Liverpool vs Bournemouth Prediction | Opta Analyst

Liverpool are predicted to beat Bournemouth this weekend by the Opta supercomputer, but can Arne Slot’s side back that up with all three points at Anfield? We look ahead to Saturday’s Premier League game with our Liverpool vs Bournemouth prediction and preview.

Liverpool vs Bournemouth Stats: The Key Insights

• The Opta supercomputer has Liverpool as big favourites to take the three points, beating Bournemouth in 69.7% of its 10,000 pre-match simulations.
• Liverpool’s 1-0 defeat to Nottingham Forest last time out ended a run of eight straight home league wins for boss Arne Slot. Only once has he lost consecutive home league games as manager, doing so with Feyenoord against Ajax and Vitesse in December/January 2021-22.
• Bournemouth (26) have had more shots from outside the box than any other side in the Premier League this season. Liverpool’s only goal conceded this term came from distance, while 39% of all shots they’ve faced have come from outside the box (11/28).

Two sides hoping to bounce back after home defeats last time out in the Premier League clash this Saturday when Liverpool host Bournemouth at Anfield.

Both sides were beaten 1-0 last weekend, with Liverpool upset by Nottingham Forest while Bournemouth were edged to the three points by Chelsea.

It means Liverpool head into this weekend in fourth, three points off leaders Manchester City, while Bournemouth sit 11th with one win from their opening four games.

Liverpool’s current place in the table doesn’t bode well for Bournemouth, who have won only two of their 29 Premier League away games against teams starting the day in the top four, losing 25 of those matches (two draws) – the exceptions are wins at Stamford Bridge over Chelsea, 3-0 in January 2018 and 1-0 in December 2019.

Bournemouth have also won only one of their last seven Premier League games (two draws, four defeats), coming from 2-0 down to beat Everton 3-2 in their last such away game. Only two teams have ever faced both Merseyside clubs in consecutive Premier League away games and won both times – Arsenal in March 2012 and Man City in February 2021.

They may fancy their chances of coming away with the three points looking at Liverpool’s somewhat patchy recent form at Anfield, however. The Reds have lost two of their last five Premier League home games (three wins), having lost just one of their previous 58 at Anfield.

Following their defeat against Forest last time out, Liverpool are looking to avoid consecutive home league defeats for the first time since March 2021 (a run of six).

The reverse against Forest was a big upset, but Liverpool hit back in midweek, beating Milan 3-1 at San Siro to open their Champions League campaign.

Slot has now won four of his first five games in charge of Liverpool, and a solid defence has been a key part of that. No side has faced fewer shots (28) or conceded fewer goals (one) than Liverpool in the Premier League this season, while they also have the lowest expected goals against (2.8) and fewest shots on target faced (10).

But Bournemouth have showed purpose in attack this term, with only Brighton (67) and Man City (66) having had more shots than them (65) in the Premier League this season.

As has been the case so often before, Mohamed Salah could prove Liverpool’s biggest goal threat on Saturday, especially against an opponent he loves facing.

Salah has scored nine goals in nine Premier League games against Bournemouth, and Andoni Iraola’s men could become the fourth team the Egypt international has reached double figures against in the competition (after Manchester United, Arsenal and West Ham).

In terms of injury news, Bournemouth will be without Tyler Adams and Dango Ouattara, though Kepa Arrizabalaga could return between the sticks.

For Liverpool, they’ll only be missing Harvey Elliott, who isn’t expected to be fit again until late October.

Liverpool vs Bournemouth Head-to-Head

Liverpool have won nine of their last 10 Premier League meetings with Bournemouth, with the exception a 1-0 away defeat in March 2023.

Meanwhile, Bournemouth have lost nine of their 10 away games against Liverpool in all competitions, with a 2-2 draw in the Premier League in April 2017 the only time they’ve taken a point off them at Anfield.

Of course, Bournemouth fans will still have nightmares about their visit to Anfield back in August 2022, when Liverpool secured the joint-biggest Premier League win in history (9-0).

The last meeting between the sides came back in January, with Darwin Núñez and Diogo Jota scoring twice each as Liverpool cruised to a 4-0 win.

Liverpool vs Bournemouth Prediction

Liverpool are backed to bounce back from last weekend’s home defeat with three points here, winning 69.7% of the Opta supercomputer’s 10,000 pre-match simulations.

A first Bournemouth win at Anfield in the club’s history is rated as unlikely, given just a 13.4% chance of coming out on top on Saturday. A draw would be a fantastic result for the Cherries, though they are given just a 16.9% probability of taking a point away from this contest.

Liverpool are expected to finish in the top four come the end of the season, doing so in 93.2% of simulations, though they’re considered third-favourites for the title behind Manchester City (85.9%) and Arsenal (10.1%).

Bournemouth, meanwhile, are expected to finish comfortably in mid-table with just a 5.5% chance of being relegated. The supercomputer currently calculates 12th as their likeliest finishing spot.

Liverpool vs Bournemouth Predicted Lineups

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

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