A Step Up in Class Could Be Telling for Jayden Daniels

Daniels has been the best rookie of the 2024 NFL Draft class so far, and even an early MVP candidate for the surprising Commanders. Is he the real deal? We’ll soon find out.

Seemingly every year there is at least one worst-to-first team in the NFL.

But it can be so difficult to identify which of the eight downtrodden teams from last season can rise from the ashes to win their divisions.

Sometimes it is a new coach who can spark improvement. Other times a team gets better through free agency or the improvement of its returning players.

Only rarely can a rookie make an immediate impact and propel his team from the division’s cellar to the penthouse.

Then again, quarterback Jayden Daniels certainly qualifies as rare.

Daniels’ NFL career is off to a torrid start, and the early MVP candidate has powered the Washington Commanders to the top of the NFC East standings at 3-1 after the team was 4-13 last year.

While Washington has miles to go before securing a worst-to-first transition, Daniels has Commanders fans salivating at the possibilities. He may have been the second overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, but he’s been the most successful rookie four weeks into the season.

After a stunning campaign at LSU last year that earned him the Heisman Trophy, many fans were familiar with Daniels’ speed and electric playmaking ability, but he has already shown polish from the pocket beyond his years.

Daniels is completing an NFL-best 82.1% of his passes, while his 8.46 yards per attempt rank fourth and his 107.4 passer rating ranks third. A fifth straight game with over 70.0% completion percentage on 20 or more attempts would tie Derek Carr and Alex Smith for the longest such streak by any player to start a season since 1950.

Daniels is also third in the league in EVE, which measures average yards gained compared to the league-wide expected amount in a given situation. His 0.9 average yards gained through the air rank behind only Brock Purdy of the San Francisco 49ers and Sam Darnold of the Minnesota Vikings.

His excellence, however, has come against weaker competition, with his last two games against the 29th- and 27th-ranked scoring defenses.

The task will be greater on Sunday when Daniels leads the Commanders (3-1) against the Cleveland Browns (1-3). Our prediction model gives Washington a 60.9% chance of winning this matchup and its first 4-1 start since 2008.

Kingsbury’s Return

While Daniels has been the face of the early turnaround in Washington, the whole offense has been humming through four games under new offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury.

With his experience with spread offenses and dual-threat quarterbacks, Kingsbury has built a system that utilizes Daniels’ strengths while limiting his burden to carry the team early in his rookie year.

Kingsbury has placed a focus on the run, especially early in games, and Daniels’ rushing ability has helped open up running lanes for other players.

Pct. of Rush Plays in First Half

1. 59.8% – Washington Commanders    
2. 55.6% – Green Bay Packers    
3. 54.1% – New Orleans Saints       
4. 51.8% – Los Angeles Chargers      
5. 50.0% – Detroit Lions           

With Sam Howell at quarterback last season, running back Brian Robinson Jr. averaged 48.9 yards per game and had four rushing touchdowns all season. This season with Daniels under center, Robinson is running for 76.8 yards per game and already has three touchdowns.

Kingsbury’s offense has set Daniels up for success, with the Commanders scoring on 67.6% of their drives this season, easily the best mark in the NFL.

Offensive Scoring Efficiency

1. 67.6% – Washington Commanders    
2. 57.5% – New Orleans Saints       
3. 57.1% – Cincinnati Bengals       
4. 51.3% – San Francisco 49ers      
5. 48.8% – Buffalo Bills             

When the Commanders have turned to the air, it is not surprising to see Kingsbury dialing up easy throws for his rookie quarterback. Daniels has thrown 23 screen passes so far this year, second only to fellow rookie Caleb Williams (25).

While Kingsbury has used easy throws and the ground game to build Daniels’ confidence and keep him from taking hits, the rookie’s numbers in key areas indicate he may not need the training wheels for much longer.

Washington is second in the league with a 45.5% success rate on third-down pass plays. Even on 3rd-and-long (7 or more yards to gain), the Commanders have a pass success rate of 37.5%, which is third in the NFL.

That third-down efficiency has helped head coach Dan Quinn’s team control the ball and limit exposure to a struggling defense.

Teams With the Most 5-Minute Drives

• 11 – Washington Commanders       
• 10 – New York Giants         
• 10 – Philadelphia Eagles         
• 9 – Arizona Cardinals        
• 9 – New Orleans Saints        
• 9 – Pittsburgh Steelers      
• 9 – San Francisco 49ers          

Key vs. Browns: Handle the Blitz

While Daniels’ rookie season has gotten off to a fantastic start, the level of competition will increase as he faces a Cleveland defense that can bring the heat.

Led by edge rusher Myles Garrett, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, the Browns are an intimidating opponent for a rookie quarterback.

Despite dealing with foot injuries, Garrett already has 4.0 sacks, and the Browns aren’t afraid to bring extra rushers. Cleveland blitzes on 40.1% of defensive snaps, well above the league average of 32.4%.

With a talented front seven and an aggressive scheme, the Browns are pressuring opposing quarterbacks on a league-high 51.8% of drop backs. That figure jumps to a 70.6% pressure rate in the red zone.

That aggressive style has helped Cleveland force opponents into negative plays and contain the running game with defenders playing downhill.

Pct. of Opp. First-Down Rush Plays for 4+ Yards

1. 34.5% – Jacksonville Jaguars   
2. 37.1% – Denver Broncos           
3. 38.5% – New York Jets            
4. 39.3% – Cleveland Browns      
5. 40.0% – Pittsburgh Steelers   

With perhaps less reliance on the ground game, Daniels may be forced into more obvious passing situations when the Browns can bring the heat.

Daniels has handled pressure reasonably well so far – and far beyond his experience would indicate – but there is still room for improvement.

Daniels has a terrific 115.7 passer rating against blitzing defenses, ranking fourth among qualified quarterbacks, and two of his touchdowns have come in blitzing situations.

He has, however, taken five sacks against the blitz, tied for fifth most. He has also logged 11 rush attempts on designed pass plays against the blitz as he adjusts to reading defenses at the NFL level and making protection calls.

Perhaps the simplest and most crucial quantification of Daniels’ early success is that the Commanders have only one turnover. And that was a second-quarter interception last week against the Cardinals that hardly mattered in the 42-14 victory.

Washington will need to continue to protect the ball against a high-pressure Cleveland defense, and Daniels’ decision-making will again be crucial.

If Daniels can keep his poise against the Browns, the Commanders could secure a 4-1 start and send the nation’s capital into a delirium heading into a Week 6 showdown against the Baltimore Ravens.

Stats and facts provided by Stats Perform’s data insights team. Be sure to check out our MLB, NBA, NFL and college football coverage. And follow us on X and Instagram for more!