Europa League Predictions 2024-25: The Opta Projections

Who will win the UEFA Europa League in 2024-25? We answer all the key questions with our Europa League predictions for the upcoming season via our trusty Opta supercomputer.

The UEFA Champions League was back with a bang last week; now, it’s the turn of the UEFA Europa League, with Europe’s second-tier competition taking centre stage with a packed schedule of Matchday 1 fixtures across Wednesday and Thursday.

But much like with the Champions League, this isn’t quite the same Europa League we’ve seen before.

The tournament has increased from 32 to 36 teams and the format is significantly different, mirroring the new-look Champions League.

The previous group stage of four teams in eight groups is no more, replaced by a league phase in which all clubs will play eight matches – two more than before – and are ranked in a single 36-team table.

Another crucial change is that the 36 teams you see in the competition on Matchday 1 are the only clubs who’ll compete in the 2024-25 edition. That’s right, there’s no more Europa League safety net for Champions League sides, meaning Atalanta won’t be able to defend their crown.

Of course, there’s a knock-on effect to that; it also means there’s no Europa Conference League to fall back on for those who don’t reach the Europa League knockouts. There’ll be plenty who feel these changes help maintain the integrity of the Europa League and Conference League.

But back to the table… Finishing in the top eight ensures immediate qualification for the last 16, while the teams between ninth and 24th will enter the play-off round for the right to join the eight best sides in the knockouts. The losers of those play-offs bow out of European competition entirely for the rest of the season, following those who finish 25th and lower.

While the absence of teams dropping down from the Champions League might, in the eyes of some, diminish the attractiveness of the Europa League knockouts, it’s worth bearing in mind that there are plenty of big clubs involved. Furthermore, one of the big draws of this competition is usually having the opportunity to see a broader range of teams than the UCL offers, and this season will be no different.

There will be those who attract most eyes, however. Premier League giants Manchester United stick out like a sore thumb, especially when the embryonic table places them alphabetically between Malmö and Midtjylland, and their domestic rivals Tottenham are something of a behemoth in present company.

European staples Ajax are present, while Athletic Club and Real Sociedad will be flying the Basque flag as they hope to carry on the tradition of La Liga clubs (well, mostly Sevilla) dominating this competition.

There are another pair of bitter rivals representing Serie A in the shape of Roma and Lazio; 2022 champions Eintracht Frankfurt and Hoffenheim will be flying the Bundesliga flag; Lyon and Nice qualified from Ligue 1.

But who is going to go all the way and lift the trophy at San Mamés next year? The Opta supercomputer continues to garner plenty of attention during the domestic league season and it also made some high-profile calls ahead of Euro 2024.

Now, once again, it has not been shy in putting its (robotic) neck on the line. The supercomputer has simulated the 2024-25 competition 10,000 times and confirmed its pre-tournament percentages. So, without further ado, let’s run through its Europa League predictions.

UEFA Europa League 2024-25 Predictions

• Porto (17.8%) are installed as favourites to win this season’s Europa League by the Opta supercomputer.
• Athletic Club (10.9%), whose San Mamés stadium will host the final, are seen as the likeliest to stop Porto.
• Premier League giants Manchester United (7.1%) are only rated as sixth favourites but do have a very good record in this competition.
• Roma (8.2%) will fancy their chances of being a serious threat given their strong showings in European competition over the past few years.
• Tottenham (8.6%) are fourth likeliest to go all the way, while Lazio headline a group of big clubs hoping to stake a claim along with the likes of Fenerbahce, Galatasaray, Real Sociedad, Nice and Eintracht Frankfurt.
• Slavia Prague (9.6%) are surprise third favourites, ahead of many of the competition’s biggest clubs.

Europa League Favourites

This might surprise some, but Porto (17.8%) have been installed as favourites to win the Europa League 2024-25 by the Opta supercomputer.

Porto do have an affinity for this competition, having won it with José Mourinho in 2003 (when it was the UEFA Cup) and in 2011 under André Villas-Boas, who is now their president. They are the only Portuguese club to win the UEFA Cup/Europa League, while just five teams across the continent have won it more often.

Now under the guidance of Vitor Bruno, assistant to Sérgio Conceição during his seven years in charge, Porto are perhaps a little more of an unknown quantity this season. But they are regulars in European competition and have plenty of talent at their disposal.

Given their status as favourites according to the supercomputer, they’re also unsurprisingly projected to be the likeliest to reach the last 16, doing so in a massive 87.6% of the simulations.

That can probably be partly explained by the fact they have reached the knockouts of one of the European competitions in each of the past 18 seasons, last failing in 2005-06 when they finished bottom of a Champions League group that also included Inter, Rangers and Artmedia Bratislava.

Porto are deemed to have comfortably the greatest chance of progressing through the knockout rounds, and they reached the final in over a quarter of the sims (26%).

Second favourites behind Porto are Athletic Club, who lifted the trophy in 10.9% of the 10,000 pre-tournament simulations by the Opta supercomputer.

Athletic haven’t won this competition before, despite reaching the final in 1977 and 2012. They qualified this season after finishing fifth in La Liga last term, and with the vastly experienced Ernesto Valverde in charge, they’ll be a match for anyone.

