Can Seahawks’ Geno Smith get his first win over 49ers?

RENTON, Wash. — Over the offseason, Mike Macdonald challenged Geno Smith to take the next step as a leader. The Seattle Seahawks‘ rookie head coach wanted the 12th-year quarterback — a fiery competitor who hasn’t always kept his cool in the heat of the moment — to be what Macdonald called “the voice of poise” in adverse situations.

The Seahawks have faced plenty of those during the two straight losses that followed their 3-0 start.

Against the Detroit Lions in Week 4, with Ford Field rocking on “Monday Night Football” and Detroit’s offense rolling against Seattle’s short-handed defense, Smith threw for a career-high 395 yards to keep the Seahawks in it. He drew praise from Macdonald postgame for how he stayed calm amid the chaos.

Against the New York Giants on Sunday, Smith was sacked five times through the first three-and-a-half quarters. Seattle’s offense managed six points in that span. But late in the fourth, Smith drove them 95 yards for a touchdown, then led another drive that put them in position for a tying field goal try that was blocked.

“He’s tough as nails, man,” first-year offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb said. “He’s a total warrior. … This week, probably more than any week, it would’ve been very easy for him to let frustration take over his game.

“That’s the thing you see from a veteran quarterback is a guy that can still be passionate and be himself and find a way to get himself back to room temperature to make good decisions and still give us a chance to win.”

That is a big question Smith has been answering as he tries to cement himself as the Seahawks’ long-term answer at quarterback. Now comes another one — can he beat the San Francisco 49ers?

Since replacing Russell Wilson, Smith has yet to beat the 49ers. If he wants to prove to the Seahawks that he’s worthy of a new contract that he sought this offseason, a win over their division rival is another box Smith can check when Seattle hosts San Francisco on Thursday night at Lumen Field (8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video).

Including playoffs, Smith is winless in four tries against the 49ers since 2022, missing one of their matchups last season because of a groin injury. The Seahawks are 0-5 against San Francisco in that span, and they’ve been dominated every bit as much as the combined score of 148-72 would suggest.

Their latest matchup comes with each team’s season at an early crossroads. The 49ers fell to 2-3 after blowing a 13-point lead Sunday as their defense has struggled, and they’ll again be without running back Christian McCaffrey. The Seahawks sit atop the NFC West at 3-2 but are dealing with an inconsistent defense and overmatched offensive line, two issues that have dogged them in recent seasons.

But a new offense provides hope that Smith and the Seahawks can change their fortunes against San Francisco and stay atop the division. Before they turned in an all-three-phases clunker against the Giants, Smith was off to a strong start in Grubb’s system, ranking ninth in QBR over the first four weeks.

“Geno is a big bright spot on our football team right now,” Macdonald said. “He’s a galvanizing force. The guy’s competing his tail off … doing a lot of great things, so let’s keep it going. We’re five games in, we’ve got a long way to go. But the good news is we got another game here to make it right and have Geno take the next step in his game. And we expect him to do so.”

SMITH’S RESUME DURING his two-plus seasons as the Seahawks’ starter includes several accomplishments of a franchise quarterback.

He led the league in completion rate on his way to a Pro Bowl and a wild-card berth in 2022. Last season, he threw an NFL record seven go-ahead touchdowns in the fourth quarter or overtime. His stretches of brilliance include the best QBR of any quarterback over the final six weeks of 2023. Since the beginning of 2022, he ranks eighth among qualified QBs in that metric.

For all the uncertainty about Smith’s long-term future — the Seahawks were reluctant to publicly commit to him this offseason then traded for QB Sam Howell in March — there’s been no question that his contract is a relative bargain.

Smith’s $25 million average ranks 20th among quarterbacks and sits a whopping $35 million behind Dak Prescott‘s new league-high APY of $60 million. Smith’s QBR of 61.9 since the start of the 2022 season ranks eighth among quarterbacks with at least 15 starts in that span. That’s better than 13 of the 19 QBs who make more money than him per year.

Smith confirmed before the season that his agent reached out to Seahawks general manager John Schneider this summer to inquire about a new deal, which was a nonstarter for the Seahawks given their policy of not reworking contracts that have more than one year left.

“That’s just normal business,” Smith said of his desire for a new deal. “Nothing wrong with that.”

It’s certain to be revisited this coming offseason, when Smith will be eligible for a new deal as he enters the final year of a three-year deal signed in 2022.

Smith is set to make $25 million in 2025, though that figure could increase by as much as $15 million via escalators. Smith is currently on pace to hit three of them, which would qualify him to make an additional $6 million.

Making Smith one of the 10 highest-paid quarterbacks would likely mean giving him a deal averaging at least $50 million. As of now, $40 million is tied for the 15th-highest APY at the position, though that will likely change this offseason with San Francisco’s Brock Purdy eligible for a massive extension.

