decent barometer for how teams are performing. We can use it to see which teams’ league position doesn’t quite accurately reflect their performances.

Stockport came up from League Two last season as champions and sit in sixth place at present, suggesting they are exceeding expectations after only being given a 0.7% chance of reaching the play-offs at the start of the season. Dave Challinor’s side have impressed but are actually underperforming according to their expected points. Stockport should apparently have another 1.5 points, and are therefore third in the expected points table.

They are not the biggest underachievers compared to their expected points, though. For example, Birmingham shouldn’t even be top… (waits for shocked voices from the audience to dissipate).

Huddersfield sit in ninth place, but according to our expected points model they should have an extra three points, which would see them leapfrog Birmingham, who should have around four points fewer.

Blackpool have improved markedly since Steve Bruce arrived in September, winning four games in a row before a draw and defeat in their last two. The Tangerines still sit in 10th place despite apparently deserving to be in fifth, though.

Bolton are also underachieving, as we’ve covered, but in fairness the expected points table has them six places higher in seventh, which would have them primed to pounce into the promotion picture.

Steve Evans’ Rotherham United have struggled to get going after relegation from the Championship last season, and are 17th after 10 games, with just three wins (D4 L3). The expected points table catapults them up to eighth, though, so it seems performances aren’t as bad as the rankings suggest.

The team that can arguably feel hardest done by though is bottom-place Cambridge United. Garry Monk’s side have just one point from nine games, which is a massive 10 fewer than they should have. If they had the 11 points the expected points table believes they should, Cambridge would be up in 16th.

In terms of overperforming, apologies Wrexham and Mansfield, but the model thinks a smidgen of luck has been ridden so far. The Welsh side should have almost seven points fewer according to their underlying numbers, with a position in the expected points table of 13th, while Mansfield would have six fewer points and drop to 12th.

Lincoln City are the second favourites to win the League One title (13.1%), sitting in fourth place. They have a 37.7% probability of finishing in the top two, but in our expected points table they would actually have almost five fewer points and slip 10 places to 14th which, funnily enough, few would have expected.

The biggest overperformers? That would be Exeter City, who are just outside the play-off places in seventh. However, the Grecians have almost double the points (16) they should have (8.5). That would see them fall from seventh all the way down to 21st and into the relegation zone.

Still, the actual table means quite a lot more, so don’t worry too much Exeter fans.

Relegation Battle

It’s very early in the season, but according to the supercomputer, it’s already not looking promising for the bottom four.

We’ve already mentioned that Cambridge are underperforming their expected points, but their solitary point from their first nine games has seen their likelihood of relegation rise from 36.3% to a nail-biting 94.2%.

Burton Albion were the team with the highest chance of going down at the start of the season according to the Opta supercomputer (63.3%), and they have done little to change that. With four points and zero wins from their nine games, Burton now have an 87.8% likelihood of relegation.

Shrewsbury Town are also proving the supercomputer to be on the ball in terms of League One struggles. They were second likeliest to go down before the campaign at 59.5%, and that has now risen to 88.8% after just one win and five points from 10 games.

We wrote about Crawley Town’s unlikely rise after they won their first two games against Blackpool and Cambridge back in August. But since then, they have drawn one and lost six of their last seven league games and seen manager Scott Lindsey depart to Milton Keynes Dons… we’re taking no responsibility for cursing them, though. New boss Rob Elliot will have a tough job on his hands as his team now have a 70.5% chance of relegation straight back to League Two.

Northampton Town and Leyton Orient sit a point outside the relegation zone, with 25.9% and 8.9% probabilities of relegation respectively, and it’s a five-point jump from Orient in 19th to Bristol Rovers in 18th, though Matt Taylor’s men still have an 18.5% chance of going down.

Crawley might be struggling, but it looks like the other three promoted sides should be fine. Mansfield (47.8% to 0.3%), Wrexham (37.0% to 0.2%) and Stockport (30.9% to 1.3%) have all seen their relegation chances decrease significantly to the point where it would take a gigantic downturn in form to see them in any trouble.

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