Jose Aldo vs. Mario Bautista: Odds, full fight preview and prediction

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Bantamweight standouts Jose Aldo vs. Mario Bautista will go to war this weekend (Sat., Oct. 5, 2024) at UFC 307 inside Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah.

Generally, we hate to see aging legends return after retirement. Former Featherweight kingpin and all-time great candidate Aldo continues to buck trends, however. The 38-year-old Brazilian returned after nearly two years of retirement to beat the breaks off Jonathan Martinez, a talented contender at the height of his powers.

“Scarface” has still got it, only losing to champion Merab Dvalishvili in the last four years.

As for Bautista, the MMA Lab-trained representative has certainly earned this step up in competition. Winner of his last six, Bautista has steadily climbed the ladder, scoring a variety of finishes in the process of proving himself a genuine Bantamweight contender.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Aldo vs. Bautista Betting Odds

Jose Aldo victory: +124
Jose Aldo via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
Jose Aldo via submission: TBD
Jose Aldo via decision: TBD
Mario Bautista victory: -148
Mario Bautista via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
Mario Bautista via submission: TBD
Mario Bautista via decision: TBD
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Aldo Wins

Now in the twilight of his career, Jose Aldo somehow still remains a fairly elite Bantamweight, as well as the only man to stop all of Merab Dvalishvili’s takedown attempts. A masterful striker with the best takedown defense in MMA history, Aldo’s Achilles heel is likely his output and conditioning.

At high elevation in Salt Lake City, that’s a concern. Aldo actually won the first round against “The Machine” in Salt Lake two years ago, but he just didn’t do much for the next two rounds and coughed up a decision. Whether elevation or general cardio was to blame, Aldo can’t let that happen here.

Fortunately, Bautista cannot win this fight without exchanging with Aldo. In his last bout, Aldo controlled the range and flow of the fight perfectly by picking apart Martinez and interrupting his movement. Martinez couldn’t get anything going, and so he couldn’t wear on Aldo’s gas tank and try to take over via volume.

Expect Aldo to attempt the same here.

How Bautista Wins

Bautista wrestled in high school, has a jiu-jitsu black belt, and has good power in his hands. The well-rounded rising contender likes to put the pace on his opposition, really forcing the issue and putting his foes in bad position when they respond poorly to his pressure.

If we look at Aldo’s past defeats, Bautista seems more able to replicate the success of Max Holloway or Petr Yan than Alexander Volkanovski or Marlon Moraes. Relentless pressure, feints, and combination boxing is a better bet for Bautista than trying to outfox Aldo at distance, particularly since he’ll have elevation on his side.

Of course, pressuring Aldo is not easy. The Brazilian has a lot of tricks up his sleeves, and this is only a three-round fight. To make the most of this strategy, Bautista has to try to overload Aldo’s senses with constant feints and misdirection. He also cannot let Aldo be the only man in the cage punching the body, which could go a long way in slowing the former champion down.

Aldo vs. Bautista Prediction

I know this isn’t an X-Factor article, but the X-Factor here is definitely the elevation. Can Aldo keep up his usual pace or something close to it in Salt Lake City at 38 years of age? Smart money says no, because every trend in the book says that 38-year-old Bantamweights don’t win fights against good, ranked opposition in their prime.

Keep that bit of logic and history in mind before tailing my prediction, but I believe Aldo can do it. Simply put, it takes a generational talent to out-strike Aldo even at this stage of the game. Dvalishvili was able to sneak one away from “Junior” by holding him along the fence, but he’s the best in the world at 135-pounds right now, and it was still far from impressive.

Bautista doesn’t have the chain wrestling or otherworldly physicality of Dvalishvili. He has to strike with Aldo, and elevation or not, that very rarely goes well for most.

Prediction: Aldo via decision

Jose Aldo vs. Mario Bautista: Odds, full fight preview and prediction | UFC 307