Is This the Worst Team of the Chiefs Dynasty, or the Best?

As Kansas City heads into its bye week, one has to wonder: How does this team compare to the others in the Patrick Mahomes-Andy Reid era? Though it has looked bad at times, the numbers tell a positive story.

The Kansas City Chiefs are 5-0 for the first since Patrick Mahomes’ first year as a starter in 2018 and stand alone at the top of the AFC West and the AFC.

Yes, Kansas City’s quest to become the first team in NFL history to win three consecutive Super Bowls is off to a hot start. But as Mahomes and company head into their Week 6 bye, one has to wonder: Is this the worst version of the Chiefs in the Mahomes-Andy Reid era?

It sure looks like it. 

Despite an undefeated record, Kansas City’s margin of victory is just 6.6 points – which is the second fewest since 2018 behind only the 2023 team that just won a Super Bowl.

The offense hasn’t played up to its usual self, either. Mahomes is playing poorly – by his standards, at least – with six only touchdown passes, a league-high six interceptions and career-worst 247 passing yards per game. The offense as a whole ranks outside the top 10 in both yards and points in the Andy Reid era for the first time since 2016 with just 23.6 points per game and 354.6 yards per game.

Part of that is due to the talent around Mahomes. The Chiefs are leaning on aging veterans like 35-year-old tight end Travis Kelce and former KC stars like receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster and running back Kareem Hunt after losing starting receivers Rashee Rice and Marquise “Hollywood” Brown as well as running back Isiah Pacheco to long-term injuries.

Rookie receiver Xavier Worthy and running back Carson Steele are in the mix as well, but are less established and inherently less reliable.

The defense remains the team’s calling card for the second consecutive year, but still not quite as good as its 2023 version. Kansas City ranks fifth in points allowed and ninth in yards allowed (the Chiefs finished 2023 second in both categories) and is highly susceptible through the air (21st in passing yards allowed and 18th in passing touchdowns allowed). That’s what happens when you trade away your top cornerback and keep your All-Pro defensive tackle.

And yet, the Chiefs remain the best team in the NFL with the highest probability of winning the Super Bowl, per our projection model. What gives? Why is a seemingly mediocre team – statistically, at least – the last undefeated team in the AFC and among the only two undefeated teams in the NFL? 

It’s all about recency bias, the team’s performance relative to the rest of the league and how Reid found plug-and-play replacements for his lost offensive talent to maintain continuity.

NFL fans are used to the high-flying Chiefs of old: When Mahomes and Co. averaged nearly 30 points per game from 2018-22. Those teams were flashy and exciting and won a lot of high-scoring games. But they also won just one Super Bowl. 

Since then, the Chiefs evened out a bit. The offense averages just 22.7 points since 2023, but the defense allows just 17.2 points per game. That type of balance wins games, especially given 17.2 points per game allowed ranks No. 1 in the NFL over the past 22 regular-season games.

The other thing to consider is how the Chiefs play relative to the rest of the league around them. They’re not blowing the doors off of teams like they used to, but they also don’t have to anymore.

Scoring is down year-over-year across the league (22.1 points in 2024 vs. 23.3 points in 2018) and the Chiefs have been able to supplement a less dynamic roster (mainly sans Tyreek Hill) with quality depth, a better defense and a more efficient Mahomes.

TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Competition and Roster) is another way to look at the Chiefs’ 2024 campaign. It’s a model that normalizes performance from league environmental factors that can either inflate or deflate its numbers, making it possible to compare teams with varying rosters across multiple years and eras. We can use this to compare this season’s version of the Chiefs with prior Mahomes-led Chiefs teams.

And even though they don’t look it, the 2024 Chiefs rank second in TRACR behind only the 2019 Chiefs – the same team that won the first Super Bowl in the Mahomes-Reid era. 

The main difference between this year’s team and that year’s team is the 2019 Chiefs had a 10.87 offensive rating (second highest between 2019-24) and a defensive rating of minus-1.46 (which in this case is a positive). The 2024 Chiefs, meanwhile, are more balanced, with a 6.48 offensive rating and -5.18 defensive rating.

If anything, it was a more miraculous feat that the 2023 Chiefs – who had a TRACR that ranks last among Mahomes-era Chiefs teams by almost half – won a Super Bowl than any other team on this list.

Let’s look at it another way: EPA (Expected Points Added) per play. The Chiefs evened out here as well. 

Kansas City boasted the best or second-best offensive EPA/play every year from 2018-22. However, the years the team won a Super Bowl during that span – in 2019 and 2022 – were the same years its defensive EPA/play ranked inside the top 15.

The Chiefs also had the eighth-best defensive EPA/play in 2023 (when they won their second consecutive Super Bowl) and maintained the eight-best mark through the first five weeks of the 2024 season.

But let’s return to the offense and look at Mahomes and his offensive skill position players.

Mahomes is having his worst statistical season as the starter: Quarterback rating, yards per game and touchdowns are down, and interception rate is up. While this is awful for fantasy football, it’s actually proven fruitful for Kansas City because of how efficient he’s been with his passes – minus the interceptions.

Mahomes’ air yards and deep throw percentage are also way down for his career, while his completion and catchable-ball percentages are at a career high this season. He’s not trying to hit home runs anymore and is instead looking for easy passes that keep drives moving.

This, in turn, helped bolster the team’s scoring offense. Kansas City has scored on 46% of its drives this season, which is in-line with previous Mahomes-Reid teams, with the exception of the 2023 squad.

Reid has this offense humming at such an efficient rate that it’s been incredibly easy to replace the injured stars. Pacheco is expected to miss more time with a fractured right fibula, while Rice will miss the entire 2024 season after he sustained a knee injury in Week 4. Brown won’t even see the field this year after a preseason shoulder injury.

The Chiefs brought back Hunt to replace Pacheco and Smith-Schuster to replace Rice, and they both effectively mirrored their predecessors’ production. 

Hunt, who tallied almost 3,000 total yards in 27 games for the Chiefs from 2017-18 before being cut, returned to a near-full workload in Week 5 with 27 carries for 102 yards and one touchdown. Smith-Schuster, who caught 78 passes for almost 1,000 yards for the Chiefs in 2022, led Kansas City in Week 5 with seven receptions for 130 yards. 

So while this version of the Chiefs doesn’t look any better than either of the other three teams that won Super Bowls, they’re playing the type of football that wins Lombardi Trophies.

Remember that 11.66 TRACR? That number isn’t far outside the top-10 highest TRACR teams since 1991 (20th). KC’s -5.18 defensive TRACR also currently sits 40th over that span.

This is the power of pairing the best offensive mind in football with the best quarterback in football and adding in one of the best defenses in the NFL to boot.

It doesn’t take a historically great offense packed with talented stars to win games anymore. If a team knows how to scheme competent players on offense and play quality defense, that can overcome even the most mundane-looking teams.

The Chiefs aren’t the most electric team in the NFL anymore. But they don’t have to be to accomplish their goals with the roster they have.

So long as Mahomes remains under center and Reid remains on the sideline, Kansas City’s window to win will remain very wide open.

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