The Aces Have No Choice But to Turn to Megan Gustafson » Winsidr

Unanimous. Or, rather, U’nanimous. 

When it came to taking home the MVP this year, A’ja Wilson had no competition. She saw that fourth-place vote last year and said “bet.”

But even as the unquestioned best player in the world and the runner-up for Defensive Player of the Year, Wilson has needed help in the semifinals against the Liberty.

Help that she hasn’t received yet defensively, and now, the Aces’ backs are against the wall, down 2-0 in the best-of-5 series

Like most teams, the Aces have tightened up their rotation in the playoffs, but coach Becky Hammon has yet to find an answer to counter the length and size that the Liberty present

In Game 1, it was inserting Kiah Stokes into the starting lineup. But Stokes ended up shooting 0-of-1 from the field, and finished as a -9 plus/minus for the game.

In Game 2, it was Alysha Clark who entered the starting five, drawing a matchup with Breanna Stewart, who has five inches on her.

In both games, a similar question was being asked from Vegas fans tuning in: where is Megan Gustafson?

Gustafson, an offseason acquisition whose 6-foot-3 frame would help the Aces replace the loss in size of Candace Parker, didn’t play in Game 1. 

People noticed–including reporters who spoke to Hammon ahead of Game 2.

“It’s a really fast game, so she didn’t see a lot of time,” Hammon said to Callie Law of the Review Journal regarding the reason why Gustafson didn’t appear in Game 1. “I imagine she’s gonna get some tonight [Game 2].”

Well, Hammon was right about one thing. It was a fast game, again, but Gustafson didn’t see any court time.

Both teams–in fact, all four remaining teams in the WNBA semifinals–went with an eight-person rotation Tuesday night in both Game 2s. But for a team who likes to count on its veterans off of the bench, only Tiffany Hayes had an impact for the Aces. 

Sydney Colson played five first-half minutes, committing costly turnovers and didn’t see the floor the rest of the game. Stokes played a total of seven minutes before leaving the game in the third quarter with a head injury after colliding with Jonquel Jones on a loose ball.

The issue with Hammon playing small ball against the Liberty is that there’s an inherent mismatch on every single possession. Sure, Clark hit a three on the opening possession of the game to get the night started for the Aces, but it was a possession a couple of minutes later that really highlighted the issues with the lack of size for the Aces.

Breanna Stewart brought the ball up court, with Sabrina Ionescu and Jones on the slots. Stewart passed it to Ionescu, who sealed her defender, Jackie Young. Stewart made a quick cut into the lane, running right off of Ionescu and Young to seal Clark in the high post. Ionescumade the entry pass, allowing Stewart to use her size for a turnaround jumper over Clark for the easy bucket.

Fadeaway Stew in FULL effect! 🪣 pic.twitter.com/Ax1RRvQY6O

— New York Liberty (@nyliberty) October 1, 2024

Would Gustafson herself stop this? No, not by herself. But does she have the size to help the Aces against Stewart and Jones? Yeah, she does.

See, the Aces have Wilson guarding Jones, which makes sense. But if another big like Gustafson was worked into the rotation–over Stokes, specifically–you have a big who can switch off with Wilson, allowing Wilson to guard Stewart and not worry about a clear mismatch with Jones on Clark or an undersized guard.

The latter is something that the Liberty looked to take advantage of in the fourth quarter, as Jones had Jackie Young deep in the paint on two instances–once in transition and once off a set–that resulted in clear mismatches but bad passes from Betnijah Laney-Hamilton and Courtney Vandersloot, respectively.

New York has been able to get clean looks in the paint this series to a point where Hammon called consecutive timeouts in Game 2 to address it with her team.

Now, size doesn’t always mean solid defense. It’s Gustafson’s weakness, if we are being truthful. Her 100.8 Player Defensive Rating, per Her Hoop Stats, is 4.3 worse than that of Stokes. But size does make it a lot harder for the Liberty to use their length at ease as we’ve seen them do so far in this series.

What’s more is that Gustafson also isn’t a net-zero on offense like Stokes is, either. The Iowa grad is shooting 38.6 percent from three-point range, accounting for a team-high 60.4 FG%.

Gustafson is able to stretch the floor, opening up the paint for Wilson to do her thing and provide the spacing needed for the Vegas guards.

The Aces faced a “must-win” game in Game 2, per Hammon, but now, are in a situation where they must come back from an 0-2 deficit. 

Going away from the small-ball lineup and giving 8-10 minutes to Gustafson won’t fix the issues alone, but it’ll be enough to steal Game 3 and continue the series.