In the meantime, Smith will try to beat Purdy for the first time Thursday night. While he had his trademark accuracy in his four losses to San Francisco — a 72.1% completion rate — there was not much production, averaging only 217 passing yards with three total touchdowns to three interceptions. He’s been sacked a combined 14 times while Seattle’s offense has averaged only 10.5 points. Among the 23 teams Smith has faced in that span, his 44.8 QBR against the 49ers is his fourth worst.

“Geno has played OK in those games,” former NFL quarterback Brock Huard said. “… But Thursday night, I think he’s going to have to be better than he was Sunday afternoon where I thought two, three times he sacked himself instead of getting out of trouble or finding an outlet.”

THE NEW OFFENSIVE scheme has been working for Smith.

As they have done often this season, the Seahawks went no-huddle early in their Week 2 win over the New England Patriots. Facing a second-and-5 near midfield, Smith surveyed the defense and sent TE Noah Fant in motion. Wide receiver DK Metcalf lined up in the slot and ran a go route right through a confused Patriots secondary. Their busted coverage resulted in a 55-yard touchdown and illustrated how Smith can thrive in Grubb’s scheme that tries to put defenses in a bind.

Smith leads the league through five weeks with 1,182 passing yards, while his 72.3% completion rate ranks second. His five touchdown passes are less impressive — especially compared to his four interceptions, though two of them were off deflections and another came while Seattle was in desperation mode late in a 13-point loss to the Lions.

Grubb, Macdonald’s most important hire this offseason, coordinated one of college football’s most prolific offenses over the past two seasons at the University of Washington. The Seahawks then lured him away from Alabama after he had agreed to follow coach Kalen DeBoer from Seattle to Tuscaloosa.

As Huard explained, Grubb utilizes shifts and motions in the same way that 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan and his offensive disciples do — to “change the picture” for defenses on the fly. One of the goals of pushing the pace with a no-huddle is to make it harder for defenders to get on the same page as they’re adjusting to a new offensive look.

“The thought behind that is, there’s going to be breakdowns of communication, that you just can’t keep up with all of those picture frames consistently and constantly, and especially with tempo,” Huard said. “That’s when this thing has really thrived this season and has, really, for years with DeBoer and Grubb, is you mix those looks … you bust communication and big plays follow.”

The Seahawks rank 14th in percentage of offensive plays (58.1) in which they’ve used motion at or before the snap, according to ESPN Research. They’ve run the third-highest percentage of no-huddle plays (25.5), a mode that Smith thrived in during his college days at West Virginia.

“I like the fact that we’re very aggressive, an up-tempo attacking style offense,” Smith said. “That’s something that’s fun to be a part of, just the way that Coach Grubb calls the games. He’s not afraid to get the calls off the sheet. He’s being aggressive, he’s trying to attack the defense, he’s setting things up.”

And the new OC is running most of the offense through his quarterback, at least for now. The Seahawks rank first in designed pass rate (71.1%), in part because of the game script as well as the two weeks they didn’t have Kenneth Walker III. Macdonald has made it clear that they need to run the ball more, but Smith has taken advantage of his extra opportunities to throw it.

Dropping back more than any other quarterback has also meant more chances to scramble. Smith has rushed for 146 rushing yards — seventh-most at the position — and a touchdown on 20 attempts.

Smith ranks 11th in QBR (63.5) while playing behind an offensive line that sits third-worst in pass block win rate (48.3%).

“In the first year of a system with a lot of new concepts, I’ve been impressed with his command of it,” Huard said. “… In control, in command and I think he really, really enjoys playing in this scheme and it fits, I think, a lot of his skill set.”

THURSDAY NIGHT IS an opportunity for Smith to get his first win against the 49ers, but also a chance for the Seahawks to turn the tide in the NFC West.

San Francisco has won the division the past two seasons and three times in the past five years, reaching the Super Bowl twice in that span. But with a win, the Seahawks would have a two-game lead over the 49ers, one head-to-head victory and a 1-0 record in the division. San Francisco, meanwhile, would fall to 0-3 in NFC West play, having already lost to the Cardinals (2-3) and Los Angeles Rams (1-4).

The Seahawks’ struggling defense remains far from full strength, with Uchenna Nwosu headed to injured reserve, Byron Murphy II set to miss a third straight game and Riq Woolen out as well. Which means the Seahawks might need Smith and their offense to carry them again against a defense that’s had their number.

“They’re not going to try and trick you as far as scheme goes,” Smith said. “They’re going to line up and force you to beat them for 60 minutes. We respect them. They’ve been a great team, especially in recent years. It’s time for us to go out there and get it done.”