4 picks our gambling expert loves

Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling-tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com’s expert prognosticator Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network devoted to sports and sport betting. You can follow on Twitter at @LasVegasGolfer, and you can read his picks below for the Sanderson Farms Championship, which gets underway Thursday in Jackson, Miss. Along with Kannon’s recommended plays, you’ll also see data from Chirp Golf, a mobile app that features both Free-To-Play and Daily Fantasy golf contests where you can win cash and prizes with each round and tournament.

The FedEx Cup Fall returns to action this week in Mississippi at the Country Club of Jackson for the Sanderson Farms Championship. Seven events remain in the PGA Tour’s Fall Series, going basically every week from now until Thanksgiving.

The Sanderson Farms Championship has been around on Tour since 1968 and has been held at this venue since 2014. The Country Club of Jackson is a par 72 that measures close to 7,500 yards. The most recent remodel of the course was performed by John Fought, whose design work is heavy on the Donald Ross-type style.

In recent editions, the course has favored the bombers over those who lean on driving accuracy. The greens are Bermudagrass and many feature the Ross-style run-off areas around the edges. Luke List is your defending champion and he did it with length off the tee and a red-hot putter.

The golf course is one of the easier tests on Tour. The average winning score over the last 10 years is 19 under par. Fittingly, the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas has the winning score proposition posted at under/over 269.5 or 18.5 under par.

Statistically, it was pretty basic for me this week. I leaned on Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Par 5 Scoring, and Par 4 Scoring on those measuring between 400-450 yards. I looked at Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass) and also Birdies or Better Gained.

As for correlated courses, I wanted to focus on courses that demand some length off the tee. Vidanta Vallarta, TPC Craig Ranch, Corales Golf Club, and the Stadium Course at PGA West all made my list. Torrey Pines is another at which we know length is necessary and the fairway width is very similar to what we have here at Jackson. Certainly there are differences elsewhere between the two tracks, but it is interesting that Luke List is a former winner at both courses.

It was a solid performance here in the column last week if you were following along as three of our four plays in the Top Scorer markets came home at the Presidents Cup. Collin Morikawa finished in a tie for first on the United States side and both Si Woo Kim and Taylor Pendrith tied for Top Scorer on the International side. Back to a traditional, stroke-play tournament, let’s see what we can do for an encore.

Patrick Fishburn (30-1)

After missing the cut in seven of his first eight starts this season, the Tour rookie has missed only one in his last five starts with two third-place finishes, a sixth, and a 15th.  He fits the mold well for this golf course as he hits it long and he can putt. Over the last 36 rounds, Fishburn ranks fourth in this field for SG: Off the Tee and for SG: Par 5s. He’s 37th in SG:: Putting (Bermudagrass). He ranks third on Tour in Greens in Regulation. While Fishburn may be relatively new to the scene, with only one player in this field ranked in the top 50 in the OWGR, why not play the hot hand? 

Jhonattan Vegas (35-1)

Speaking of hot hand, it was the longtime Tour veteran, Vegas, who just won two months ago in Minnesota. Putting has never been his strong suit — except for when he wins golf tournaments — but he’s forever been one of the very best on Tour off the tee. Vegas is 116th in this field for SG: Putting (Bermudagrass) over the last 36 rounds but he also ranks top-11 for SG: Off the Tee, on approach, on the Par 5s, and in Birdies or Better Gained. Stay hot, Jhonny.

Ben Griffin (35-1)

Griffin was one of four players who came up short in a playoff loss to Luke List here last season and he comes in playing well again this year. He was runner-up at the Canadian Open back in June, fifth at the John Deere Classic in July, and seventh at the Wyndham Championship (Donald Ross design) back in August. He’s tremendous on approach and on the Par 4s measuring 400-450 yards — and he ranks second in this field for SG: Putting (Bermudagrass) over the last 36 rounds.

Kevin Yu (120-1)

We’re going to wrap up the card here with a triple-digit, long bomb — and speaking of bomb, Yu can certainly get it out there, ranking 23rd on Tour in Driving Distance and eighth in this field for SG: Off the Tee over the last 36 rounds. Like Vegas, he ranks very high in the ball-striking categories but very low with the putter. Earlier this year, Yu was excellent at two of our correlated courses, taking third at the American Express (Stadium Course), and sixth at the Farmers Insurance Open (Torrey Pines). If he can dial up that form and find a hot putter this week, he’ll be in contention.

Who Chirp Golf players are picking this week