Jeremy Swayman Deal Hurts Oilers and Future Skinner Contract

The Edmonton Oilers don’t have to worry about a contract extension for goaltender Stuart Skinner for at least two seasons. That said, the eight-year deal Jeremy Swayman just struck with the Boston Bruins is not ideal news for the Oilers when it comes to predicting what Skinner’s next contract could look like.

Swayman just pushed the Bruins to slightly reset the goalie market with a contract worth $8.25 million per season. It’s a notable extension because Swayman has only played a career 132 regular-season games. Now the starter for the Bruins, he leveraged their need to get him back between the pipes and he sat until they offered $66 million with $23 million in signing bonuses.

How does this relate to Skinner? Swayman’s numbers may not be that different than Skinner’s by the time the 2024-25 season comes to a close.

Assuming Skinner plays 55 games this season, he’ll have played 178 regular-season NHL games. If the Oilers go on another run, he could reach the 50 playoff game marker as well. That will have made him more proven as an NHL-caliber star goalie than Swayman. Skinner sits at a career save percentage of .910 and a goals-against average of 2.69. Swayman’s numbers are admittedly a touch better (2.34 and .919) but Skinner could get close with a strong campaign.

Skinner was always going to get a raise. Now, that raise could create issues for the Oilers, a team that also has some other big business to look after.

Is This Swayman Deal a Problem Bad for the Oilers and Good for Skinner?

One could argue that Skinner will be worth $8.25 million when it’s time to sign his extension. As arguably the top Canadian goaltender, that’s not incorrect. That’s still a financial hurdle for Edmonton.

Stuart Skinner could cost the Oilers more than Jeremy Swayman cost the Bruins

Now that the market has been reset, the other issue working against the Oilers is the salary cap. Having gone up this season, it’s projected to go up to $92 million next. The summer after, it could reach as high as $97 million. The Oilers will have to allot a huge chunk of that increase to extensions for Connor McDavid and Evan Bouchard. How much does that leave for Skinner?

At the very least, Edmonton will lose pieces if they want to keep Skinner in the fold and near where the market has been set.

When do the Oilers re-sign Skinner? Do they give him $8.25 million next July 1? Technically, that’s the earliest they can extend him. Or, do they wait and see what he does over the next two seasons, potentially realizing he’s a proven goalie who is arguably better than Swayman? That could mean $9, maybe even $9.5 million per season. If Igor Shesterkin signs for $10.5 million or more, that only hurts the Oilers’ chances of getting a team-friendly deal for Skinner done.

Skinner is not Shesterkin. But, he’s not far off from Swayman. He’s arguably more proven as a playoff performer and he’s the starter on a Stanley Cup contending team. If nothing else, Swayman’s deal just guaranteed Skinner is an $8 million per season goalie if he has another good run in 2024-25.

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