New York Liberty vs. Minnesota Lynx » Winsidr

The New York Liberty and Minnesota Lynx will square off in a best-of-five WNBA Finals after the Lynx took down the Connecticut Sun in five games and the Liberty defeated the Las Vegas Aces in four. 

Series Schedule:

Game One: Barclays Center – 8:00 p.m. ET on Thursday, Oct. 9 – ESPN
Game Two: Barclays Center – 3:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, Oct. 13 – ABC
Game Three: Target Center – 8:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 16 – ESPN
Game Four: Target Center – 8:00 p.m. ET on Friday, Oct. 18 – ESPN*
Game Five: Barclays Center – 8:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, Oct. 20 – ESPN*

*if necessary

Matchups We Can’t Wait to Watch

Ace: I cannot wait to see how Jonquel Jones fares on the perimeter against Alanna Smith. I think Jones is such a versatile defender as she can be switched from either Napheesa Collier or Smith, or literally any other tall guard that the Lynx have to throw out, so her ability to both stay out of foul trouble and guard up on Smith will be crucial to keeping the Lynx’s three point shooting to somewhere within our atmosphere. Smith is the definition of a sharp shooter this postseason – posting above a 65 percent shooting clip from three on three or more attempts in the Connecticut Sun series – so Jones’ ability to get stops and kill Minnesota’s chances at easy outside bailout shots will be huge. 

Mitchell: Everyone is looking forward to the MVP-caliber battle between Breanna Stewart and Napheesa Collier—myself included—but one matchup I think could play a big factor in this championship series is one at the point guard position between Minnesota’s Courtney Williams and New York’s Sabrina Ionescu.

Both point guards have been key pieces offensively in the postseason to this point, with Ionescu averaging 20.7 PPG, 5.2 APG, 5.2 RPG and 1.5 SPG over six playoff contests thus far. Williams, on the other hand, is a player that takes Minnesota to the next level when her play elevates. In the postseason, Williams has averaged 13.7 points, 5.7 assists, 3.6 rebounds and 1.4 stelas over seven games, including reaching double figures in scoring in five of the seven contests. 

Against each other this season, in three regular season battles, Ionescu held the advantage over Williams. In those three games, Ionescu averaged 14.3 PPG, 4.7 APG and 3.3 RPG against Williams and Minnesota. On the other side, Williams averaged 10.3 PPG, 4.7 APG and 4.7 RPG against Ionescu and New York. 

X-Factors 

Ace: As weird as it is to say, Courtney Vandersloot is going to be a big X-Factor in this series outside of the “stars.” Vandersloot has been excellent off the bench for New York in this postseason, something she herself has admitted she isn’t used to but is embracing fully. We know the accolades of Vandersloot – the assists record, the championship pedigree she brings to the Liberty – but her ability to lead the second unit that’s struggling offensively would be huge. If she’s able to find her benchmates in easy spots to score, like Kayla Thornton at the nail or Kennedy Burke cutting to the basket, she could get them going and add to their already excellent defensive capabilities on the floor against the Lynx’s talented second unit. If she can outplay Natisha Hiedeman, it’s a great sign for the Liberty. 

Mitchell: To me, two biggest keys in this series will be which team is able to hurt the other from deep and which bench unit will consistently provide relief to the starters and a spark to their squad. 

During the regular season series between Minnesota and New York, the Lynx shot 42.5 percent from three compared to the Liberty’s 24.7 percent from deep, a credit to Minnesota’s defense. However, so far in the postseason, New York has averaged 9.2 threes per game while shooting 37.2 percent over six games. Minnesota, on the other hand, has averaged 8.3 threes while also posting a shooting mark of 37.2 percent from deep over seven games. 

Now, when it comes to the bench, both teams are very similar in this area, with each squad’s bench averaging 13.7 PPG as a unit so far this postseason. During the regular season, the Lynx held an advantage in this area, with their bench averaging 18.0 PPG (fourth-best in WNBA) while the Liberty second unit averaged 16.1 PPG (eighth in WNBA).

This series will come down to the very minor details, with the smallest of mistakes likely resulting in coming up short. But two factors that I think could be most important of them all is the play of both team’s bench and the success—or lack thereof—from three.

Bold predictions

Ace: Kayla Thornton’s going to get back on track in this series. I think the Liberty’s starters are going to do a good job, at least in Game 1, of taking advantage of the Lynx’s limited rest and getting out in front early. Through that, I think Thornton will play with a lot less pressure in this matchup. If she can lock in from midrange and from three point range and stretch the floor for a less talented shooting bench for New York, she will go beyond a fan favorite for the Liberty – she’ll be a major part of the lore around the Liberty winning its first chip. In five games, of course!

Mitchell: This might not be the boldest of predictions, but my prediction for this series is that it will go the full five games and will be a back-and-forth battle that will have us on the edge of our seats throughout the five contests. Collier and Stewart will be their MVP-type selves, both teams will display impressive depth and spread out attacks, and it will likely come down to the smallest of details in the end. Regardless of the outcome, it will be extremely fun seeing both Minnesota and New York make game-to-game adjustments and play a chess match throughout the best-of-five showdown, which will end with a winner-take-all Game 5 on Oct. 20 in Brooklyn.