Ranking the most critical series in last week of 2024 season

This is it. The final week of the 2024 regular season is underway. Strap in for some drama.

Sure, a few playoff berths are already squared away — the Brewers, Dodgers, Guardians, Phillies and Yankees have all punched their tickets — but that still leaves more than half of the 12 spots up for grabs. Plus, there’s more to the postseason than just getting in. Even those clubs already guaranteed to play October baseball still have plenty to worry about, including but not limited to first-round byes (reserved for each league’s top two seeds), home-field advantage and pitching staff configurations.

Still, it’s hard to deny that teams in precarious positions tend to make for the best late-season viewing. With that in mind, here is a ranking of the six most critical series that open on Tuesday — you won’t want to miss these.

(Two other series with significant playoff implications began Monday, with the Mariners spoiling the Astros’ chance to clinch the AL West for a day and the Giants beating the D-backs, who currently hold the third Wild Card spot, a half-game behind the Mets for the No. 2 slot.)

In what has to be a gratifying change of pace for the Mets, the Braves come into this final week of baseball on the outside looking in at them. But defending your position isn’t exactly a walk in the park, either. Since the NL Central contingent bowed out of the Wild Card race, there are four teams left vying for three playoff spots. The Padres have a still-vulnerable 3.5-game lead at the top of the standings, followed by the Mets and D-backs, then by the Braves, who are 1.5 games out of a playoff spot.

This might be hitting just a little too close to home in New York. Two years ago, the Mets played their second-to-last series of 2022 against the Braves under very similar circumstances — on that occasion, they were clinging to a one-game lead in the NL East — and were swept quite neatly. Could we be gearing up for a similarly heartbreaking final week? We’ll find out, but it’s worth noting that the Mets have their rotation set just how they’d want it in such a critical series: in order, Severino, David Peterson and Sean Manaea will get the ball. All three have been excellent down the stretch, although the Braves will counter with three stellar options of their own in Schwellenbach, NL Cy Young Award favorite Chris Sale and Max Fried.

This is the series that could settle the NL West, and in an unusual twist, the (still first-place) Dodgers are in a bit of danger. If there’s one thing the Padres have on them, it’s pitching, and they’re planning to rub salt in that wound this week, with King, Dylan Cease and Joe Musgrove the scheduled starters for their final regular-season head-to-head matchup. (The Dodgers, for their part, will send the rookie Knack, Jack Flaherty and a shaky Walker Buehler to the mound.)

In further bad news for the perennial NL West champs, the Padres only need a tie to win the division, having already clinched the season series (7-3) before a pitch is thrown on Tuesday. In other words, a three-game sweep at the hands of the Padres would mean that the Dodgers, who have ended every day of the 2024 regular season in first place, would officially be a Wild Card team.

Basically, for the Dodgers, this is a final chance to control their own destiny; for the Padres, it’s one last shot at an enormous upset that’s been a long time coming.

Try as they might, the AL playoff frontrunners just couldn’t shake the Tigers. Detroit was 10 games out of a playoff spot on Aug. 4 but has gone 29-14 since and now opens up its matchup with the Rays in playoff position. The Tigers are tied with the Royals and hold a one-game lead over the Twins for the final Wild Card berth. (The Twins, in turn, have a one-game lead over the Mariners.) It’s not a comfortable spot, to be sure, especially given that Detroit would lose any possible tiebreaker scenario to those aforementioned competitors. But having Skubal on the mound to open up their series against the Rays should ease some of their concerns. If the Tigers can take care of business here, they have another advantage: The 120-loss White Sox are coming to town over the weekend to close out the regular season.

Things are suddenly feeling a little bit dire in Kansas City, as the Royals’ slide has reached seven straight losses. They scored one run in their three-game weekend set against the Giants (that’s one run total). The Nationals’ season may effectively be over, but given the damage done by the also-eliminated Giants, Washington’s record provides little comfort, not least because the Twins, a serious threat to the Royals’ first trip to the postseason since 2015, will be facing the NL-worst Marlins this week.

Unfortunately, the Royals just don’t have much time to sort things out. The AL Wild Card race has come down to four teams — Kansas City, Detroit, Minnesota and Seattle are all within two games of each other and playing musical chairs with the second and third spots. The Royals are in possession of one of those spots, but their grip slips a little more every day, and the pressure is on. The good news is that they have two of their best pitchers lined up to go in this series — All-Star lefty Ragans in the opener and then Michael Wacha on Thursday.

The Royals aren’t the only AL Central team that has seen their postseason hopes take a serious hit in recent days and weeks. The Twins are 8-13 in September after getting swept by the Red Sox in a Sunday doubleheader and have fallen out of a playoff spot altogether, although they at least would hold the edge in any tiebreaker involving those other contenders. Seeing the Marlins (7-13 in September) while the Royals are in Washington and the Mariners are in Houston is a perfect setup, but only if they can actually win a couple of games.

About 10 days ago, both teams had circled this series on their schedules as the final battle to settle the AL East. Now, not so much — both teams slumped hard through the summer, but the Yankees have once again emerged in September while the Orioles’ woes have deepened. Baltimore is now six games back with six left to play, so while it’s not impossible they could escape playing in a Wild Card Series, it is vanishingly unlikely. (If the Orioles win out, including a sweep here, they would hold the tiebreaker over the Yankees.)

Even setting that far-fetched scenario aside, there remains work to be done for both teams. The Orioles have a Wild Card berth and home-field advantage in the Wild Card Series to clinch, and the Yankees are some combination of four wins and Guardians losses from clinching home field through at least the ALCS. Guaranteed home field for a potential trip to the World Series is also very much in play. Maybe not much of a nail-biter anymore, but an interesting matchup all the same.