Falcons vs. Panthers Predictions | Opta Analyst

Kirk Cousins showed he just might be all the way back from injury in a historically good performance last Thursday night. Can he do it again? We break it down in our Falcons vs. Panthers predictions.

Timing is everything in sports.

Perhaps there is no greater example of this than the timing between a quarterback and wide receiver.

Lined up dozens of yards away from one another at the start of a play, the quarterback anticipates exactly what his receiver will be doing and releases the ball even before he’s open to a spot on the field where he envisions his teammate will be.

Quarterbacks and receivers practice for hours and hours throughout the spring and summer and then into preseason games to fine-tune their timing. Despite all their hours of practices and 7-on-7s, actual game speed is the best way for QBs and receivers to truly master their timing on progressions and coming in and out of routes.

That was clearly evident while watching Kirk Cousins in his first few games in an Atlanta Falcons uniform.

After skipping the entire 2024 preseason while recovering from an Achilles injury sustained in Week 8 of the 2023 NFL season, Cousins was out of sync with his Atlanta receivers once the 2024 season began and hardly looked like a player deserving of a four-year, $180 million contract, including $100 million in guaranteed money.

There were grumblings that the 36-year-old vet was unable to push off his surgically repaired right foot and get the needed velocity on his throws and it was only a matter of time until there would be calls for first-round pick Michael Penix Jr. to take over the offense.

Cousins, however, silenced his critics in the Falcons’ Week 5 NFC South shootout with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last Thursday night, with some precision passing.

After not throwing for more than 250 yards in any of his first four games as a Falcon, Cousins threw for 253 yards and two touchdowns in the first half alone against the Bucs. He then passed for another 256 yards with two more TD throws after halftime to become the first quarterback in the Super Bowl era to throw for 250+ yards both before and after halftime.

He put together an MVP-caliber performance with a personal and team record for passing yards with 509, with the final 45 coming on a scoring pass to KhaDarel Hodge in overtime to send the Falcons to a 36-30 win.

Following the thrilling victory, Cousins said he finally felt comfortable in the offense and was in sync with the routes Drake London and Kyle Pitts were running.

“It was a drive in the second quarter when I threw a couple passes where I was basically anticipating where Kyle was going to be or where Drake was going to be,” said Cousins, who did have one interception.

“I was ahead of it a little bit in a good way and threw it decisively. I just haven’t been that decisive the first few weeks. I’ve been trying to ensure that’s where they’re going and ensure that’s what I’m seeing before I let it rip.

“I felt that there was a little bit more – now, after four games – where I know where they are going. I know where they are going to be. And I am going to let it rip early.”

Armed with a better grasp of the passing game and a newfound comfort level with his receivers, Cousins could foresee their movements and was able to fire the ball out quicker.

With everyone on the same page, he threw 28 quick passes – 12 fewer than he threw in the first four games combined – and carved up the Tampa Bay defense with accurate throws on these quick hitters.

As Cousins stated after the win, he had an intuitive connection with London and Pitts and the numbers back that up.

Cousins threw 13 passes to London with the third-year receiver catching all but one of them for 154 yards with an 18-yard touchdown.

Cousins posted a 141.7 passer rating on those 13 throws – the third highest by a QB to a player in a game this season with a minimum of 10 targets – after he registered a 90.8 passer rating on his 31 throws to London in the season’s first four weeks.

London caught less than two-thirds of those passes – 20 receptions for 200 yards with two TDs.

Highest Game Passer Rating for QB-Pass Catcher Duo (Min. 10 Targets)

• 158.3 – Brock Purdy-Jauan Jennings, San Francisco 49ers (Week 3)
• 152.1 – C.J. Stroud–Nico Collins, Houston Texans (Week 2)
• 141.7 – Kirk Cousins–Drake London, Atlanta Falcons (Week 5)
• 139.2 – Daniel Jones–Darius Slayton, New York Giants (Week 5)
• 133.7 – Caleb Williams–Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears (Week 3)

Pitts, meanwhile, was targeted eight times and came away with seven catches for 88 yards with Cousins recording a 112.5 passer rating. In the first four games, Cousins had a 70.1 QB rating on his 15 throws to the Falcons tight end with Pitts catching just over half – eight receptions for 105 yards.

