Sun-Lynx preview: One factor that could decide high-stakes matchup

Sun-Lynx preview: One factor that could decide high-stakes matchup originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston

The Connecticut Sun have reached the WNBA semifinals for the sixth consecutive season. But if they want to punch their ticket to the WNBA Finals, they’ll need to elevate their game.

After sweeping Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever in their best-of-three first-round series, the No. 3 seed Sun will face the No. 2 seed Minnesota Lynx, who dispatched the Phoenix Mercury in Round 1 and happen to be the hottest team in the league.

The Lynx have lost just two games since mid-July, going 14-2 to finish the regular season and sweeping the Mercury 2-0 to begin the playoffs. They’re powered by superstar forward Napheesa Collier, who finished tied for fourth in the WNBA in scoring this season (20.4 points per game) and scored 80 points combined in Minnesota’s two playoff wins.

The New York Post’s Jenna Lemoncelli joined NBC10 Boston’s Hannah Donnelly on a new On Her Mark podcast to break down what to expect in this series and what makes the Lynx so dangerous.

On Her Mark Podcast: CT Sun vs. Indiana Fever – Game 2 Recap | Listen and Subscribe

“I expect heavy defense, physicality, high-scoring games,” Lemoncelli told Donnelly. “Napheesa Collier dropped 42 to sweep the Mercury. I mean, she’s just in her bag this season. A lot of people are underestimating the Lynx, and that is my big hot take out of everything. I think they’re the dark horse in all of this.

“I’m expecting, again, heavy physicality. You might see technical (fouls) being thrown around. And I think it’s high-level basketball. You’re going to see that.”

Connecticut boasted the WNBA’s best scoring defense this season, which could bode well in their quest to contain Collier. But Lemoncelli believes the series will be decided on the other end of the court, where the Sun will need to have a more potent offensive attack — particularly beyond the arc.

“I think it’s going to be a huge issue for Connecticut. If they don’t find some type of outside shooting — they’re going to need it from (DeWanna) Bonner and they’re going to really need it from DiJonai (Carrington) — then that’s going to cost them this series, in my opinion,” Lemoncelli said.

“… We know that they can play defense. It’s there. It’s evident. But it’s going to be that three-ball, because they’ve struggled with that. We’ve been saying this for years about the shooting with them. So, they’re going to really need help from DiJonai on that end of the ball and DeWanna Bonner, especially.”

To Lemoncelli’s point, the Sun made just 5.9 3-pointers per game this season, second-to-last in the WNBA. They’ll need to increase that output in this series to keep up with the Lynx, especially if Collier is on her A-game.

The good news is that Connecticut may have an X-factor in midseason acquisition Marina Mabrey, who exploded for 27 points and five made 3-pointers in Game 1 against the Fever and followed that up with 17 points and three 3-pointers in Game 2.

If Mabrey can continue her hot shooting in this series and Bonner and Carrington step up offensively as well, that’s the blueprint for the Sun knocking off the red-hot Lynx.

Game 1 is set for Sunday at 8:30 p.m. ET in Minnesota.