Aston Villa vs Manchester United Prediction: Premier League Match Preview

We look ahead to Sunday’s Premier League game at Villa Park with our Aston Villa vs Manchester United prediction and preview. Will Unai Emery’s men deal another blow to under-fire Erik ten Hag?

Aston Villa vs Manchester United Stats: The Key Insights

• The Opta supercomputer makes Aston Villa favourites for Sunday’s game, giving them a 42% win probability to Manchester United’s 33.2%.
• Man Utd have won 40 Premier League games against Villa, with only the Red Devils themselves beating an opponent more often in the competition’s history (41 versus Everton).
• Jhon Durán averages a goal every 43 minutes at Villa Park in the Premier League, the second-best ratio by a player at a single venue (250+ minutes played there), behind Luis Suárez at Carrow Road (a goal every 38 minutes).

Manchester United are in desperate need of a win when they take on Aston Villa on Sunday, with the pressure piled on Erik ten Hag after last week’s sorry 3-0 loss at home to Tottenham.

United have lost three of their six Premier League fixtures this season, winning just twice – against Southampton and Fulham – while they have lost their last two home matches in the top flight by an aggregate score of 6-0, versus Liverpool and Spurs.

Their tally of seven points is their joint-fewest after six games of any Premier League season (two wins, one draw, three losses), having made identical starts under David Moyes in 2013-14 and Ole Gunnar Solskjær in 2020-21.

They now face another of the league’s top teams when they take on Villa, who are fresh from their midweek UEFA Champions League triumph over Bayern Munich and unbeaten in their last four league matches, winning three and drawing one.

Unai Emery’s side have taken 13 points from their opening six Premier League matches (four wins, one draw, one defeat), making this their best start to a season since 2008-09 under Martin O’Neill (also 13 points).

Making Villa Park a fortress has been key to their success under the Spaniard, who has overseen a return of 74 home points since his first game in charge in November 2022 – a 3-1 win over Man Utd. Only Manchester City (85), Liverpool (84) and Arsenal (81) have earned more home points in that span.

Among all Villa managers to take charge of five or more home top-flight matches, only European Cup-winning boss Tony Barton (70%, won 37/53) has a better home win percentage than Emery (66%, won 23/35).

One player in particular who has enjoyed his recent outings in Birmingham is Jhon Durán, who beat Manuel Neuer with a spectacular strike to seal a famous Villa victory on Wednesday.

All five of his goals in all competitions this season have come from the bench, with his four league strikes coming from just 2.1 expected goals (xG). He has also netted four league goals in his last four league appearances at Villa Park, all as a substitute.

The 20-year-old averages a goal every 43 minutes at Villa Park in the competition, the second-best ratio by a player at a single venue (250+ minutes played there), behind Luis Suárez at Carrow Road (a goal every 38 minutes).

Overall, Durán is averaging a goal every 39 minutes this season in the league – by comparison, 10-goal Erling Haaland averages one every 54 minutes.

The fact he has yet to earn a regular starting spot is down to the form of fellow forward Ollie Watkins, who has been involved in 55 goals in 67 Premier League appearances since Emery joined Villa (36 goals, 19 assists), with only Haaland (65) and Mohamed Salah (60) scoring or assisting more goals in that time. Watkins is looking to score in four games in a row in the competition for the first time since April 2023, having netted against Everton, Wolves and Ipswich Town in recent weeks.

Duran and Watkins will be expecting some joy against United’s porous defence. The Red Devils have lost eight Premier League matches by a margin of three or more goals under Ten Hag. Since the start of 2022-23, the only current Premier League managers to suffer more defeats by such a margin are Gary O’Neil and Sean Dyche (nine each).

Despite conceding only eight goals, United have an expected goals against (xGA) figure of 11.04 so far in the Premier League this season – that is the fifth-worst total in the division, lower than only the three promoted clubs and Brentford.

That is despite United allowing just 74 shots, which ranks ninth in the top flight. However, United’s average per-shot xGA is 0.14, which is the second-worst in the league, after Brighton (0.17).

Last time out against Spurs, United – who were reduced to 10 men when Bruno Fernandes was sent off late in the first half (that red card has since been rescinded) – were carved open time and time again.

Spurs generated an xG of 4.59 – the third-highest United have allowed a Premier League opponent since records began in 2009. Only versus Arsenal in December 2017 (a 3-1 win) and against Man City in October 2011 (a memorable 6-1 loss at Old Trafford), have United given up a greater quality of chances in a Premier League match.

United also saw their opponents have nine big chances – only in five previous games in Premier League history has a team had more big chances in one game (Man City vs Watford 2019-20, Man Utd vs Sunderland 2012-13, Arsenal vs Fulham 2018-19, Arsenal vs Stoke City 2015-16, Man City vs Crystal Palace 2017-18 – all 10).

While Thursday’s 3-3 draw at Porto in the Europa League ended in a morale-boosting late equaliser from substitute Harry Maguire, Ten Hag’s main focus for Sunday must be finding a stable defensive formula. If Matthijs de Ligt and Lisandro Martínez are left isolated versus Villa’s pacy attackers, the noise surrounding the Dutchman’s future could be ratcheted up even more.

Aston Villa vs Manchester United Head-to-Head

Despite the hosts coming into this as favourites, it is worth noting that Man Utd have a great record against the Villans.

United have won 40 Premier League games against Villa, with only the Red Devils themselves beating an opponent more often in the competition’s history (41 versus Everton).

Villa have won just one of their last 25 Premier League home games against United (eight draws, 16 losses), with that victory coming in Emery’s first game in charge of the club in November 2022 (3-1).

Aston Villa vs Manchester United Prediction

Given Villa’s fine form and United’s dismal start to 2024-25, it is no surprise to see the Opta supercomputer side with the hosts.

Villa are the favourites with a 42.0% win probability, while United came out on top in 33.2% of the model’s simulations. The likelihood of a draw is 24.8%.

In our overall season projections, Villa are given a 17.7% chance of replicating last season’s top-four finish to secure a Champions League berth. However, United are assigned just a 1.2% chance of doing so.

Aston Villa vs Manchester United Predicted Lineups

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

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