UFC Paris main card odds, breakdowns and predictions

This weekend (Sat., Sept. 28, 2024), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) ventures forth to Accor Arena in Paris, France for UFC Paris. It’s really nice to go back on the road for a UFC “Fight Night.” As one would expect, the card heavily features French and European talent from top-to-bottom. All eyes will be on the attempted rebound of Benoit Saint-Denis, who crashed and burned opposite Dustin Poirier after a strong start earlier this year. He faces another veteran contender in Renato Moicano, who is in the midst of something of a resurgence. There’s also a stellar co-main event in Brendan Allen vs. Nassourdine Imavov, as the victor walks away in strong position for a Middleweight title shot in 2025.

Let’s dig into all the main card fights leading up to the co-main event:

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Featherweight: William Gomis (+220) vs. Joanderson Brito (-270)

Best Win for Gomis? Francis Marshall For Brito? Andre Fili
Current Streak: Gomis has won three straight in the Octagon (11 overall), while Brito has won his last five
X-Factor: Brito should be fighting ranked opposition
How these two match up: I’m not sure I understand this match up.

Gomis is a talented French fighter, a long distance kickboxer with crafty setups. He is not, however, blowing his fairly average UFC opposition out of the water. Brito, conversely, has already been facing the bigger names, and he’s usually been finishing them. The Brazilian is downright nasty, a high-powered finished on the feet and the floor alike.

I don’t really see how Gomis wins this fight, why he deserves it, or why the French fanbase should see one of their more talented prospects set up to be destroyed. Brito is a wild fighter focused on offensive above all else, so it’s always possible that he’s caught in the middle of a big swing, but that doesn’t feel particularly likely.

Instead, I’m expecting another “Tubarao” finish. He has the low kicking game to ruin Gomis’ movement, leaving him a sitting duck when the bombs start dropping. Hell, Brito could also probably score a finish by exploding early into a takedown and trying to jump on the back.

Either way, it spells a rough night for “Jaguar.”

Prediction: Brito via knockout

Lightweight: Fares Ziam (+114) vs. Matt Frevola (-135)

Best Win for Ziam? Jai Herbert For Frevola? Drew Dober
Current Streak: Ziam has won three in a row, while Frevola lost his last fight
X-Factor: How does Frevola respond from a knockout loss?
How these two match up: Lightweight match ups are always welcome, and this one features an interesting style clash.

Ziam is a very technical kickboxer. When he puts together combinations, they’re very clean and often attack multiple levels. Frevola is a bit more wild but also hits considerably harder. “The Steamrolla” has a solid background in wrestler, and he’s proven surprisingly good on the counter in several fights.

On paper, I could see Ziam picking apart Frevola. He’s a pretty strong defensive wrestler, and he definitely holds the edge in form on the feet. A seven year advantage in youth, as well as significant height and reach gap, strengthen the reasoning behind a minor upset pick here.

Sadly for the French fans, I think Frevola’s physicality is enough to make up for those disadvantages. He hits so much harder than Ziam and is far more likely to score a takedown. In what’s likely to be a competitive fight that goes 15 minutes, power punches and a big slam or two is likely to influence the judges.

Prediction: Frevola via decision

Welterweight: Kevin Jousset (+124) vs. Bryan Battle (-148)

Best Win for Jousset? Kenan Song For Battle? Takashi Sato
Current Streak: Jousset has won two in a row in the Octagon (five overall), while Battle is unbeaten in his last three
X-Factor: Battle seems to improve considerably between fights
How these two match up: This should be a scrappy fight.

Jousset has a long background in Judo, and those skills occasionally make an appearance in the form of high-amplitude clinch throws. In his UFC career, however, he’s been incredibly active and pushed a really high pace on the feet, though he’s still not the prettiest technician.

Battle is a really well-rounded prospect. Huge for the Welterweight division, Battle has a knack of catching his opponents coming forward or circling away with big shots. That opportunism separates him from the pack at 170 lbs., and it has helped him build up an impressive 5-1 UFC record.

The most notable advantage I see here is Battle’s kickboxing edge. Jousset is game, but he never looks overly comfortable in exchanges. He prefers to kick at distance, which would seem to play into the lankier man’s game. There is the question of whether or not he can blanket Battle like Rinat Fakhretdinov … probably not. Fakhretdinov is a monstrously physical Welterweight in a way that Jousset cannot match, and Battle looked good recently in denying Ange Loosa’s takedown attempts.

I expect most of this fight to take place on the feet, and Battle is the sharper man in that realm.

Prediction: Battle via decision

Featherweight: Morgan Charriere vs. Gabriel Miranda

Best Win for Charriere? Pedro Souza For Miranda? Shane Young
Current Streak: Charriere lost his last bout, while Miranda scored his first UFC win
X-Factor: Charriere has way more experience against good opposition
How these two match up: Though Charriere has skills everywhere, I expect this to play out as a striker vs. grappler match up.

“The Last Pirate” really impressed me in his last fight against Chepe Mariscal despite ultimately coughing up a split-decision loss. Against an excellent pressure fighter who is surging up the ranks, Charriere landed his own takedowns as well as funky distance kicks and counter combinations.

It was slick, slick work.

Miranda, conversely, has fought just seven minutes in his three years on the UFC roster. The jiu-jitsu black belt is definitely dangerous on the canvas, but the rest of his game leaves something to be desired.

My thoughts here are probably already clear: Charriere is the better man. Miranda might be able to submit him in a jiu-jitsu match, but he has no trustworthy path to dragging the French athlete to the floor. On the feet, he is woefully outmatched to the point that a guard pull wouldn’t surprise me.

Those rarely work in modern MMA.

Prediction: Charriere via knockout

UFC Paris main card odds, breakdowns and predictions | X-Factor