Raven Chapman must solve the Skye Nicolson puzzle

By Mark Baldwin

ELEVEN professional opponents have tried to solve the great Skye Nicolson puzzle. They all failed. The Australian has won with ease. Only one opponent tested her. A tough night last year in New York against Tania Alvarez. A learning fight for Nicolson. She still won. In truth, she won well. But Alvarez made her work. The only opponent to do so to date. Nicolson learned. She changed. The former Olympian has been untouchable ever since.

On Saturday night, Raven Chapman will be the latest fighter to try. Chapman has a better chance than the rest. She is a live opponent. An unbeaten contender who, probably unlike most if not all of the Australian’s previous opponents, brings confidence and a genuine belief that she will win. Trust me, that matters.

I’ve interviewed both on more than one occasion. It’s difficult to see a crack in their confidence. It’s a fight both want. It’s a fight both need.

The blueprint to beat Nicolson looks easy on paper. But nobody has yet managed it. In truth, nobody has come close. Nicolson can very quickly be out of sight. Before you know it, the fight is virtually over. You can be five or six rounds down on the cards without landing a single punch of note. Chapman knows she has to start fast. If Nicolson gets ahead. She probably won’t be caught. 11 previous opponents will testify to that.

But Chapman brings plenty to the table. In nine fights and nine wins, she has had to work a little harder for those wins than Nicolson has for her eleven victories. A little fact that could be crucial if the fight goes deep and hard. If Chapman is to win, it just has to go that way. She will know that she has to make Nicolson more than uncomfortable. 

In simple terms, she has to stick it on her. And repeatedly. Chapman believes she is very different from those who have previously tried. She will need to be. Chapman will win rounds. The question is, will she win enough. The odds say that she won’t.

Nicolson and Chapman will create a little slice of history this coming weekend. The first female fight to feature during Riyadh Season. An important footnote in the current climate. It should have come sooner. But we have it now. A lot will ride on the shoulders of both fighters. The WBC world featherweight title isn’t the only thing at stake on Saturday night. For many reasons, you sense the fight has to deliver.

Skye Nicolson defends her WBC bauble for the second time. She won’t admit it, but it’s the first fight she will enter when there is a real chance that she will lose. But Chapman is in the exact same position. Maybe even more so. But both have wanted this moment of truth. Both just want to know just how good they are. In boxing, that is rare. This is a good fight.

Chapman believes she will win. “I just think I do everything better. Just expect violence on the night,” she told me last month.

But Nicolson has never been short of confidence. Even in the embryonic stages of her professional career, she was shouting for a fight with Amanda Serrano. In fairness, she still is. It won’t happen, of course. But it won’t do Nicolson any harm to keep shouting.

Nicolson wants to be the best female fighter that ever lived. Bold claims. But you have to admire the ambition. But sometimes reality hits home harder than any punch. Nicolson might very well be the best featherweight on the planet, but for anything else, judgement needs to be reserved. Once the featherweight ranks have been left behind, that might be where the trouble starts. Raven Chapman might even give her all the trouble she can handle this coming weekend.

The elusive catch me if you can style of Nicolson isn’t for everyone. The often single punch offence and that refusal to only engage at a safe distance puts many off. Some will say Nicolson runs. She will say it’s movement. But whatever it is, it works. And quite beautifully. It is her biggest weapon. It’s not up to her to change. It’s up to her opponents to figure the style out. Boxing’s Rubik Cube.

The Kingdom Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, will host the fight. A good fight. But also a very important one. It is history. Well, sort of. An overused phrase in any walk of life. But more so in boxing. But regardless of the label attached, Skye Nicolson and Raven Chapman have got the seismic platform and the fight that they craved for. It might be a moment in time. The hope is that many more similar moments will follow for their side of the sport.