They weren’t the only two to get more involved in Atlanta’s passing game, as Cousins completed passes to seven different players – his most in a game this season.

Darnell Mooney had nine receptions for 105 yards with two touchdowns, while Ray-Ray McCloud caught six passes for 66 yards.

It was a season high in receiving yards for London, Mooney, Pitts and McCloud, and it marked the first time the Falcons had four receivers finish with at least five receptions and 50 or more receiving yards since Week 7 of the 2020 season.

Cousins said a chemistry with his receivers is developing and he looked much more comfortable running the offense. In the first four weeks, 67.0% of his passes were thrown to the intended receiver in the structure of a given play call, as he was veering away from the play design. Against Tampa Bay, he showed more trust in his receivers, and 81.5% of his throws were under the intent of the play design.

What’s interesting about Cousins’ breakout game for Atlanta is that his receivers weren’t getting open at a higher rate than they were in the first four weeks.

London registered a burn percentage of 54.8 in the first four weeks – 31st out of the 47 receivers targeted at least 20 times – and he only won seven of his 13 matchups against the Bucs – a rate of 53.8.

Mooney also saw a dip in his burn percentage last Thursday, winning only eight of the 16 matchups in the times he was targeted after recording a burn percentage of 66.7 through Week 4 – 12th highest among qualifying receivers.

Atlanta receivers got open on throws they were targeted at a slightly higher rate last week – 74.1% against the Bucs after entering Week 5 with an open percentage of 71.4 – but it wasn’t a huge improvement. It boiled down to Cousins simply displayed more trust in his receivers.

Atlanta Player Projections vs. Carolina (as of Wednesday)

• Kirk Cousins: 22.5 completions on 34.5 attempts for 266.0 yards with 1.3 TDs and 0.7 INTs
• Bijan Robinson: 16.1 rushes for 68.3 yards with 0.6 touchdowns
• Darnell Mooney: 5.6 receptions for 78.0 yards with 0.3 touchdowns
• Drake London: 5.4 receptions for 61.8 yards with 0.4 touchdowns
• Kyle Pitts: 3.6 receptions for 48.6 yards with 0.3 touchdowns

While Cousins’ receivers haven’t created much space between themselves and opposing defensive backs up to this point, they should have an easier time of getting open with a Week 6 matchup against Andy Dalton, Chuba Hubbard and the 1-4 Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte on Sunday (on FOX).

The Panthers rank 29th in open-allowed percentage (83.5) and 25th in burn-allowed percentage (51.8). In their latest defeat, Sunday’s 36-10 thrashing by the Chicago Bears, Caleb Williams picked the Carolina secondary apart in a breakout performance for the No. 1 overall pick. Williams completed 20-of-29 attempts for 304 yards with two touchdowns as the Bears receivers were open on 85.2% of the throws they were targeted.

Carolina also had a non-existent pass rush. The defense sacked Williams just once – their first sack since NFL Week 3 – and their pressure rate this season of 32.5 beats out only the Indianapolis Colts (30.2).

Against the Panthers, Williams registered his highest EVE, which measures the average yards gained compared to the league-wide expected amount in a given situation, with a mark of 2.8 average yards through the air.

Cousins took a huge step forward in his acclimation with his Atlanta receivers last week, and he appears poised for another big game. Among our supercomputer’s NFL picks, it has calculated the Falcons as the best bets with a 65.5% probability of beating the underdog Panthers.

Cousins’ record-setting showing against the Bucs came in front of Atlanta longtime starting quarterback Matt Ryan, who was being inducted into the Falcons’ Ring of Honor. Since Ryan left Atlanta, the Falcons’ quarterback situation has been a disaster, with the team cycling through Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke.

The signing of Cousins was supposed to clean up the QB mess, and his latest performance shows the veteran can still be decisive with his passes and play at a high level.

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