They are seen more as the best of the chasing pack as opposed to direct rivals to Porto according to the projection model, though, making it to the final – which will of course be played in their own stadium – in 19.8% of the predictions.

It’s worth noting that they haven’t been European regulars for a while, though; this is their first season in any of the three UEFA competitions since 2017-18, when they reached the last 16 of the Europa League. They’ve got to at least the quarter-finals just twice in Europe since the turn of the century.

Athletic could be boosted by their league phase fixture schedule, however. The average rating of their opponents in the Opta Power Rankings is 84.3, whereas Porto’s is 85.6, meaning the latter have the fourth-hardest fixtures according to Opta’s Fixture Difficulty Ranking.

Ranked as third favourites are, rather remarkably, Slavia Prague. They won their first European trophy ever in 9.6% of the Opta supercomputer’s 10,000 season simulations.

Slavia are regulars in recent times on this stage, having reached at least the group stage of one of the European competitions in every season since 2017-18 – before that, their last participation had been in 2009-10.

Their figures are likely helped by the fact they won a Europa League group last season that also included Roma, while they reached the Europa Conference League quarter-finals in 2021-22.

They progressed to the last 16 in 79.9% of the simulations and even got to the semi-finals (31.1%) more often than all but Porto and Athletic. Clearly, the supercomputer sees Slavia as ones to watch.

Best of the Rest

Tottenham are also considered among the biggest threats in the competition. Ange Postecoglou’s men go all the way in 8.6% of the supercomputer’s simulations, while they’re deemed more likely than Slavia to reach the last 16 (81.0%).

They are fancied for a deep run into the tournament by the supercomputer despite an unremarkable record in European knockout ties in recent years.

While they did reach the final of the 2018-19 Champions League, that’s their only instance of getting beyond the last 16 in any European competition since reaching the 2012-13 Europa League quarter-finals.

However, when it comes to the quality available to Postecoglou, Spurs will likely feel confident of reaching the latter stages if such a target is prioritised.

Roma are next, winning their second European trophy in three years in 8.2% of the projections. Nevertheless, the Giallorossi haven’t enjoyed a great start to the season domestically, with their run of no wins in their first four matches costing head coach Daniele de Rossi his job. Ivan Juric is the man at the helm now and did win his first match in charge at the weekend, a 3-0 victory over Udinese.

Despite winning the trophy the fifth-most often in the predictions, six teams actually reached the last 16 (76.2%) more frequently than them in the sims.

Their rocky start to the season will have had an impact here; continue to improve and the prediction model will likely look kinder upon them. After all, they have some talented players available to them and have an excellent recent record in Europe.

They’ve reached at least the last four of the Europa League in the past two seasons, finishing as runners-up in 2022-23. They also made it to the semis in 2020-21 and won the Europa Conference League the season after that. It’s a track record that shouldn’t be dismissed.

Manchester United are, perhaps surprisingly, way down and rated as sixth favourites to win the trophy (7.1%).

In terms of pure talent, they arguably have the strongest squad of all teams in the competition – and almost certainly the most expensive. But Erik ten Hag’s side can be quite difficult to read because of how they tend to blow hot and cold.

The 2023-24 season was largely a bitter disappointment, and yet they still managed to beat Manchester City in the FA Cup final, a victory that ultimately secured their place in this competition. After all, they finished eighth in the Premier League last term, meaning they’d have had no European football at all for the first time since 2014-15 were it not for that success at Wembley. Which Manchester United we’ll see this season remains unclear.

They do have a reasonably good record in the Europa League, though. They were eliminated at the last-16 stage during their first participation (after dropping from the Champions League) in 2015-16, but since then, they’ve reached the semi-finals once, quarter-finals once, been runners-up and lifted the trophy in their four appearances.

United are deemed to be the joint-fifth likeliest team to reach the last eight this time around (47.1%) and make the journey to San Mamés for the final in 14.1%.

Europa League Outsiders

There are another six teams that are deemed to have at least a 3% chance of winning the 2024-25 Europa League, according to the Opta supercomputer.

Lazio are competing in European competition for an eighth successive season and win their first major continental trophy since the 1999 Cup Winners’ Cup in 6.1% of the projections.

José Mourinho could become the first manager to win the competition with three different clubs if he takes Fenerbahce all the way. The Portuguese coach has already won it with Porto and Man Utd, and he takes his current side to the trophy in 3.1% of the supercomputer’s predictions. They are deemed to be among the strongest sides in the tournament – though rivals Galatasaray (5.2%) are rated as having a better chance of going all the way.

Real Sociedad (3.6%), Frankfurt (3.6%) and Nice (3.1%) are the other teams given a success probability of 3% or more in the Europa League this term.

However, according to the Opta Fixture Difficulty Ranking, Fenerbahce play teams with an average Opta rating of 85.7, making theirs the third-hardest schedule in the league phase.

Roma have a pretty difficult slate as well. Their opponents have an average rating of 84.9, and among their fixtures are a trip to Tottenham and home game against Athletic.

The same fixture difficulty ranking calculates Galatasaray to have the most straightforward schedule, with their opponents’ average rating considerably lower (82.4) than anyone else.

Tottenham (83.6) and Frankfurt (83.9) also appear to have kind runs of games, with both avoiding the likes of Porto, Athletic and Manchester United.

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