Chelsea Second, Arsenal Eighth?! An Early Look at Opta’s Premier League Expected Points Table

It’s still early days, but we’ve decided to look at the 2024-25 Premier League table based on Opta’s expected points model. Basically, what the table ‘should’ look like based on each team’s underlying numbers.

We’re seven games into the 2024-25 season and the early Premier League table is starting to take shape. At surface level, there are arguably few surprises. Liverpool, Manchester City and Arsenal make up the top three, Aston Villa and Brighton lead the chasing pack, while the three promoted teams are in the bottom five.

Manchester United down in 14th  will certainly raise a few eyebrows, but perhaps Wolves being rock bottom is the biggest surprise, although we did point out at the start of the season that they had the hardest opening fixtures of any team.

But is the table an accurate reflection of how each team has performed based on their underlying numbers? Or is it lying to us? We can use Opta’s expected points model to answer that very question.

Before you say it – yes – we know real-life points count for infinitely more than expected points. But looking at the underlying data can help tell the real story of the season so far, and can be used to see which sides have got lucky, or unlucky, in the first two months of the season.  

How does it work? Well, our expected points model simulates the number of goals scored by each side in each match based on the expected goals (xG) value of every shot taken. It then uses the simulated number of goals to determine the match outcome (win/draw/loss). Each match is then simulated 10,000 times. The expected points for each team in each match can then be calculated based on the proportion of simulations they win/draw/lose.

It’s not an exact science, as expected goals data doesn’t include a lot of factors, such as game state and dangerous periods of possession that don’t lead to shots. Nevertheless, it can still give us a good guide as to how much we can read into the table at this stage of the season.

Liverpool’s position at the top of the table is fully deserved, with the Reds also leading in Opta’s expected points table. Arne Slot’s side have conceded just two goals thus far, and that’s come from a league-low 5.2 expected goals against. At +8.9, their positive expected goals difference is comfortably the best of any team.

If you’d told Chelsea fans they’d be fourth heading into the second international break of the season they’d have surely bitten your hand off. However, the underlying numbers are even better, and suggest the Blues could be as high as second. Chelsea’s opening-day defeat to Man City remains their only loss, while two home draws against Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest could have been wins on another day: Enzo Maresca’s side ‘won’ both those fixtures on expected goals by a fair margin.

Perhaps the biggest story here is Arsenal. The Gunners remain unbeaten and sit just one point off the top in third, but the underlying data suggests they’ve been fortunate to be that high. Our expected points model has them down in eighth place.

Now it’s important to note game state here – they were reduced to 10 men against both Brighton (1-1) and Man City (2-2), and in both those games their opponents racked up a lot of shots as Arsenal sat back to grind out results. Aston Villa, meanwhile, had the better of the opportunities on MD 2 but were unable to convert those.

That said, it’s certainly a skill to be able to pick up points even when your team doesn’t have the better of the game, and that’s a quality certainly present in this Arsenal team under Mikel Arteta.

Tottenham’s inexplicable 3-2 defeat against Brighton on Sunday would have riled up even the most loyal of Ange Postecoglou fans, but Spurs arguably deserve to be higher than their current position of ninth – as high as fourth, in fact, according to the expected points model.

They were particularly wasteful in their opening-day draw to Leicester (1-1) and in Matchday 3’s loss to Newcastle (2-1); simulate the shots in those games 10,000 times and Spurs likely come away with far more than just one point.

Tottenham are five positions below where they could expect to be – only Bournemouth (6) have been “unluckier” this season.

Speaking of the Cherries, they sit in seventh place in Opta’s expected points table, six spots higher than their actual league position of 13. Saturday’s 1-0 defeat at Leicester was the latest example of a game in which Bournemouth dominated, taking 19 shots to their opponents’ 6, but they came away with nothing. Andoni Iraola’s men have picked up eight points thus far, but the underlying data suggests they ought to have about four more (12.03).

Further down the table, Man Utd fans can feel slightly hard done by with their side sitting in 14th, but only just. Some very poor finishing in front of goal has them four places lower than they ‘ought’ to be (10th). However, we don’t know what’s more concerning – the lack of clinical edge in front of goal, or the fact that a club as big as United ‘should’ be only as high as 10th.

At the foot of the table, Wolves, Leicester City and Ipswich Town currently occupy the bottom three in our expected points table, but in reality, it’s Crystal Palace and Southampton who are there together with Wolves.

Saints have just one point from their seven games so far, but their performances have been worth over six (6.66) according to expected goals. Their negative difference between actual points and expected points (-5.66) is the worst record in the league.

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