Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree: Odds, full fight preview and prediction

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Light Heavyweight knockout artists Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree will clash TONIGHT (Sat., Oct. 5, 2024) at UFC 307 inside Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah.

I don’t think there’s any great overarching narrative to this match up. It’s really quite simple: “Poatan” keeps knocking everyone out and has become one of UFC’s biggest stars, so the promotion isn’t in a huge rush to book him versus a talented wrestler in Magomed Ankalaev. In need of a foil to Pereira and a main event to save this fairly lackluster pay-per-view (PPV), UFC turned to Rountree, the exciting-but-flawed heavy hitter was suspended for a failed drug test earlier this year.

Realistically, it’s a match up designed to end quickly and (most likely) grant Pereira another highlight-reel knockout win. Rountree, meanwhile, gets his chance to play spoiler and score one of the biggest title upsets in recent memory.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Pereira vs. Rountree Betting Odds

Alex Pereira victory: -470
Alex Pereira via TKO/KO/DQ: -330
Alex Pereira via submission: +1600
Alex Pereira via decision: +900
Khalil Rountree victory: +360
Khalil Rountree via TKO/KO/DQ: +500
Khalil Rountree via submission: +3000
Khalil Rountree via decision: +1600
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Pereira Wins

Pereira has quickly built up an argument as one of the very best strikers in mixed martial arts (MMA) history. His power is simply ferocious, the kind of gift that gives his opponents no margin for error. His wrestling and grappling remain thoroughly okay, but thus far, nobody has been able to capitalize.

Let’s not overcomplicate things here: “Poatan” is a way better kickboxer than Rountree. No amount of passion for Muay Thai is going to change that at this stage of the game. Rountree hits hard enough that Pereira must remain focused and stay defensively aware, but his setups are trickier and his connections more devastating.

For all his offensive potency, Rountree still isn’t that great at seeing straight shots coming. If Pereira establishes his body jab like usual, I would expect a big connection upstairs sooner than later, especially if he can feint and draw out Rountree’s check hook counter.

How Rountree Wins

Rountree has come a long way since his The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) days. Embracing Muay Thai really has proven a successful strategy for the striker, who has turned his athleticism into a more serious asset by refining his range striking so thoroughly.

I think it would be silly for Rountree not to at least pretend like he’s going to wrestle a bit. One running double leg — surely a big athletic guy like Rountree can do those, yeah? It’s not complicated — attempt or even just some slaps on the lead thing could help force Pereira out of kickboxing mode just a bit and keep him honest, even if the wrestling doesn’t amount to much.

Otherwise, I think Rountree has to punish Pereira’s square stance. Israel Adesanya did this well with straight punches to the chest, an idea Rountree could copy. Teep kicks could be available as well. Maybe even that infamous side kick to the knee? Pereira is so dangerous when comfortable in the pocket, so knocking him out of his usual stance a bit could take some of the sting of his shots.

Lastly, Rountree has to remain ready to counter. Pereira puts himself in danger chasing opportunities, and Rountree certainly hits hard enough to capitalize proved he doesn’t get overwhelmed and keeps his eyes sharp.

Pereira vs. Rountree Prediction

There’s no logical reason to pick anything other than Pereira by knockout.

I like watching Rountree fight, but he’s been on UFC’s roster for the eight years and has never beaten an elite fighter. He’s not that far removed from unimpressive performances. He’s certainly a live dog thanks to his own power and a slight youth advantage, but the odds of an upset are long for a reason. In a “Striker vs. Striker” match up, why not pick the genuinely world-class kickboxer?

Prediction: Pereira via knockout (-330)

LIVE! Watch UFC 307 PPV On ESPN+ Here!

Championship Doubleheader! Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah, on Sat., Oct. 5, 2024, with a pair of thrilling championship bouts at the helm. In UFC 307’s pay-per-view (PPV) main event, Light Heavyweight champion, Alex Pereira, goes for his third successful title defense of 2024 when he collides with No. 8-ranked contender, Khalil Rountree Jr., in a battle of ferocious knockout artists. Meanwhile, in UFC 307’s championship co-headliner, women’s Bantamweight roost-ruler, Raquel Pennington, defends against former titleholder and No. 1-seeded contender, Julianna Pena, in a grudge match dating back to The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 18 more than one decade ago. UFC 307 will also feature the return of former pound-for-pound great, Jose Aldo, as well Kayla Harrison, Kevin Holland and so much more! It’s must-watch action from “SLC!” UFC 307’s start time is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. ET (Prelims card) and 10 p.m. ET (PPV main card).

Don’t miss a single second of EPIC face-punching action!

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 307 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6:30 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPNews at 8 p.m. ET), before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

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Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree: Odds, full fight preview and prediction | UFC 307