Playoffs Preview — Connecticut Sun vs. Indiana Fever » Winsidr

The No. 3 Connecticut Sun and No. 6 Indiana Fever open up the best-of-three series in Connecticut, with the potential of the series going to Indiana if a Game Three comes to fruition. The Sun went 3-1 against the Fever in the regular season head-to-head series.

May 14: Sun win 92-71 at Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, CT

May 20: Sun win 88-84 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, IN

June 10: Sun win 89-72 at Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, CT

August 28: Fever win 84-80 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, IN

Before the two teams begin the battle in Connecticut, we turn to our Winsidr reporters Jamauri Bowles and Matt Cohen with their thoughts on the series.

Series Schedule:

Game One: Mohegan Sun Arena – 3:00 p.m. ET on September 22 (ABC)
Game Two: Mohegan Sun Arena – 7:30 p.m. ET on September 25 (ESPN)
Game Three*: Gainbridge Fieldhouse – TBD on September 27 (ESPN2)
*If necessary

Matchups We Can’t Wait to Watch:

Jamauri Bowles: The matchup that I’m curious about is the frontcourt battle between the two teams: how Alyssa Thomas and Brionna Jones matchup against Aliyah Boston and NaLyssa Smith. The physicality in the interior is worth observing. The Sun finished second in the league with an average of 18.1 personal fouls drawn per game. They led the league with not only 20.9 free throws attempted per game but also 15.7 free throws made per game. In the regular season series with the Fever, the Sun averaged 20.0 personal fouls drawn.

Thomas is more than willing to take on physicality and get players in foul trouble. Boston can struggle with foul trouble, so we’ll see how she handles the battles inside. I also think the Sun will take on the challenge of keeping Smith away from the basket and pressuring her into taking tougher and deeper shots, which she can struggle with. Also, who can consistently make plays for others? Of the four players, Thomas is the best playmaker, and that gives Connecticut a significant edge.

Matt Cohen: Indiana’s three-point prowess vs. Connecticut’s perimeter defense is one of the more exciting battles that has nothing to do with individual players. The Fever boast the third-best three-point percentage this season, shooting 35.6 percent from deep. This success comes from having two players in the top 10 for attempts per game: Caitlin Clark (first) and Kelsey Mitchell (seventh), as well as in the top five for makes, with Clark first and Mitchell fifth.

Indiana shot only 23.5 percent from three in the four games against Connecticut this season. If they are going to advance, they will need to shoot much closer to their season average. That won’t be easy, as the Sun are first in opponent three-point attempts, makes and third in three-point percentage. While a three-point barrage isn’t necessarily the requirement for Indiana—a modest fifth in percentage of their points this season came from distance—it will diversify their scoring attack, preventing Connecticut from being able to defend one-dimensionally. 

X-Factors:

JB: I’ll stick to Connecticut’s frontcourt and look at Brionna Jones as an X-Factor. The last regular season meeting between the two teams is the most reliable and valuable since it was the only meeting to take place after the Sun traded for Marina Mabrey. In that meeting on August 28, I was shocked to see that Jones only had two points and one rebound in almost 30 minutes of action. Out of all four meetings, Jones’ least productive game was the one where she played the most minutes. I felt like Connecticut could have won the game if she had a bigger impact, particularly with her rebounding.

I also think motivation will have a big role: she missed most of last year’s regular season and the entire postseason with an Achilles tear. She played all 40 games this year and is certainly determined to help the franchise win its first-ever championship. Jones has to make her presence felt for the Sun to win the series and advance to another semifinal.

MC: The undeniable choice is Clark, but let’s go with NaLyssa Smith. It has become abundantly clear that she has fallen somewhat out of favor in head coach Christie Sides’ rotation, and is in ill-fit with Aliyah Boston in the front court. But if Indiana is going to surprise and beat the Sun twice, they will need the full trio of stars performing at their peak. Finding ways to get Smith the ball and keep her aggressive will assuredly be vital to any success the Fever wish to have.

Bold Predictions:

JB: In one game, Marina Mabrey will come off the bench to score at least 20 points.

Whether she’s a starter or a reserve, Mabrey remains one of the more dangerous shooters in the league. I think she has brought new energy to Connecticut, adding more reliable shooting to the team’s rotation. Mabrey is more than capable of taking over a game, especially if shots are not falling for DeWanna Bonner, Tyasha Harris or DiJonai Carrington.

JB: Connecticut will sweep Indiana.

The talent is certainly there for Indiana, but I think the absence of prior playoff experience for the starters will catch up to them. I’m also concerned about Indiana’s defense; the team was second in the regular season in allowing the most points per game (87.7 PPG). I think Connecticut wins one game by four points or less and the other by double digits.

MC: Alyssa Thomas has a triple-double in two of the three games.

There have only been five triple-doubles ever in WNBA playoffs history, and Alyssa Thomas has three of them. She is going to feast this series and I don’t know how Smith, Boston or anyone in Indiana’s frontcourt is going to stop her.

MC: Indiana wins Game One.

Let’s be really bold here. Yes, I told you Indiana was likely to struggle, but I want this series to be interesting. Caitlin Clark gets 30 points and a near triple-double, winning game one in overtime. 

Stats as of 9/20. Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of WNBA.com.